2017 Milwaukee Lakefront Prediction Contest!
Alright posters and lurkers, let's play a prediction game! I want to hear from everyone. I'd like to hear your prediction for my upcoming Milwaukee Lakefront Marathon on Oct 1st. Please don't be concerned that your time prediction will have much of an impact on my chances. I could run really well, or I could crash and burn. Anything is possible. I will be giving my best effort no matter what. Here are some rules:
1) Predictions must be made after this post either in this journal, to me verbally, or on my Strava account.
2) Only one prediction per person.
3) Predictions must be in by Sunday, September 24th end of day (Central time zone).
4) Winner will be determined by whomever is closest to the final official race time (so not Garmin 26.2 mile time). No "Price is Right" rules, which means you can go over/under on the time prediction and still win. Closest is closest.
5) Predictions can be as close as you like to another person’s guess. So, if someone says 3:03:00, you can guess 3:03:01
6) A prediction must be in time. Thus, a guess of "you'll do your best" or something similar is appreciated but not valid.
7) The tie-breaker will be the person who guessed first. So, if the two closest predictions are 10 seconds off the real time (one person 10 seconds high and the other 10 seconds low), then the person who guessed first is determined to be the winner.
8) In the event I don't finish, the race is cancelled, or I don't have an official time, then there will be no winner.
9) The winner receives one (1) $10 gift card from
Amazon via email.
I think that covers everything. I am free to update these rules if something comes up during the prediction process. I will add any amended rules below this sentence with a time stamp as to when the rules were updated. Everyone is welcome to play!
9/27/17 3:53pm - Allowed
@KSellers88 to predict a time of 3:01:13 even though the prediction window had closed.
Some facts to help you determine my time:
Current Official PRs:
Marathon – 3:20:52 (7:40 min/mile) - 1/8/2017 –
Strava Link
Half Marathon – 1:38:49 (7:33 min/mile) – 12/6/2015 –
Garmin Link
10k – 43:25 (7:00 min/mile) – 1/6/2017 –
Strava Link
5k – 20:30 (6:35 min/mile) – 5/27/2017 –
Strava Link
Current Unofficial PRs:
Marathon – 3:20:52 (7:40 min/mile) – 1/8/2017 –
Strava Link
Half Marathon – 1:36:27 (7:22 min/mile) – 1/8/2017 –
Strava Link
10 mile – 1:09:57 (7:00 min/mile) – 9/14/2017 –
Strava Link
10k – 42:50 (6:55 min/mile) – 4/27/2017 –
Strava Link
5k – 19:21 (6:15 min/mile) – 5/13/2017 –
Strava Link
Mile – 6:01 – 5/13/2017 –
Strava Link
The necessary 26.2 mile pace for a 2:59:XX marathon is a 6:52 min/mile. So, I'm either crazy or nuts!
Training Plan
This is the data from my last four marathons (not including Dopey 2016 which included 22 miles of racing in the days proceeding). All of the times above show each individual marathon tempo training runs. The “training pace” is the scheduled pace from the beginning of the training plan. The “avg T pace” is the average actual training pace. The “race pace” is the actual pace run during the corresponding race per my Garmin. The “R pace over 26.2” is the final time I ran divided by 26.2 miles (to make the official race pace). The “ratio” is the difference in “avg T pace” and “R pace over 26.2” which gives a relationship between actual training pace and final time. The WI and Lake 2016 were 0.5-0.6% slower than training pace. Lakefront 2015 was 2.5% faster than training pace.
-The scheduled training pace of Lakefront 2017 was a 6:58 min/mile (3:02:32 marathon over 26.2 miles).
-The average training pace of all 13 marathon tempo training runs was a 7:01 min/mile.
-The average training pace of all 13 marathon tempo training runs with a T+D adjustment to 100 was a 6:53 min/mile.
-The average training pace of the last 8 marathon tempo training runs was a 6:59 min/mile and a 6:54 T+D adjusted.
-Historically, my HR is between a 148-152 for a marathon. A total of 8/13 M Tempo runs had a HR between 148-152 and 6/8 in the last few weeks.
-When I ran Lakefront 2015, my Garmin measured 26.35 miles (a 0.6% increase).
-When I ran Lakefront 2016, my Garmin measured 26.36 miles (a 0.6% increase).
-Lakefront 2015 was the best I have ever felt running a marathon. If I were to match the splits of Lakefront 2015 relative to my current average training pace (7:01), then I would run a 2:59:08 (6:50 min/mile). This would be a 1:31:34 1st half (6:59 min/mile) and a 1:27:34 2nd half (6:41 min/mile). This takes into account the 0.6% distance increase.
-Lakefront 2016 I was likely overtrained, was not hitting my intervals (only hit 70% on a weekly basis in one of the last seven weeks of training), and suffered a shin splint injury mid-race. If I were to match the splits of Lakefront 2016 relative to my current training pace (7:01), then I would run a 3:04:42 (7:03 min/mile). This would be a 1:31:59 1st half (6:57 min/mile) and a 1:33:43 2nd half (7:09 min/mile). This takes into account the 0.6% distance increase.
-This would suggest the highest probability of my final marathon time lies between 2:59:08 and 3:04:42.
-If were to use only the last 8 M Tempo runs (6:59 average), then the highest probability prediction window would be 2:58:25-3:03:57.
-During this training cycle, I have hit above 80% of M Tempo intervals in 12/13 runs.
-During this training cycle, I have hit 100% of M Tempo intervals in 8/13 runs. I’m usually very grateful to hit one, which I believe did not occur during Lakefront 2016 training. I believe Lakefront 2015 was close to 100% on all M Tempo runs but I don’t have any data to support this idea.
-During this training cycle, my weekly interval hit rates have been 94, 100, 79, 70, 88, 94, 94, 92, 100, 94, 100, and 85%. The interval hit rate of Lakefront 2016 was 65%.
-A Hansons easy pace for a 3:02:30 (my scheduled marathon training pace) is between a 7:54-8:28 min/mile. Of the 38 easy runs done since Hot2Trot (mid-June), only 5 had an average pace between 7:54-8:28. The majority of easy running was done at an average pace between 8:30-9:00.
-The easy day HR goal is <65% HRR which for me is 132 beats per minute. Of the 38 easy runs, 37 had an average HR less than 132 beats per minute. The majority of the easy runs had an average between 125-130.
-The goal of Lakefront 2017 training was to recreate the Lakefront 2015 training outcome. During Lakefront 2015, I ran for about 7:20 hours per week. During Lakefront 2016, I ran for 8:49 hours per week. During Lakefront 2017, I ran for about 7:54 hours per week.
-The T+D for Lakefront 2015 was 79-91 and for 2016 was 121-125. Too soon to predict 2017. The last five years T+D have been 121-125, 79-91, 79-105, 114-125, 77-106, and 69-79.
-My goal is to break 3 hours and run a 2:59:59 or better.
Alright, so let's hear what you've got. I'll update this post as frequently as I can with the current predictions. Along with your prediction, I’d love to hear your reasoning behind it. Good Luck!
Current Predictions
2:48:10 - Jax (Baby Nephew)
2:54:41 - Josh (BIL)
2:55:00 - Barb (GMIL)
2:56:34 - Cassie (Sister)
2:57:00 - Steph (Wife)
2:57:27 -
@kywyldcat03
2:57:33 - Juli (co-worker)
2:58:00 - Harry (GFIL)
2:58:03 - Carol (Mom)
2:58:13 -
@dmross
2:58:18 - Brian (BIL)
2:58:30 -
@JClimacus
2:58:41 - Mark (co-worker)
2:58:46 -
@run.minnie.miles
2:58:58 - Bethany (co-worker)
2:59:00 -
@BikeFan
2:59:22 - Bradley (co-worker)
2:59:31 -
@PCFriar80
2:59:32 - Gary (co-worker)
2:59:39 -
@ZellyB
2:59:47 - Keith (Strava)
2:59:48 -
@pixarmom
2:59:50 -
@mrsg00fy
2:59:51 -
@BrianFromIreland
2:59:56 -
@Dopeyintraining
2:59:57 -
@Dis5150
2:59:58 -
@Anisum
2:59:59 -
@sourire
3:00:01 -
@rteetz
3:00:03 -
@disneydaydreamer33
3:00:17 - Gary (Strava)
3:00:21 -
@garneska
3:00:26 -
@michigandergirl
3:00:29 -
@FFigawi
3:00:47 - Cyndi (MIL)
3:01:13 -
@KSellers88
3:01:20 -
@FredtheDuck
3:01:28 - Gigi (3yr old daughter)
3:01:55 -
@OldSlowGoofyGuy
3:02:17 -
@MissLiss279
3:02:30 -
@roxymama
3:02:52 -
@canglim52
3:02:53 -
@dancingtodisney
3:03:00 - Gerhard (FIL)
3:03:33 - Logan (co-worker)
3:03:59 - Timothy (Strava)
3:04:27 - Ken (Brother)
3:04:32 -
@opusone
3:04:40 - Mashrur (Strava)
3:05:00 - Jaime (Strava)
3:06:20 - Heidi (SIL)
3:07:14 - Sten (Strava)
3:07:15 -
@FelisLachesis