ROFR Thread January to March 2019 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[carli_h]

Day 38

I think we’re the forgotten ones! I think everyone else has heard

 

[TexasChick123]

I think we’re the forgotten ones! I think everyone else has heard

Had your broker checked on the status of your contract to make sure they didn’t lose it?

 

[carli_h]

Had your broker checked on the status of your contract to make sure they didn’t lose it?

I called last Friday and they said we’d hear Monday or Tuesday. I called Tuesday and was told they’d emailed Disney about our contract along with a few others and that they were just backed up.

I’ll call tomorrow afternoon if I don’t hear anything in the meantime.

 

[TexasChick123]

I called last Friday and they said we’d hear Monday or Tuesday. I called Tuesday and was told they’d emailed Disney about our contract along with a few others and that they were just backed up.

I’ll call tomorrow afternoon if I don’t hear anything in the meantime.

Sounds like you’re on the ball about it. Sorry it’s taking so long to hear back.

 

[espov]

I'm sorry. I was afraid this was likely to happen. Also with how they hiked BLT direct that same week.

Yes, once I saw the updated prices- I knew my offer was too good to be passed up by them. However, i was banking on the fact that there are no points until 2020 as a sure thing... oh well--- they win again..lol

 

[TexasChick123]

Well, a lot of people say DVD doesn’t want to have all this inventory and pay MF’s on it. If the contracts are stripped until 2020 with the seller crediting MF’s through 2020, that may be atttractive to them. Maybe they’re trying to bulk up on some inventory while the prices are still lower compared to direct and save themselves from paying MF’s. Once the prices start to rise (if they do), then they won’t be buying back as many.

 

[Dracula]

Ha we are sending one for the same amount per point. Ours is 175 points and was listed at $129 so we offered $125 sending the deposit today.
Wishing you all the best perhaps they will get the message if we refuse to inflate the BLT price in resale.

Good luck to you! I feel the market value for BLT is somewhere around $120 per point, and we are in a disruption caused by increased ROFR activity. Once they reduce their intervention prices would go to more reasonable levels, like AUL or VBR.

 

[meekey7197]

Well, a lot of people say DVD doesn’t want to have all this inventory and pay MF’s on it. If the contracts are stripped until 2020 with the seller crediting MF’s through 2020, that may be atttractive to them. Maybe they’re trying to bulk up on some inventory while the prices are still lower compared to direct and save themselves from paying MF’s. Once the prices start to rise (if they do), then they won’t be buying back as many.

This is my husband’s theory. The stripped contracts and those with seller paying dues are probably more attractive at this point.

 

[Dracula]

Well, a lot of people say DVD doesn’t want to have all this inventory and pay MF’s on it. If the contracts are stripped until 2020 with the seller crediting MF’s through 2020, that may be atttractive to them. Maybe they’re trying to bulk up on some inventory while the prices are still lower compared to direct and save themselves from paying MF’s. Once the prices start to rise (if they do), then they won’t be buying back as many.

Cost of capital for DVD must be around 15% - I cannot imagine them spending money on points that cannot be sold this year.

 

[moxiemom]

Based on history in this thread.... I fully expect this one too be taken

Moxiemom---$150-$22580-140-VGF-Aug-0/17, 33/18, 140/19, 140/20- sent 2/21

 

[Bryan Burmeister]

Cost of capital for DVD must be around 15% - I cannot imagine them spending money on points that cannot be sold this year.

Not saying you are wrong, but that seems really high. What factors do you think would cause that? I would guess closer to 5% without any inside knowledge due to the fact they are like a financial company in a lot of ways. Especially in the context of ROFR purchases.

 

[moxiemom]

This is my husband’s theory. The stripped contracts and those with seller paying dues are probably more attractive at this point.

I don't think stripped vs full really matters to DVD. They only sell them with full points so Mickie must be magically filling up those stripped contracts.

 

[espov]

Well, a lot of people say DVD doesn’t want to have all this inventory and pay MF’s on it. If the contracts are stripped until 2020 with the seller crediting MF’s through 2020, that may be atttractive to them. Maybe they’re trying to bulk up on some inventory while the prices are still lower compared to direct and save themselves from paying MF’s. Once the prices start to rise (if they do), then they won’t be buying back as many.

So do you think a contract for bay lake tower with full points and buyer paying would have a better chance. Husband said go ahead make one more offer, don't know if i want to try VGF or Polynesian or give BLT one more chance. Any insight is appreciated. Broker said VGF and Polynesian seem to be getting waived at a much larger rate than BLT

 

[Lorilais_mommie]

LadylvsTramp---$133-$22988-160-BLT-Feb-0/18, 160/19, 160/20, 160/21-paying dues for 2019- sent 1/15 taken 2/20

Well my new motto go Low because they can’t take them all!

what's a motto?? nothing. What's a motto with you?" couldn't resist!

im so sorry you lost this one.. good motto to have though! hope you try again soon

Not to be a negative Nelly but it seems like they are going for stripped contracts more often than loaded. Which is a further data point that is completely confusing and makes for no pattern with these silly buy backs.

I notice this too. My BLT that got through was triple point loaded and figured after the price increase they would pick it up for sure! I never dreamed they would be going after stripped contracts.

Well, a lot of people say DVD doesn’t want to have all this inventory and pay MF’s on it. If the contracts are stripped until 2020 with the seller crediting MF’s through 2020, that may be attractive to them. Maybe they’re trying to bulk up on some inventory while the prices are still lower compared to direct and save themselves from paying MF’s. Once the prices start to rise (if they do), then they won’t be buying back as many.

This is very likely.. I think they were planning on selling ALOT of small add-ons once the 2020 point charts were released. It would also explain the increase in buy backs DVC resale market reported in dec 2018..
Once they rolled back the point charts, they may not want to be sitting on those points until they figure out what they are going to do with 2021 point charts. which I'm sure we will all be watch closely.

 

[JereMary]

Ha we are sending one for the same amount per point. Ours is 175 points and was listed at $129 so we offered $125 sending the deposit today.
Wishing you all the best perhaps they will get the message if we refuse to inflate the BLT price in resale.

There are a lot of BLT contracts available on resale sites. They can't take them all! Get the deal.

 

[Lorilais_mommie]

So do you think a contract for bay lake tower with full points and buyer paying would have a better chance. Husband said go ahead make one more offer, don't know if i want to try VGF or Polynesian or give BLT one more chance. Any insight is appreciated. Broker said VGF and Polynesian seem to be getting waived at a much larger rate than BLT

Tips I've learned form reading here while buying resale BLT:
- From what I've seen getting pick up.. most were striped.
- I would also stay away from Feb use year if you can. Seems to be on radar. (ours that passed was Aug if that helps)
- I've also seen advised here many times. Buyer pay the MF and closing. makes its less attractive to the ROFR monster.

I'm going to add one more tip.. its just a theory.. look for a weird number point contract. We have had our AKL 123 and BLT 309 both pass.. my DH think it might be harder for DVC to break those point up. but who really knows, I'm going with the drunken monkey theory I read a few pages back!

 

[CoensFamily2009]

What issue were you having? Just curious in case there's something that needs to be fixed

Oh noooo it was all me! lol I can't add properly apparently, but my husband can! lol

 

[DduzDis]

So do you think a contract for bay lake tower with full points and buyer paying would have a better chance. Husband said go ahead make one more offer, don't know if i want to try VGF or Polynesian or give BLT one more chance. Any insight is appreciated. Broker said VGF and Polynesian seem to be getting waived at a much larger rate than BLT

Just FWIW - I had a stripped $118 pp BWV taken and a loaded $125 BWV passed. I can't say if it was the price increase or the points they would have had to pay MF on. As far as which resort, I think you have to go with where you most want to stay. There is no guarantee any contract will pass. I would simply put together the best deal for yourselves and let the dice roll on ROFR...

 

[DduzDis]

, I'm going with the drunken monkey theory I read a few pages back!

I am convinced there is definitely a drunken monkey....

 

[Dracula]

Not saying you are wrong, but that seems really high. What factors do you think would cause that? I would guess closer to 5% without any inside knowledge due to the fact they are like a financial company in a lot of ways. Especially in the context of ROFR purchases.

See this link here - Disney's return on invested capital is close to 16%. https://www.gurufocus.com/term/ROIC/DIS/ROIC-/Walt-Disney-Co
This means that, when they look at what projects to invest in, they probably give priority to projects that return at least this average 16% - like a new Star Wars ride or a new Marvel movie. Purchasing points so they can sit on them for one year does not make much sense, unless somehow the points would increase in value by a significant amount. But most of the increase in the value of BLT points is driven by the ROFR purchases - the more they ROFR, the higher the price. If really sounds like a bubble.