2020 Point Charts

[mustinjourney]

Obviously the % of units booked as smaller components isn't 100%. At somewhere where it's just lockoff's and no smaller units that are dedicated, it's likely far less. And it's also basically a certainty that more 2 BR lockoff's will be booked as the the full unit than before, how much is what we don't know. Thus realistically the difference (if any) in reality is likely to be FAR less, certainly less than 1% total, likely FAR less. Personally I think it'll be about even give or take. Remember that every 2 BR and 3 BR booked as a full villa credits the other side of the ledger.

The thing is, at VGF, every studio is part of a lock-off. And those studios book incredibly fast, as we all know. While there are some 1BR people that might move to 2BRs with the 1BR price increase and 2BR price decrease...I really don't see it making much of a difference, b/c the lock-offs will be removed from inventory the second a studio gets booked.

And what is not evident in my chart is that while the 2BR units did go down overall -- the standard view 2BRs actually increased for Adventure, Choice and premiere seasons...so it's not likely that many people are moving from studios/1BRs to 2BRs.

Nevermind, it's just not feasible for many to go from using 125 points (week in Std Studio in Adventure/choice) to 348/362 points for a 2BR std in those two seasons in 2020.

 

[mustinjourney]

I've redone my charts to be based on the same calendar year. Numbers are just slightly modified -- so the original chart is still pretty useful.

 

[mustinjourney]

And here's a summary of how the points have changed by season and year for results if they rent out 100% studios...



and the "official" point chart, which would coincide with 0% rental of studios...

 

[skier_pete]

Yeah -- the fact that VGF has no dedicated studios or 1BRs, effectively means that they can do ABSOLUTELY anything they want with those points. I think this lawsuit will need to focus on disney being a fiduciary of the members. This is a much bigger deal than the recent announcement regarding resale restrictions and future resorts.

Any actions (and I agree "lawsuit" is almost an impossible target to reach - but perhaps negotiation/arbitration) I believe has to be around that they claim they these are done "to benefit the membership". If I were to be involved with this - that would be my push point. What was the necessity to do this to benefit members. Perhaps it does -but what is it???

 

[motherof5]

For 1 BR there is availability. Studios will be long since booked up. I was saying that at 11 months most days there is at least a shot at a studio, not that the availability remains beyond that.

I agree but lately just looking nothing is avail at 8am for studio on day it opens for values. I have been checking for 2 weeks!

 

[skier_pete]

I agree but lately just looking nothing is avail at 8am for studio on day it opens for values. I have been checking for 2 weeks!

It's early december booking, that's what I would expect.

 

[CarolMN]

Any actions (and I agree "lawsuit" is almost an impossible target to reach - but perhaps negotiation/arbitration) I believe has to be around that they claim they these are done "to benefit the membership". If I were to be involved with this - that would be my push point. What was the necessity to do this to benefit members. Perhaps it does -but what is it???

One of the benefits is that more members will be able to book the smaller units, because a larger proportion of the resort's total points will now be going to book studios (so shorter stays for many of those who booked them before the change, thus freeing up nights for others to book. Having to buy more points is not relevant to this argument, because the additional point purchases still means more points going into the studio categories). FWIW, I do not think that studios will go unbooked for points, other than maybe a stray night here or there. Some members may not agree that this is a benefit, but if you look at the membership as a whole, it's hard to argue. Price goes up when demand for a limited item goes up.

IMO, it is logical that the additional breakage that the lock-off premiums create will show up in the dedicated 2 bedroom categories (because they are still less expensive than the studios and 1 bedrooms). I'm not a fan of the increases, especially for the 1 bedrooms, but I can see there is a benefit to the membership. While we can argue about the 1 bedroom demand, we do not have the actual demand data. We don't have any reliable data re what actually ends up going to breakage (other than it exceeds the budget cap).

On a side note, the "total points cannot increase" requirement is there to prevent developers from selling more points than space allows. To insure that, they really HAD to count all the lock offs as a 2 bedroom. Increasing the lock off premium doesn't result in more contracts for the Developer to sell.

 

[mustinjourney]

Any actions (and I agree "lawsuit" is almost an impossible target to reach - but perhaps negotiation/arbitration) I believe has to be around that they claim they these are done "to benefit the membership". If I were to be involved with this - that would be my push point. What was the necessity to do this to benefit members. Perhaps it does -but what is it???

Disney's response -- "You see. We noticed that studios were getting booked first, and since we can increase them as much as we want, we figured we'd increase the points for them for all seasons and all days in order to hopefully slow down the overall demand. This should help all members."

 

[skier_pete]

One of the benefits is that more members will be able to book the smaller units, because a larger proportion of the resort's total points will now be going to book studios (so shorter stays for many of those who booked them before the change, thus freeing up nights for others to book. Having to buy more points is not relevant to this argument, because the additional point purchases still means more points going into the studio categories). FWIW, I do not think that studios will go unbooked for points, other than maybe a stray night here or there. Some members may not agree that this is a benefit, but if you look at the membership as a whole, it's hard to argue. Price goes up when demand for a limited item goes up.

Disney's response -- "You see. We noticed that studios were getting booked first, and since we can increase them as much as we want, we figured we'd increase the points for them for all seasons and all days in order to hopefully slow down the overall demand. This should help all members."

I actually don't have an issue with them increasing studio points structure - even to their benefit under the "lock-off premium". The fact they raised most of the 1-bedroom points rates, when 1-bedrooms are pretty consistently the last to book (including 2-beds) that to me says this wasn't done to benefit members.

And c'mon - the argument that "members can't book as many nights in the studios because they cost more" as beneficial to members? That's like saying "Gas prices going up make you drive less and therefore less wear and tear on your car, so it's actually beneficial!!"

 

[mustinjourney]

IMO, it is logical that the additional breakage that the lock-off premiums create will show up in the dedicated 2 bedroom categories (because they are still less expensive than the studios and 1 bedrooms).

I think this is just going to free up a lot of 1BRs for Disney to sell via cash. Take VGF, I have a 130 point contract that covered 1 week in a standard studio (125 points). I am now forced to either borrow points to go for a week (136 now I think) or go one less day.

I'm certainly not going to think -- hey, those 2BRs are now a better deal than before -- let me book one of those. Especially since a full week in the standard 2BRs got more expensive in EVERY SEASON except magic. Not to mention, a week in a standard 2BR in adventure season is 348 (used to be 340 in 2019). So someone like me (which I'd bet the vast majority of VGF owners do not own more than 150 points there), are going to have to make the decision to either use more points for the same stay or cut off a day or two to prevent having to borrow points.

I don't see how this will result in more 2BRs being booked by members.

I'm not a fan of the increases, especially for the 1 bedrooms, but I can see there is a benefit to the membership. While we can argue about the 1 bedroom demand, we do not have the actual demand data. We don't have any reliable data re what actually ends up going to breakage (other than it exceeds the budget cap).

The data is very easy to see. Studios get booked immediately...which effectively cancels out half of the 2BRs at VGF. 1BRs are almost always the last thing available to book.

 

[mustinjourney]

I actually don't have an issue with them increasing studio points structure - even to their benefit under the "lock-off premium". The fact they raised most of the 1-bedroom points rates, when 1-bedrooms are pretty consistently the last to book (including 2-beds) that to me says this wasn't done to benefit members.

And c'mon - the argument that "members can't book as many nights in the studios because they cost more" as beneficial to members? That's like saying "Gas prices going up make you drive less and therefore less wear and tear on your car, so it's actually beneficial!!"

it's beneficial to members with 1000+ points since they'll still have cushion to absorb the point increases.

 

[mustinjourney]

Holy cow though -- if you like staying at a Grand Villa at VGF -- it just got, on average, 8+% more expensive to book there.

 

[CarolMN]

........And c'mon - the argument that "members can't book as many nights in the studios because they cost more" as beneficial to members? That's like saying "Gas prices going up make you drive less and therefore less wear and tear on your car, so it's actually beneficial!!"

No,that's a bad analogy. If gas prices go up and the supply does not increase, more people can drive if the price increase results in others driving less. The person who has to drive less "loses" and the person who now can actually get gas "wins". Re-allocations always have individual winners and losers.

I am not defending the re-allocation. My personal stays will be shorter or cost more, but I can see the benefits if one considers the membership "as a whole".

My point is that if I want a studio but can never book one, but now I can get one because other members now can't stay so many nights, that's a benefit.

I think this is just going to free up a lot of 1BRs for Disney to sell via cash. Take VGF, I have a 130 point contract that covered 1 week in a standard studio (125 points). I am now forced to either borrow points to go for a week (136 now I think) or go one less day.

I'm certainly not going to think -- hey, those 2BRs are now a better deal than before -- let me book one of those. Especially since a full week in the standard 2BRs got more expensive in EVERY SEASON except magic. Not to mention, a week in a standard 2BR in adventure season is 348 (used to be 340 in 2019). So someone like me (which I'd bet the vast majority of VGF owners do not own more than 150 points there), are going to have to make the decision to either use more points for the same stay or cut off a day or two to prevent having to borrow points.

I don't see how this will result in more 2BRs being booked by members.

The data is very easy to see. Studios get booked immediately...which effectively cancels out half of the 2BRs at VGF. 1BRs are almost always the last thing available to book.

I did not say 2 bedrooms would get booked more often by members. (Maybe they will, maybe they won't). I said there will be probably be more dedicated 2 bedrooms going to BREAKAGE. IMO, many members will still book 1 bedrooms rather than spend more for a 2 bedroom as overall, they will still be less expensive.

You don't have data - just anecdotal evidence. Just because something books last, doesn't mean demand is so low that it ends up as breakage. It's also possible that increasing the cost of 1 bedrooms was a better choice than increasing the 2 bedrooms. (No one seems to be arguing that argue that studios shouldn't be increased). My point was that without the data, we can't know exactly what drove the reallocation decisions.

This thread is full of assumptions re motive. The assumptions may be correct. I do not know. But without actual data, I will not assume DVCMC did something that they can't reasonably support as being in the best interests of the Membership as a whole. YMMV.

 

[Dean]

The thing is, at VGF, every studio is part of a lock-off. And those studios book incredibly fast, as we all know. While there are some 1BR people that might move to 2BRs with the 1BR price increase and 2BR price decrease...I really don't see it making much of a difference, b/c the lock-offs will be removed from inventory the second a studio gets booked.

And what is not evident in my chart is that while the 2BR units did go down overall -- the standard view 2BRs actually increased for Adventure, Choice and premiere seasons...so it's not likely that many people are moving from studios/1BRs to 2BRs.

Nevermind, it's just not feasible for many to go from using 125 points (week in Std Studio in Adventure/choice) to 348/362 points for a 2BR std in those two seasons in 2020.

And vice versa, the studio and 1 BR will come out of inventory once a 2 BR is booked. It doesn't take that many people, only a few, it's really just a numbers game. It's not that one will jump from using 125 points to a 2 BR but some who were doing so (studio and 1 BR) and have the points will now do a 2 BR, esp if they should have anyway and were squeezing into the room. It may not be workable for some now and they'll have to adjust, that's the way the system is set up.

 

[Dean]

@Dean, you are definitely more optimistic than most of us. The popularity of studios is clearly much greater than 1-BD and 2-BD. Of course it depends a lot on resorts - but many have the majority of studios tied into lock-offs. I would have a hard time believing that at LEAST half of all lock-offs get booked as studios, and I would say it more likely to be more than 50%.

I also am not as optimistic that this is going to effectively drive many more people to book 2-BDs. For instance, how many people that currently book studios are going to upgrade to 2-beds? 1%? Maybe. 1-BDs it may be higher, but since many 1-BDs don't get booked until the studios are already gone, how will this drive people to 2-BDs. I think an increase in 10% of 2-BD bookings would be generous. In fact, the changes may drive some people who previously booked 1-BDs to instead book studios - which could make the problems worse.

You ARE right in saying it is a number less than what I presented - certainly I presented the higher end case. But without hard data (which they will never, ever release) you cannot convince me that DVC is going to break even on this move.

But that's just it, it's DVCMC's job to even out the demand. And given that the studio and 1 BR are a matched set, I suspect they've decide to try to push people to 2 BR instead of adjusting the demand of the studio just to the 1 BR by evening out the points. I suspect the difference will be less than 0.5% but it doesn't matter, it's the intent and contractual issues that control the discussion.

 

[JETSDAD]

I agree but lately just looking nothing is avail at 8am for studio on day it opens for values. I have been checking for 2 weeks!

It's early december booking, that's what I would expect.

Disney has had them blocked for a while....the value rooms have not been made available to members at all since a couple of days into December.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

@Dean, you are definitely more optimistic than most of us. The popularity of studios is clearly much greater than 1-BD and 2-BD. Of course it depends a lot on resorts - but many have the majority of studios tied into lock-offs. I would have a hard time believing that at LEAST half of all lock-offs get booked as studios, and I would say it more likely to be more than 50%.

I also am not as optimistic that this is going to effectively drive many more people to book 2-BDs. For instance, how many people that currently book studios are going to upgrade to 2-beds? 1%? Maybe. 1-BDs it may be higher, but since many 1-BDs don't get booked until the studios are already gone, how will this drive people to 2-BDs. I think an increase in 10% of 2-BD bookings would be generous. In fact, the changes may drive some people who previously booked 1-BDs to instead book studios - which could make the problems worse.

You ARE right in saying it is a number less than what I presented - certainly I presented the higher end case. But without hard data (which they will never, ever release) you cannot convince me that DVC is going to break even on this move.

I think 50% is still very much underestimating. In resorts that have dedicated 2BR's and only lock-off 2BR's for studios/1BR's I'd bet that it's at least 90% or could be even higher during busy times that the lock-offs end up split. BWV is the outlier in the scenario and I'd have a hard time hazarding a guess on what happens there.

 

[motherof5]

Disney has had them blocked for a while....the value rooms have not been made available to members at all since a couple of days into December.

It shows up to Dec 15 but is all grayed out and says to waitlist.

 

[mustinjourney]

My point is that if I want a studio but can never book one, but now I can get one because other members now can't stay so many nights, that's a benefit.

by that logic Disney should just go ahead and raise the point cost to 30 points for a studio and 45 for a 1BR. 2BR would be at it's current price of 46. Studios for anyone that wants them!

Obviously I'm being over the top here -- but Disney is not supposed to essentially raise prices of EVERYTHING. If they raise the price of the studios, it is supposed to be offset somewhere else. THEY DIDN'T DO THAT HERE.

And that is what I find very scary about all this. They can literally increase costs 10% every year on the points for the studios and 1BRs without any worry about what it does to the members, since the studios and 1BRs have ZERO effect on the point reallocation chart.

While there is a limit to what they can charge for the various rooms -- that limit is only specified so much as the maximum minimum point requirement. Essentially, the POS states that they have to provide at least one day at no higher than 18 points for a studio.

As such, they could make a "value" season that lasts a single day in order to comply with the POS requirements, and then go crazy however much they wanted to.


Bottom line, if studios are booking fast in the fall and not so fast in the summer, then they should have increased the costs of those studios in the seasons that warranted it. If studios are booking lightning fast all year long, then they should have raised their prices and lowered the 1BRs a little in order to push some people from studios to 1BRs. They are well aware that the market really only values 1BRs at about 50-70% more than a standard hotel room -- just look at cash prices on their own website.

 

[DougEMG]

I think we have two different camps here. In one camp we have the group that do not trust the reallocation without having some explanation from Disney and in the other camp we have the group that is willing to trust Disney without any evidence.

I used to belong to the trust Disney without evidence camp, but no longer do.

I get the requirement for the weekend/weekday change, that was creating holes in availability that were hard to fill which increased breakage.

What I could have easily accepted in this reallocation was an increase in studios matched with a decrease in 1 bedrooms and then an adjustment in seasons to increase points required in the Fall and Xmas, with a matching decrease at other times in the year. I'm pretty sure that the vast majority of members could of accepted a change like that.

What Disney did instead sure seems like it benefits them the most by generating lots of additional breakage.