confused on the draw to DVC

First I don't need to divide the cost of my contracts over more years, I know I have already recouped the money I paid for my points and the cost of dues. I don't have any issue with that, at this point it is all gravy. Maybe people who have to analyze the cost so intensely shouldn't buy DVC, maybe they can't really afford it.

When looking at the overall world population I would say there are far fewer 100-110, 90-99 and 80-89 year old's when compared to the rest of the population. I don't have actual numbers but I think it would be a pretty good guess so your comment about there being fewer in that age group wondering around Disney would probably be accurate. Not sure what that really has to with anything other than the possibility that you think a person in their 70's is too old to enjoy Disney?

That being said, in your original comments from above you implied that a person in their 70's most likely wouldn't want to wonder around Disney due to the heat and all the walking. This is where I take exception to your comments and I do find them a bit controversial. Just because a person is in their 70's doesn't mean that they still can't enjoy Disney. Just because you feel that you might not have the stamina doesn't mean that others don't. I know and have seen older guests at Disney seeming to have a very good time "wondering around Disney". My husband fits into this category and he is having fun "wondering around Disney". We work hard to stay physically fit so we can do the things we enjoy and for this reason I do take offense to being written off as being too old to still do Disney.

We usually travel in Jan/Feb to avoid the extreme heat, I'm not overly found of excessive heat so that is a no brainer for me. We do visit all the parks at least once during our trip with Epcot being the exception, we visit that park multiple time during our trips. All the walking allows for us to enjoy the treats that we wouldn't normally have without gaining any weight. Walking is very good exercise for people of all ages. With proper planning I think we will be able to enjoy WDW for many years to come.

One possible issue I can see may be the long drive to WDW but maybe at some point they will perfect the self-driving cars so that will no longer be an issue. One can always hope.
No offence but you have to be looking to take exception to something if you are offended by this. Are you offended when your insurance agency quotes you more than they quote your child? I am not offended when they quote me a higher insurance rate than a female of the same age; it is pure numbers.

Your conclusion of what I am saying is so backwards. If I am 35 and every grandparent I have had died before the age of 75, and when I go to Disney, as you said yourself, there is a declining number from 70 to 80 to 90 as there is in the population at large, what difference does it make to you that I am assuming I might be dead or sick when I have 15 years left on my contract? No one wants to be wrong more than me about that lol trust me. But still I am just being realistic and I am actually happy for people who go and enjoy themselves, I am just not assuming I will be so lucky when it comes to spending money today.

Saying you if you analyze dvc financially you can't afford it is a misguided conclusion. You are totally missing the point; those people are still spending the money on the exact same thing. That is like saying I go to buy a Mercedes at one dealership and they sell it for $50k and I go to another dealership and they want $55k for the same car and I buy the one worth $55k and when you paid $50k I say "oh you couldn't afford it from my dealership eh?". It is the same car...that's the point.
 
Last edited:
DVC, like ANY timeshare, makes sense if you're committed to vacationing with that primary company and not use outside stays -- even exchanges that eat into the break even point.

Most are setup at 50% mark of the commitment. If you do better, then you're ahead. If resale is significantly different from the current direct market, you can get a feel of the churn and mistakes on both sides of the ownership agreement on those properties.

I had my parents dump their RCI Hawaii timeshare 20 years ago because they rarely stayed on the same property and exchanged constantly -- never was going to reach any possible break even point. So they bailed.

We've kicked DVC around for many years and now comfortable enough to have it on our books for a long term commit. Like house ownership, if you're not up to the fees and commitment, don't go into it.
 
I did do this. Again without taking the thread down a path that only 4 people care about, if you want to see my calcs shoot me a pm (I am not going to assume you want to see them).

I basically set up outflows for direct buy as up front cost then dues at 4% increase after year 2, then difference between the two invested at the same 5% return. I also factored in the incentive at the time which I think was 245 points for the cost of 230.and increases of renting points starting at $17pp going up 3% per year; this last one I am not sure about I did look back but didn't notice a 1:1 correlation between dues increases and point rental increases but I have no hard data. This is the real flaw in the model because I have no idea what will happen to rental prices or if they will even be around in 20 years; with the decisions being made recently I wouldn't be surprised if that was the next target for Disney to get rid of.

Anyway my finding was that, after year 20, solving for equivalent IRR, you need your riv contract to be worth $82.29/point to be in the exact same position. With AKV for example, assuming $0 terminal value, you are still better off vs renting points.

Rental rates were around $10/point in 2011-2012 and have slowly started moving up to now you can get $16-$18 fairly easily depending on the resort. They definitely have not moved in lock step with MF though and I definitely see this as being something that is hard to predict.

It seems that renters expect about a 50% discount on cash rates to make the risk of renting worth the effort. So that would be the upper range. Lack of demand or an over supply of renters, such as would happen in a recession can easily cause the rates to stagnate or even drop.

When I play around with numbers I actually look at rental rates falling as one potential outcome.
 
Quick question about stripped contracts and borrowing and UY's - no matter what article that explains booking during UY and borrowing, etc, I think I don't exactly get it just yet. I hope you can clarify for me and thanks in advance!

We are looking to pay cash for this contract, which has a UY of June, with the aim of banking (looks to be a Jan deadline) and going on vaca every other year during the summer. This will be our first contract.

Since this is stripped, can we go on vaca in Dec 2020 and borrow points from 2021? It seems like we can, but we would have to book almost immediately once this contract closes (approx ~Jan 2020) which should give us about 11 months to book a studio for Dec 2020.

Also, we will want to vaca the end of June through the end of Aug for the years ahead due to school. With a use year of June, then as far as banking deadlines and cancellations, this would be ideal UY, correct?

Thanks so much!

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/listings/old-key-west/ok21051/
 
Last edited:


Quick question about stripped contracts and borrowing and UY's - no matter what article that explains booking during UY and borrowing, etc, I think I don't exactly get it just yet. I hope you can clarify for me and thanks in advance!

We are looking to pay cash for this contract, which has a UY of June, with the aim of banking and going on vaca every other year during the summer. This will be our first contract.

Since this is stripped, can we go on vaca in Dec 2020 and borrow points from 2021? It seems like we can, but we would have to book almost immediately once this contract closes (approx ~Jan 2020) which should give us about 11 months to book a studio for Dec 2020.

Also, we will want to vaca the end of June through the end of Aug for the years ahead due to school. With a use year of June, then as far as banking deadlines and cancellations, this would be ideal UY, correct?

Thanks so much!

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/listings/old-key-west/ok21051/

A Dec 2020 trip falls in your 2020 UY. So you can borrow points from 2021 to book this trip. Based on the link, you’d have up to 52 to use.

For summer travel, June UY is a great one. You can always book 11 months in advance. if you want use banked points, then you’d have to bank before you book.

For example, you want to go in August of 2023. Since that is in your 2023 UY, you could used banked 2022 UY points. Since the 11 month window for this reservation opens in Sept 2022, you’d want to bank those right away, so you can use them vs, waiting till the official banking window which would be Jan, 2023
 
Thank you, Sandi!!!

So excited and happy to have given OKW a second look as our entry into DVC! I will figure out the stairs issue, there are always pros and cons to everything. ;) Looking forward to purchasing BCV as well, but we want to wait on that for now. This will be a great start. :)
 
Sounds like double talk to me. You certainly aren't making yourself clear, not sure what your point really is.

I think we need to agree to disagree.

Also, you used the word stupid not me. I think smart would be someone who does their research, crunches their numbers and sees that they can afford DVC and does would be smart or if they see they can not and they don't that also would be smart. On the other hand stupid would be someone who does the homework, crunches all the numbers and decides they can't afford DVC but does it anyway. That would be a bad decision or a stupid decision, you can choose the word you want.
Never mind. Not sure who died and made me thought police.

Before I resign my self appointed position and surrender the Master of Mindfulness badge (keeping my reflective vest and whistle), I do want to assure you that at no point was I ever calling anyone “stupid.”

I’m done trying to be clever for the day and will stick with my quixotic railings against the ills of our great corporate overlords, which is so much more healthy a pastime. :sad2:
 


Maybe people who don't analyze the cost so intensely shouldn't buy DVC, maybe they can't really afford it.

In my experience, people with money (lots of it) analyze just about everything $$$-wise.
I agree with this. This is a generalization and in no way is meant to lump everyone into this group, but those who don't analyze the numbers are the same people who are more likely to be duped by the car salesman's (or DVC reps for that matter) monthly payment pitch.

"$30,000! I can't afford that". "don't worry, I can bring the price down for you. I can get it down to only $360/month" "Wow, that's much more affordable..."

FWIW, $360/month is 30K paid off over 10 years with an 8% interest rate.

"$360/month too high? I just went back to my manager and was able to get it down to $340 month"

"wow! what a deal!" .... 30K paid off over 11 years at an 8% interest rate.

There are three components of the financial analysis when it comes to DVC.

1) Can you afford it? Will it have a monetary negative impact on your life?
2) Does it make sense financially? Even if I can afford it, what else can I do with this money? Travel elsewhere? Invest it? Invest the upfront capital and use the proceeds to cover my Disney trips? Am I getting enough monetary value out of DVC to outweigh the other potential uses of the same capital?
3) How do I finance it? Disney or other timeshare loans? Credit card? Cash? Or take the cash and invest it, while taking out a HELOC or adding the funds on to my mortgage in order to qualify for a low interest loan?
 
The more money we have, the more we crunch and covet. There's a reason why we both drive 14+-year-old cars that are very well maintained/paid off, our house is nearly paid off and we are paying cash for the contract. Resale still scares me at this juncture with us coming into it, it is not the best time to do it (PP for OKW is projected as ~$15 and ~$13 starting in 2021 for our contract and that's high as compared to others), but at the end of the day, it's about making memories for our adopted son, who is at risk for so many adult type of issues - a consistent vacation and creating our own family traditions will help us provide a solid foundation to stabilize him. I'm hoping that we are grandfathered in and prevent any new rules that are implemented in the years to come (It sounds like that is what happens consistently in the past). We counter the risk of this by buying our contract that expires in 21 years, but obviously it hurts our PP. Risk/reward. Anyone who has taken a basic statistics class knows that the house always wins.
 
Last edited:
Maybe people who don't analyze the cost so intensely shouldn't buy DVC, maybe they can't really afford it.

In my experience, people with money (lots of it) analyze just about everything $$$-wise.
I don't think you can say either way, people can or can't afford it by their reason for buying, or their analysis of the price or lack of it.
I don't have lots of money, I analyze the cost of every major purchase because I don't have lots of money and as a single mom (kids grown up now) am averse to debt. I was travelling yearly to Disney with my kids, when I took the friendship boat from studios to Epcot (I was a Disney dummy, had no idea that boat was available) and fell in love with BW at first sight. When I got home I purchased a 60 point resale, worked out where every penny was coming from, then added on in increments. I figured if I could afford to go every year, I could afford DVC to stay in a great resort. I don't analyze the way some people here do, PV/FV inflation etc. But with a little research about deluxe prices, I was able to see the value in DVC.

This was back in 2007, so prices weren't what they are now. I don't know if I'd be making that leap today.

That's not to say people shouldn't finance, you have to know your own situation. Not financing today could cost you lots of money later with the way the prices are increasing.
 
I have to agree with Bing here. Number crunching to some degree is both being cautious but also a reflection of what you value and a personality type. One can afford to buy the contract and even pay the entire life of the contract outright but yet don't see the value in it when crunching numbers. In part it depends on inflation rates, length of contract, and what you are putting a dollar value on that determines if you see a 'worth' to purchasing a contract. While you were implying that if you have to or enjoy crunching the numbers to see the value then you can't afford it. The inclusion of "maybe" doesn't really change that statement. Regardless, I'm sure you weren't intending to sound insulting to those that like to number crunch (so I'm going to let it go in the wise words of Elsa, haha!).

Personally, I have been crunching numbers for about half a year and emotionally I really want to own DVC but I'm having a tough time with the value proposition part and am fairly risk adverse. It has nothing to do at all with what I can afford. Matter of fact I would love someone to show me how they make the numbers work and that is why I keep watching these threads and number crunching. LOL.

Thank you for your post, I never interned to insult anyone I was only saying that some people do over analyze things. One reason could be because they can't afford something and they are trying any way possible to make it work.

When I made my purchases I did my fair share of number crunching. That is something I do about many things in our financial life and agree that it's a good thing to do, I guess it's the banker in me. No insult was intended.

I think you are wise to be doing your research and determining it is something you can afford, the question now becomes is it something that you really want? Does it make good financial sense for you? Only you can answer these question. I hope you are able to come to a conclusion that you will be happy with. :wizard:
 
That's not to say people shouldn't finance, you have to know your own situation. Not financing today could cost you lots of money later with the way the prices are increasing.

Great post. So true about financing. I know the usual wisdom is to not finance, but at the same time the number one thing I see people say is they wish they bought sooner. So in my mind, if you have to finance say for a year or so while you aggressively pay it off it's worth it to get in sooner because prices really do keep rising, and restrictions keep changing.

I figured if I could afford to go every year, I could afford DVC to stay in a great resort. I don't analyze the way some people here do, PV/FV inflation etc. But with a little research about deluxe prices, I was able to see the value in DVC.

Basically my rough analysis also. My "wake up" moment was after staying at WL in 2017, for the money that vacation cost me I could have been 50% into the cost of a DVC contract.
 
Thank you for your post, I never interned to insult anyone I was only saying that some people do over analyze things. One reason could be because they can't afford something and they are trying any way possible to make it work.

When I made my purchases I did my fair share of number crunching. That is something I do about many things in our financial life and agree that it's a good thing to do, I guess it's the banker in me. No insult was intended.

I think you are wise to be doing your research and determining it is something you can afford, the question now becomes is it something that you really want? Does it make good financial sense for you? Only you can answer these question. I hope you are able to come to a conclusion that you will be happy with. :wizard:

I get it and I wasn't insulted and hope if others take a step back they realize that wasn't your intent. On the other hand, you are right some people do over analyze or try and "make it work". I know I over analyze things but its what it takes to make me comfortable with my decision (i.e. note the not a risk taker comment :D). Thank you and I too hope that whatever decision I make it works for us. :)
 
No offence but you have to be looking to take exception to something if you are offended by this. Are you offended when your insurance agency quotes you more than they quote your child? I am not offended when they quote me a higher insurance rate than a female of the same age; it is pure numbers.

Your conclusion of what I am saying is so backwards. If I am 35 and every grandparent I have had died before the age of 75, and when I go to Disney, as you said yourself, there is a declining number from 70 to 80 to 90 as there is in the population at large, what difference does it make to you that I am assuming I might be dead or sick when I have 15 years left on my contract? No one wants to be wrong more than me about that lol trust me. But still I am just being realistic and I am actually happy for people who go and enjoy themselves, I am just not assuming I will be so lucky when it comes to spending money today.

Saying you if you analyze dvc financially you can't afford it is a misguided conclusion. You are totally missing the point; those people are still spending the money on the exact same thing. That is like saying I go to buy a Mercedes at one dealership and they sell it for $50k and I go to another dealership and they want $55k for the same car and I buy the one worth $55k and when you paid $50k I say "oh you couldn't afford it from my dealership eh?". It is the same car...that's the point.

I'm not looking to argue with you but I disagree with your comment about taking exception. If this is what you think that is fine with me, moving on... :thumbsup2

I'm sorry that so many in your family have passed away at relatively young ages. My father passed at 78 my mother was 88 and my DHs parents were 86 and 88. I tend to take after my mother so I'm hoping I get to live as long or longer then she did. I hope you get to outlive your family members, with all the medical advances we are making it is very likely that you will. Now you just have to keep yourself healthy so you can continue to enjoy WDW in your "old" age if you are so inclined.

My comment about not affording DVC at this point in my life is being based on current rack rates and my age. I don't think I would be able to get another 50 years out of my DVC. I'm not that naive. ;) I'm assuming that is what you are talking about in your last paragraph, if not I'm sorry for not completely understanding your meaning.

Your comments prompted me to do a quick search on the US population based on age and it might interest you to know that we are actually experiencing an aging population, meaning there's going to more of us "old" guys then you "young" guys. ;) The information is from a web site that I hope I can name here; www.marketingcharts.com/demographics-and-audiences-49490


Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Notes: The first population projections released by the US Census Bureau in 14 years show an aging population distribution in the US: by 2060, slightly fewer than 1 in 5 (19.8%) of Americans will be younger than 18, down from an estimated 22.9% next year. By contrast, by the end of the forecast period, the 65+ crowd will account for 23.6% of the population, up from 14.9% next year. Indeed, the 65+ bracket will grow to outnumber under-18s some time between 2030 and 2035. Something to think about, given the complaints that advertisers aren’t doing a good job catering to older Americans.


This may be something that you want to keep in mind when purchasing DVC. Just about the time you are getting ready to sell there may not be as many buyers. More supply then demand.

I also think that Disney may be getting near the point of oversaturation when it comes to lodging. Something else to keep in mind. What do they say?
"C aveat emptor or let the buyer beware."

I hope you enjoy your DVC journey. pixiedust:
 
This is where I take exception to your comments and I do find them a bit controversial. Just because a person likes crunching numbers doesn't mean that they still can't afford Disney. Just because you feel that you might not have the interest doesn't mean that others can’t.
Exactly. People do not accumulate wealth by throwing money around without first taking a good look at where it’s going.
 
Guys! Starting to get cold feet! I have a week to back out! Should I have bought OKW direct for 50 points instead, in case we get addonitis? At least if we added on it would have given us a benefit like annual passes, which matters more when you're going every year? ARGH!!!!!! I'd have to buy 100 direct on top of the 50 we are buying now, and I don't think that will happen. :(

For what it's worth, I didn't know that you could still buy 50 pts directly. I misunderstood the 2019 minimum restriction and after seeing a new thread today asking about splitting up the direct purchases into smaller ones until you get to 100, got me thinking!!!!!!

Help! :(
 
Guys! Starting to get cold feet! I have a week to back out! Should I have bought OKW direct for 50 points instead, in case we get addonitis? At least if we added on it would have given us a benefit like annual passes, which matters more when you're going every year? ARGH!!!!!! I'd have to buy 100 direct on top of the 50 we are buying now, and I don't think that will happen. :(

For what it's worth, I didn't know that you could still buy 50 pts directly. I misunderstood the 2019 minimum restriction and after seeing a new thread today asking about splitting up the direct purchases into smaller ones until you get to 100, got me thinking!!!!!!

Help! :(
what did you purchase?
 

GET A DISNEY VACATION QUOTE

Dreams Unlimited Travel is committed to providing you with the very best vacation planning experience possible. Our Vacation Planners are experts and will share their honest advice to help you have a magical vacation.

Let us help you with your next Disney Vacation!













facebook twitter
Top