Riviera resale restrictions lifting: possible

[ziravan]

I highly doubt DVC will ever lift the resale restrictions, but I do agree that the language they have put in place will allow them to "fix" the booking problems in the future for direct buyers and resale buyers by shortening the resale buyers booking windows. This will give them another selling point to tell people the advantages of buying direct. Most people are not aware of the resale market unless you are here on disboards. I wouldn't be surprised if the resale restrictions went to a 7 month booking window.

I haven’t read the RIV contract but the others require at least a 1 month home resort booking advantage, and I’d think that would be necessary regardless. And there’s really no difference between 8 and 10 so far as advantage. They’d probably split the difference at 9 months.

11 months direct
9 months resale
7 months non-home resort owners

If they wait until it’s a problem to implement it, I don’t see how they could grandfather the problem they’re trying to fix.

 

[RivShore]

Not today. Or tomorrow. Or at sellout. But as ownership shifts to a large percentage of resale owners. 10 years out?

So what is that percentage of resales that will cause booking issues for direct owners?

It's been pretty slow turnover over the 20+ year history of DVC, so that tipping point could be a long time off. Especially if the resale market is not as robust for RIV, potential sellers may just hold and rent rather than sell at low prices.

 

[zavandor]

So what is that percentage of resales that will cause booking issues for direct owners?

It's been pretty slow turnover over the 20+ year history of DVC, so that tipping point could be a long time off. Especially if the resale market is not as robust for RIV, potential sellers may just hold and rent rather than sell at low prices.

How many standard studios are there at Riviera? Random number: let's say 30.
If 30 resale buyers start walking a standard studio in August for early December, there will be serious issues for all the fall.
30 people is enough.

 

[RivShore]

How many standard studios are there at Riviera? Random number: let's say 30.
If 30 resale buyers start walking a standard studio in August for early December, there will be serious issues for all the fall.
30 people is enough.

Maybe, but that's assuming 100% of those 30 people know about walking and will do it diligently and succesfully for 4 months. I'd say that outside of the very small Disboards bubble, that percentage is pretty small.

 

[zavandor]

Resale purchasers by definition are more knowledgeable than the average owners. It doesn't even take 30 resale owners, if some of direct owners do the walk as well.
If I had bought a RIV contract, I would start walking in August for December. I wouldn't risk it.

 

[chicagodisneyguy]

Resale purchasers by definition are more knowledgeable than the average owners. It doesn't even take 30 resale owners, if some of direct owners do the walk as well.
If I had bought a RIV contract, I would start walking in August for December. I wouldn't risk it.

I agree. I think the points chart being on the higher end of the spectrum coupled with high buy in price is once again is going to lead to a lot of members going after studios. I also think a decent percentage of members will only have enough points for studios. Once the resale ranks swell and those contracts can only be used at DRR, more and more people are going to walk. It would not surprise me if a few years in DRR has the worst walking problem in the DVC system.

I'm 100% against walking. But at this point I don't think I'd buy a contract at DRR without being willing subscribe to the "if you can't beat 'em join 'em" mantra.

 

[Brianstl]

I think the restrictions will scare away buyers just looking to make money on rentals. The risk is too great if you get beat walking or you screw up walking. You don't have an SSR or OKW to use as a back up at seven months. Plus you are suck with high maintenance fees.

That will further impact the resale price of RIV as more contracts hit the market. People won't be able to justify a price based on rental income.

 

[DougEMG]

Maybe, but that's assuming 100% of those 30 people know about walking and will do it diligently and succesfully for 4 months. I'd say that outside of the very small Disboards bubble, that percentage is pretty small.

That is about the number of BWV standard view studios and they have been walked since early Sept....I still haven't got one after numerous attempts.

 

[DVC_HK]

Honestly I want DVC to set up a certain amount of changes you can do to a single reservation or something to that degree because this walking business is for the birds. As a owner I shouldn't have to plan a December trip at August and have to move it due to other doing the same. Make it fair across the board for everyone and let the race start at 8 AM eastern at 11 months

 

[Sandisw]

So what is that percentage of resales that will cause booking issues for direct owners?

It's been pretty slow turnover over the 20+ year history of DVC, so that tipping point could be a long time off. Especially if the resale market is not as robust for RIV, potential sellers may just hold and rent rather than sell at low prices.

I think this is something that could very well be true and something that Disney may be planning on. Maybe they knew that the restrictions would produce low resale value..which would force owners to not sell without a good size loss.. which would leave people only one real option if they want to own and that is direct.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I think this is something that could very well be true and something that Disney may be planning on. Maybe they knew that the restrictions would produce low resale value..which would force owners to not sell without a good size loss.. which would leave people only one real option if they want to own and that is direct.

Buying resale is the only way to protect against a good sized loss. Have the initial direct buyer take the hit. It has to be where you want to stay but it will save eating the loss if you have to sell.

 

[RivShore]

I think this is something that could very well be true and something that Disney may be planning on. Maybe they knew that the restrictions would produce low resale value..which would force owners to not sell without a good size loss.. which would leave people only one real option if they want to own and that is direct.

Yes, their evil plan may just work...

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

That's the issue for me with Riviera. DVC has written in the contract: we can do whatever we want to your contracts and you have no protection whatsoever.
That's worst than just the current restrictions. Even someone who just want to book Riviera should we weary of buying there resale, because DVC has the power to add other restrictions (booking at 10 months max anyone?). And given what they did with the 2020 original charts I do not trust them they won't do that in a way that will screw existing members.

Agree. There was little enough protection with the first 14 but it's there in a way that keeps some of the core of the product intact. The lock-off premium is the most underhanded action they attempted at those resorts. So with Riviera DVC just jumped completely down the rabbit hole stating that upon any whim they feel like they will help themselves with no restrictions or regard for the owners there.

 

[Brianstl]

I think this is something that could very well be true and something that Disney may be planning on. Maybe they knew that the restrictions would produce low resale value..which would force owners to not sell without a good size loss.. which would leave people only one real option if they want to own and that is direct.

People will still buy resale, but just at a greatly reduced price. It won't be as low as some other timeshares, but it will be much lower than people are used to.

 

[Sandisw]

Buying resale is the only way to protect against a good sized loss. Have the initial direct buyer take the hit. It has to be where you want to stay but it will save eating the loss if you have to sell.

My point was that since people who buy direct would have to sell at a loss, there won’t be as many resale contracts for others to buy. I think that is something that maybe Disney is counting on. With a rental market, an owner can rent points to cover MFs and some extra instead of selling at that loss. Unless some one is in a situation where they need something back of the initial purchase, they might be more apt to hang on to it.

 

[CanadaDisney05]

My point was that since people who buy direct would have to sell at a loss, there won’t be as many resale contracts for others to buy. I think that is something that maybe Disney is counting on. With a rental market, an owner can rent points to cover MFs and some extra instead of selling at that loss. Unless some one is in a situation where they need something back of the initial purchase, they might be more apt to hang on to it.

If the price is too low, that will increase demand because everyone loves a good deal..... When demand goes up, so does price, which will inevitably increase supply until we hit an equilibrium (which will likely be lower than it is today due the product being diminished.

 

[Sandisw]

People will still buy resale, but just at a greatly reduced price. It won't be as low as some other timeshares, but it will be much lower than people are used to.

They can only buy resale Rivera if people who bought it already sell. If direct buyers are going to take a bath on selling it, they could very well hold onto it longer and that might reduce the number of resale contracts you see for sale, Obviously, it will never be zero..but if there aren’t a lot of them and someone wants to buy there, they may decide to buy direct over buying somewhere else,

I am just saying that it could be something Disney has thought about.

 

[Sandisw]

If the price is too low, that will increase demand because everyone loves a good deal..... When demand goes up, so does price, which will inevitably increase supply until we hit an equilibrium (which will likely be lower than it is today due the product being diminished.

Certainly, but until that happens, owners could decide to hang on to the contracts, which could make the number of contracts on the resale market fewer in the first few years than other resorts.

 

[Matty B13]

My point was that since people who buy direct would have to sell at a loss, there won’t be as many resale contracts for others to buy. I think that is something that maybe Disney is counting on. With a rental market, an owner can rent points to cover MFs and some extra instead of selling at that loss. Unless some one is in a situation where they need something back of the initial purchase, they might be more apt to hang on to it.

Would Direct Owners who know very little about the resale market, even know about the rental market? I think most Direct Owners outside of Disboards and other forums have very little knowledge of the markets, and would be more likely to sell at a loss, than to have to deal with renting their points out. I don't think most people want to deal with the hassle.

 

[Bearval]

I haven’t read the RIV contract but the others require at least a 1 month home resort booking advantage, and I’d think that would be necessary regardless. And there’s really no difference between 8 and 10 so far as advantage. They’d probably split the difference at 9 months.

11 months direct
9 months resale
7 months non-home resort owners

If they wait until it’s a problem to implement it, I don’t see how they could grandfather the problem they’re trying

Yes, their evil plan may just work...

Agreed, But it also has language that allows them to change their minds, including letting people pay money to qualify the points.

So, if they find down the road, when it’s time to sell Reflections, that changing things up makes sales go better, they can do it.

I believe their idea of changing their minds is going to involve a hefty fee of like $60 or more a point to “fix” your resale RIV points.