Again, now getting to the hypothetical - We still could be talking about the resort not being open yet....but that is a STEEP drop when the economy hasn't really softened. The fact that older resort sales are up while Riviera sales are down says a LOT about what people think of the resale restrictions.
Man, I hope they reverse the resale restrictions, but I just don’t see them doing it. They frequently defy logic because they refuse to admit they did something wrong. No matter how many members or potential members tell them the restriction is hurting sales, they adamantly refuse to believe it. Even if sales aren’t in the dumps, I definitely think they’d be higher without that restriction.
Riviera has a very high point chart, high MFs, and high price per point. Those are more than enough to make the average potential buyers, who are looking to make Disney vacations affordable, run for the hills. While I think we all would like to see Disney conclude that resale restrictions are driving a drop in sales, I think that's a bit of a stretch as the average consumer sadly does not have that forethought.
Agreed. Who typically purchases a resort prior to it even opening? Current DVC owners who are looking to add on and guests who are visiting the parks at the time of purchase. With park attendance being down over the last two quarters, it’s not surprising that purchases by the latter group would be down. And then there’s the subset of current DVC owners (like myself) who are so skeptical of the resale restrictions that they are disinclined to purchase no matter how impressive the resort might be.I agree - but could 20% of consumers be turned off by resale restrictions? I think that's possible. As I said, pure speculation for right now. High MF and High Point charts didn't deter VGF or Poly. (yes, more known location.) As I said, need to wait until resort opens to make any conclusions. Probably at least 9 months away from really knowing if they have a problem.
I certainly would have added 75 direct at Riviera prior to the blue card minimum point increase if the restrictions weren't in place. I would even entertain doing that at 100 points now.
It might honestly have made me consider just doing Riviera direct and bypassing resale entirely. Instead I purchased 2 small resale contracts. *shrug*
While I think we all would like to see Disney conclude that resale restrictions are driving a drop in sales, I think that's a bit of a stretch as the average consumer sadly does not have that forethought.
But both X and Y are people who know how the resale market works. I have read a lot of messages by people who said they would have bought Riviera but they haven't because of the resale restrictions. I haven't read that many by people who wanted to buy resale but switched to direct because of it. I think Y > X
I agree with your post. Just thought I'd give my data point. We just bought 75 points direct, and 125 resale. While getting in before the blue card minimum went up to 100 was nice, the real reason we bought 75 direct was so that we could use banking and borrowing to stay at a "new" resort once every 3 years. Had the recent resale restrictions not been in place, we likely would have forgone the "blue card perks", and bought the whole thing resale.But both X and Y are people who know how the resale market works. I have read a lot of messages by people who said they would have bought Riviera but they haven't because of the resale restrictions. I haven't read that many by people who wanted to buy resale but switched to direct because of it. I think Y > X
Added the numbers for September.
Again - trying to avoid hyperbole with this thread. September is historically a slower month, but the trend of Riviera direct sales are not good for Disney, nor terrible. CCV direct sales are dropping while RIV are also dropping.
Article mentions sales down 5% year over year, but also looking at the two:
Sept 2019: RIV sales, 93,000 Total sales: 150,000
Sept 2018: CCV sales, 129,000 Total sales: 157,000
So that means a year ago, CCV was 82% of direct sales.
This year - RIviera is only 62% of direct sales.
(Aulani not included in either number.)
That says that while sales are down 5%, current resort sales are down TWENTY EIGHT PERCENT.
Current pace indicates 5-6 years to sell out the resort. Poly with a similar number of points sold out in just under 3 years.
Again, now getting to the hypothetical - We still could be talking about the resort not being open yet....but that is a STEEP drop when the economy hasn't really softened. The fact that older resort sales are up while Riviera sales are down says a LOT about what people think of the resale restrictions.
I've said it many times - if this trend doesn't turn around once the resort opens - I really do think Disney will revisit the resale restriction.
This is all the extensions that were sold back in 2010 or whenever the heck they did the OKW extensions. Yes, Disney never bothered to file them. Oops.
I agree with your post. Just thought I'd give my data point. We just bought 75 points direct, and 125 resale. While getting in before the blue card minimum went up to 100 was nice, the real reason we bought 75 direct was so that we could use banking and borrowing to stay at a "new" resort once every 3 years. Had the recent resale restrictions not been in place, we likely would have forgone the "blue card perks", and bought the whole thing resale.
I think it’s a perfect storm mostly of Disney’s own making. You have new restrictions, on an unknown resort, serviced by an unknown mass transit system, sold 9 long months ahead of opening, providing ample time for angered ownership to establish a narrative on the resorts.
Had sales started in November, and prior to this, the Skyliner had time to established itself as a solid means of transportation (which I foresee it will be) for a few months, and the finished resort could be showcased (model rooms don’t cut the mustard for enough buyers); the restrictions notwithstanding, I could imagine Riviera selling pretty well.
Instead, Disney has given all owners a lot to think twice about. And they kindly provided a huge amount of time to do it over and over again.
The resale restriction is there to sweeten the pot as a perk for buying direct. People think how it will affect them now, when using the thing they are spending all their money on, not how it will affect them if they want to get rid of their points. Most people that buy direct, buy when they are at a Disney property, not after they go home with a level head. That's something a guide even admitted to me when I spoke with them.However, if people are not really that knowledgeable, then why put the resale restrictions in the first place?
I certainly would have added 75 direct at Riviera prior to the blue card minimum point increase if the restrictions weren't in place. I would even entertain doing that at 100 points now.
It might honestly have made me consider just doing Riviera direct and bypassing resale entirely. Instead I purchased 2 small resale contracts. *shrug*
We were the same. CBR is our favourite mod - we love the area. If not for the restrictions we would likely have bought Riv. Instead, we wound up with a Poly resale that I am really excited about. Ironic how the resale restrictions drove us to resale !