What’s you prediction for return to normal travel?

[travelmomof3]

To answer to the original question

I think we will all be in some sort of lockdown/quarantine through late May/early June. Some states might lighten up as they may not have many cases and many states don't expect shortages/high death rates (I have a link to a website an ER doctor friend uses to project COVID-19 stats - several of the smaller population states do not project shortages/high death rates).

By then people will definitely be stir crazy, eager to visit family, eager to get back to camping, hiking, visiting National Parks. I do think social distancing will still be a thing, either by recommendations or just mentally, sort of a PTSD of sorts for a long while. I think these might be the first types of "travel" open due to the ability to implement distancing.

I think theme parks, concerts, Broadway shows, will either still not be open or in a very limited/controlled capacity. For example, maybe in a Broadway show every other row and every other seat will be filled, or families can sit together but those tickets must be purchased together?

I think if the economy is stimulated in a slow roll out of sorts - such as the above allowed - small business might be able to reopen, people will be eager to get out and spend $, and it will be a continuous cycle from there.

As for travel, maybe by late summer/early fall. As soon as it is able to be done, people will be eager to go. But prices will be high due to supply and demand.

Of course these are just my thoughts and I could be way off but...I'm trying to be optimistic here! Of course antibody tests and vaccines could greatly change the course of things.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I believe Broadway is closed all summer. A lot of regional theater is calling off summer seasons, because they cannot rehearse.

 

[Deploraboo]

September 2022.

 

[holden]

I believe Broadway is closed all summer. A lot of regional theater is calling off summer seasons, because they cannot rehearse.

We had tickets to a show on 5/2. I received an email stating Broadway is closed through 6/7 as of now. I’m sure they will extend that.

 

[brentm77]

September 2022.

Shoot me now...

 

[Madame B]

Shoot me now...

Me too...

 

[travelmomof3]

I believe Broadway is closed all summer. A lot of regional theater is calling off summer seasons, because they cannot rehearse.

Right now they're closed through June. We are scheduled to go with a group to NYC in July and have several nights of tickets. Broadway.com has informed us it's still a go as of right now. Do *I* think it will hapepn? No, I don't. I also don't expect that travel to NYC will be recommended even in July. That will be trip #3 we will have cancelled/had cancelled this year.

 

[Jason Martin]

We have an ABD Rhine River booked for July. With Final payment due in a couple of weeks, we plan on canceling and moving the deposit to a placeholder.
Hoping to still go to Hawaii in Mid August with a split island stay concluding at Aulani. Not confident that will go either
Otherwise we will plan to book a DCL cruise whenever and wherever once it’s deemed safe

 

[travelmomof3]

We have an ABD Rhine River booked for July. With Final payment due in a couple of weeks, we plan on canceling and moving the deposit to a placeholder.
Hoping to still go to Hawaii in Mid August with a split island stay concluding at Aulani. Not confident that will go either
Otherwise we will plan to book a DCL cruise whenever and wherever once it’s deemed safe

We are also supposed to be at Aulani this August. I'm really unsure as to whether or not we will go. Just taking it day by day and then we will see.

 

[smmco]

I think a month from now will have a much clearer picture of what Summer travel will entail. We've been on lockdown for less than a month and it seems like 6 months. A lot can change in a month. I think everyone needs to be patient and not make any rash decisions in either direction.

 

[G.Tyler]

I too; believe cruising will open up this fall (Maybe) ... if nothing else happens in regards to a 2nd or 3rd or delayed wave occurs. Also; it isn't just the embarkation in question; all the ports of call must be covid-19 clear. That could be a enormous challenge.

 

[JM_97]

By then people will definitely be stir crazy, eager to visit family, eager to get back to camping, hiking, visiting National Parks.

By then? I'm already there!!!

 

[hnthomps]

Right now they're closed through June. We are scheduled to go with a group to NYC in July and have several nights of tickets. Broadway.com has informed us it's still a go as of right now. Do *I* think it will hapepn? No, I don't. I also don't expect that travel to NYC will be recommended even in July. That will be trip #3 we will have cancelled/had cancelled this year.

I work in regional theater. The NYC theaters are planning (hoping) for Jan 1. Broadway may follow slightly different rules, but I doubt it. No one thinks before September is possible -- shows need 4-6 weeks to get back up (depending on what part of the process they were shut down in and how much advance work is needed. If the exact same cast can come back right away, then maybe only a week to put the actors back in, but that would be cutting it close with dance shows for safety reason). The actor's union also has some (reasonable!) health and safety concerns. Figuring out how to social distance on stage, in a lobby, and in bathrooms in a broadway house is really hard. Maybe they'll be back for Thanksgiving, which is usually a big week, but I doubt before then. And even then - if we're really expecting a second wave in the fall, who knows...

 

[mmouse37]

We are making our Disney themed masks as I really think many will be wearing them once cruising starts again. I can make a formal night one, a pirate one, ones to match our outfits, etc.!

MJ

 

[nycdisneygal]

We are making our Disney themed masks as I really think many will be wearing them once cruising starts again. I can make a formal night one, a pirate one, ones to match our outfits, etc.!

MJ

That sounds awesome!!!!!!!

 

[travelmomof3]

I work in regional theater. The NYC theaters are planning (hoping) for Jan 1. Broadway may follow slightly different rules, but I doubt it. No one thinks before September is possible -- shows need 4-6 weeks to get back up (depending on what part of the process they were shut down in and how much advance work is needed. If the exact same cast can come back right away, then maybe only a week to put the actors back in, but that would be cutting it close with dance shows for safety reason). The actor's union also has some (reasonable!) health and safety concerns. Figuring out how to social distance on stage, in a lobby, and in bathrooms in a broadway house is really hard. Maybe they'll be back for Thanksgiving, which is usually a big week, but I doubt before then. And even then - if we're really expecting a second wave in the fall, who knows...

Ugh, sorry . My daughter is big into musical theatre so this is near and dear to me. Stay healthy!

 

[elle21]

I think it will be in June. Another study came out on testing done in a homeless shelter in Boston I believe. Almost half of the people who tested positive had no symptoms. I think (hope) we will find soon that most people have had it already.

 

[mom4fun]

I think it will be in June. Another study came out on testing done in a homeless shelter in Boston I believe. Almost half of the people who tested positive had no symptoms. I think (hope) we will find soon that most people have had it already.

To add to your comment, I’ve been reading that in many of the nursing homes with outbreaks 50% of patients are asymptotic, testing positive for Covid. These are of course the most weak and elderly of society.

 

[dvcgirl67]

I think it will be in June. Another study came out on testing done in a homeless shelter in Boston I believe. Almost half of the people who tested positive had no symptoms. I think (hope) we will find soon that most people have had it already.

Unfortunately, as much as we all wish this was true, it isn't. Studies out of China and our CDC estimates that the number of of people positive with COVID-19 is 10 times higher than total known cases. We have roughly 707,000 known cases in the United States. So, we likely have a bit over 7 million people in our population that has been infected with the virus. Among *those* 7 million....are that 25-50% or so who are completely asymptomatic and/or silent spreaders of the virus. And yes, if you go to places like hospitals and nursing homes you're going to find many more asymptomatic positive folks than in random places where the virus isn't as prevalent.

So that's only about 2% of the population if 7 million people have had the virus in some form. That's why it's so vital to we proceed *very* carefully as we come back together as a society. Or we'll absolutely have another round of fun that we're going through right now.

Shanghai Disney theme park is still closed. They shut the park down on January 25th, and while they did start a "phased opening" of the resort in March with the hotels and some shopping areas partially open, the park is still closed, 3 months later. And again, it's with temperature checks, face masks, social distancing...etc. None of that sounds remotely fun.

The hope that heat/humidity will slow it down doesn't seem to be panning out as hoped either. Singapore has had a major flare-up with 725 new cases in the last day. It's 92 degrees there with 65% humidity. The outbreak is in an area where migrant workers live in tight quarters. But Disney is an awful lot of "close quarters"....whether it's waiting in lines, being crammed into "pre-attraction" type areas, crowding to get into the parks themselves, crowding on buses, ferries, monorails, fireworks...on and on.

If they're able to get some of the operation up and running by June, it won't be a lot of it. Nothing will be "normal" at Disney for the next 12-18 months.

 

[princessmommyx3]

Unfortunately, as much as we all wish this was true, it isn't. Studies out of China and our CDC estimates that the number of of people positive with COVID-19 is 10 times higher than total known cases. We have roughly 707,000 known cases in the United States. So, we likely have a bit over 7 million people in our population that has been infected with the virus. Among *those* 7 million....are that 25-50% or so who are completely asymptomatic and/or silent spreaders of the virus. And yes, if you go to places like hospitals and nursing homes you're going to find many more asymptomatic positive folks than in random places where the virus isn't as prevalent.

So that's only about 2% of the population if 7 million people have had the virus in some form.

An antibody study just came out from the Bay Area that found that the actual number of cases could be up to 85 times higher than currently diagnosed. If true, then the number of people diagnosed today in the US - about 707,000 x 85 = 60,000,000, which is about 20% of the total US population.