Maintenance fee predictions

[Deb & Bill]

AKV has higher transportation costs since they have to bus to all parks. RIV skyliner should be cheaper transportation at costs at some point for Epcot and HS.

Don't forget about the upkeep of the animals and the savannas at AKV as well. Those are costs you don't have at the other resorts.

I did an estimate of OKW through 2041 and a 5% increase and got $21.13 in 2041 per point. But the last increase was about 7%, so 5% might not be enough. It hit double digits in 2026.

 

[katandmouse]

Your going to see 2 to 3% on average at a minimum due to inflation.

I haven't looked at all the resorts but I don't believe they've averaged long term much more than that. Maybe 3 to 4%?

I looked at BCV before we bought there and the average from 2002-2018 was 3.4% increase. Adding in the 7.8% increase last year, that makes the overall average about 3.65% increase. Before last year, 5.3% was the highest year-to-year increase, and that was the first 2 years the resort was open.

I don’t know about the other resorts, but you can check out DVCNews for a list of the historical annual dues at all of them.
https://www.dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-program/financial/annual-dues-by-resort
As to the future, I don’t know. Maybe another year or 2 of high increases before settling back down? I just know contractually they could go up 15% in a year.

Comparing resorts - my only guess is SSR will stay lowest because it has so many more points to spread costs out.

 

[karen4546]

New Direct owner. Closing date was today. Sure enough i logged on and there were my MFs on our account. Our UY is August. We did not have to pay for 2018 fees but i think they charged us for May-December. Just happy to have finally made the leap.

 

[CarolMN]

New Direct owner. Closing date was today. Sure enough i logged on and there were my MFs on our account. Our UY is August. We did not have to pay for 2018 fees but i think they charged us for May-December. Just happy to have finally made the leap.

. For any resort except DRR, a direct purchaser would pay 2019 calendar year dues prorated from the date the purchase agreement was signed.

Those who buy DRR in 2019 pay prorated from date resort opens (unless they sign after that, in which case they pay prorated from date of purchase).

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I don’t know about the other resorts, but you can check out DVCNews for a list of the historical annual dues at all of them.
https://www.dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-program/financial/annual-dues-by-resort

Or the resource center here:

https://www.disboards.com/threads/the-dvc-resource-center-updated-april-2019.3655476/#post-58628435

 

[mustinjourney]

One thing that wondered me during the last increase was that VGF didn't increase as much as the others monorail resorts - Its a smaller resort but I would expect it to increase about the same now that the wage increase came into effect. With that in mind I assume that VGF will either increase about the same for next year maybe a bit less as the wage increase are less OR the increase will catch up so the MF will be more similar to BLT and Poly.

Maybe CMs at VGF made more than other resorts given it is THE flagship resort?

 

[ScubaCat]

RIV dues also overestimate the property taxes a bit since they haven't finalized the first installment. (Preferable to most vs. an unexpected special assessment or massive increase the following year.) CCV did the same thing, then issued a credit thereafter.

 

[CanadaDisney05]

I did a very quick run-through of several of the resorts to calculate their average rates of increase since inception and it looks like they average around 4% annual increases over the long term

 

[crvetter]

I did a very quick run-through of several of the resorts to calculate their average rates of increase since inception and it looks like they average around 4% annual increases over the long term

Here is the plots that I have for the annualized YOY increase in dues for the resorts from Inception and during the period of 2017-2019. It mostly was to show that it is possible that DRR could have a small increase as this was evident in CCV as having happened (much lower increase compared to the other resorts).

https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...discussion-information.3750009/#post-60623368

 

[BillPA]

4% over the next 50 years is an increase of 711% hold on, a rough ride ahead. RV owners will be well over $56 a point by then.
EDITED to correct my error, Thanks CanadaDisney05

 

[CanadaDisney05]

4% over the next 50 years is an increase of 7,106% hold on, a rough ride ahead. RV owners will be well over $56 a point by then.

It's actually a 711% increase. But that doesn't really matter because a good 2 to 3% of that annual increase is due to inflation. Everything will cost more, including your salary (provided your still working).

 

[DebbieB]

Seems exaggerated. I bought BWV in 1999 @ $4.02 dues. Now $7.17. 20 years, not even double.

 

[CarolMN]

Seems exaggerated. I bought BWV in 1999 @ $4.02 dues. Now $7.17. 20 years, not even double.

And a good share of the increases were due to property taxes. I also remember a couple of years when the dues actually went down.

 

[Deb & Bill]

I bought OKW in 1997. Dues were $3.14. In 2019, they are $7.223. More than double. During that time there were two years when they didn't change and two when they went down. In 2006, they went up almost 10%. That was the year we sold our BCV points and one OKW contract.

 

[crvetter]

Seems exaggerated. I bought BWV in 1999 @ $4.02 dues. Now $7.17. 20 years, not even double.

Over its history BWV has only had an average annual increase of 3%. If you look at my post above (linked) you will see that BWV is on the lower end for its increases from inception.

 

[OKW Lover]

AKV has higher transportation costs since they have to bus to all parks. RIV skyliner should be cheaper transportation at costs at some point for Epcot and HS.

Transportation costs at SSR and OKW would also reflect that. Don't forget that even for the "monorail" resorts, there is also a transportation component for those going to the MK or Epcot as well as those going to DHS & AKL. They don't get a free ride.

Not an expert and this has been said to me on this board, so it might be wrong.
Buses (and the gondola) are not run from the condominium association. They do not buy the buses, hire the drivers or people at the stations. They have a contractor, the Walt Disney Company, they buy the service from them. So the Disney Company may charge whatever they want to the condominium association. Since the high transportation costs have been made explicit from the beginning, DRR owners won't ever be able to challenge the cost that the WDC charges for the gondolas, because when they bough it was already budgeted.

I don't believe that's true. Disney allocates transportation costs to all the various resorts based on occupancy/usage. They treat each resort as a cost center and each resort's manager is responsible for their budget, which includes transportation. Within the combination resorts (those with both regular rooms and DVC units, the transportation costs are further allocated according to capacity to the DVC segment.

 

[Wakey]

The rate of increase has accelerated this past few years, and anyone who saw the members meeting last year (a shockingly bad meeting on many levels not least they kept quiet about the points changes and mainly sang their own praises) will know they are already lining us up for a big one again.
Last rolling 5 years it has been a smidge under 5% pa at SSR, I suspect this year will push us well over, over a rolling 5 years.

Here is a compound list for dues increasing at 5% per year for 20 years at SSR (one of the lowest dues resorts):

2	$0.34	$0.66	$7.06
3	$0.35	$1.01	$7.41
4	$0.37	$1.38	$7.78
5	$0.39	$1.77	$8.17
6	$0.41	$2.18	$8.58
7	$0.43	$2.61	$9.01
8	$0.45	$3.06	$9.46
9	$0.47	$3.53	$9.93
10	$0.50	$4.02	$10.42
11	$0.52	$4.55	$10.95
12	$0.55	$5.09	$11.49
13	$0.57	$5.67	$12.07
14	$0.60	$6.27	$12.67
15	$0.63	$6.91	$13.31
16	$0.67	$7.57	$13.97
17	$0.70	$8.27	$14.67
18	$0.73	$9.00	$15.40
19	$0.77	$9.77	$16.17
20	$0.81	$10.58	$16.98
21	$0.85	$11.43	$17.83
22	$0.89	$12.32	$18.72
23	$0.94	$13.26	$19.66
24	$0.98	$14.24	$20.64
25	$1.03	$15.27	$21.67

This is it for Riviera:

1	$0.42	$0.42	$8.73
2	$0.44	$0.85	$9.16
3	$0.46	$1.31	$9.62
4	$0.48	$1.79	$10.10
5	$0.51	$2.30	$10.61
6	$0.53	$2.83	$11.14
7	$0.56	$3.38	$11.69
8	$0.58	$3.97	$12.28
9	$0.61	$4.58	$12.89
10	$0.64	$5.23	$13.54
11	$0.68	$5.90	$14.21
12	$0.71	$6.61	$14.92
13	$0.75	$7.36	$15.67
14	$0.78	$8.14	$16.45
15	$0.82	$8.97	$17.28
16	$0.86	$9.83	$18.14
17	$0.91	$10.74	$19.05
18	$0.95	$11.69	$20.00
19	$1.00	$12.69	$21.00
20	$1.05	$13.74	$22.05
21	$1.10	$14.84	$23.15
22	$1.16	$16.00	$24.31
23	$1.22	$17.21	$25.52
24	$1.28	$18.49	$26.80
25	$1.34	$19.83	$28.14

in 50 years it’s almost $100.

People may say it won’t increase at 5% pa, but all you need are some more 7- 10%s creeping in now and again and you have a big problem.

 

[CanadaDisney05]

The rate of increase has accelerated this past few years

Last rolling 5 years it has been a smidge under 5% pa at SSR, I suspect this year will push us well over, over a rolling 5 years.

People may say it won’t increase at 5% pa, but all you need are some more 7- 10%s creeping in now and again and you have a big problem.

This is how averages work. Some years the increases will be well above the average, some years they will be well below. The increase may never be the actual average ever.

in 50 years it’s almost$100

You can't think of it in nominal dollars like that. There will be inflation in the world around DVC as well. Everything will have gone up by 2 to 3% annually as well. That includes your earning.

 

[Madame]

You can't think of it in nominal dollars like that. There will be inflation in the world around DVC as well. Everything will have gone up by 2 to 3% annually as well. That includes your earning.

I think given recent history (the last 30 yrs) that it would be erroneous to count on earnings keeping pace with inflation.

 

[crvetter]

I think given recent history (the last 30 yrs) that it would be erroneous to count on earnings keeping pace with inflation.

Well actually earnings increases pretty much are correlated with inflation, sort of required for a well functioning economy. Inflation is a measure of a basket of common household goods a US citizen would purchase, thus if inflation outpaces wage growth people stop being able to live and quality of life plummets and eventually would disappear. Also inflation here being discussed is US inflation thus should correlate that to US wage growth. Historically since 1951 Wage growth has outpaced inflation



Looking at the annual growths you see very few times inflation outpaced wage growth. Any time inflation outpaces wage growth for extended periods of time there will be large macroeconomic issues and if it continues consistently you have situations like Venezuela.



Here is looking at a comparison from 2007 (peak market before crash) until 2017. You see them pretty much in lock step. So overall the past 10 years has shown we can expect wage growth (median is used here which is a better measure for middle class) and inflation to be similar.



Looking at 1990 forward (last 30 years or so) we see wage growth still outpacing.



Median Wage (From Social Security Admin)
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/AWI.html
CPI (Measure of Inflation for US)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL