I think the general consensus is YMMV. I find the best thing to do is plan early. The earlier you plan, the more options you have available. Also, if you can be flexible with dates, that is huge in finding the best rates. I also think most will advise you not to book packages (unless you find that super magical deal...which is like finding a live unicorn). When you decide to start planning find the best deal you can, for the dates you want...and book a room. Do not wait to book. Why? Because you can always re-book, if/when you find a better rate. You can cancel your reservations 5 days, in advance of your stay, and get a full refund...not so with a package (unless you buy additional, costly, travel insurance). Also, while you are doing your daily check for deals, play with the dates (if you can)...you may find cheaper dates just before or just after your original dates...I once found it about $7 cheaper to stay an extra day, by shifting my arrival 2 days earlier. It can actually become a fun little sport to hunt down good deals. And, as mentioned, you can book an AP rate without having an AP, yet...and, you may find a better deal and not need to purchase one...now there's a magic number...not everyone in your group needs an AP to get the rate...only one. But, if you plan to be in the parks 4 or more days...and you think there is a chance you might be back within the year, you might want to go ahead and get APs, because the 4+ days tickets are going to be close on price to the lowest APs. If you do go with APs, please read about each level, their restrictions and blockout dates, before you decide which to purchase.