Some perspective on the risk of dying from coronavirus versus normal annual risk

[kdonnel]

The chart was logarithmic.

According to its numbers, the chance of death by Covid is similar to every other possible cause of death across a year combined, including those 600,000.

The chances of death for both Covid or all other starts under .01% for very young, and works its way up to around 1% for 50-60yo, and nearing 10% for 78-90yo.

I don't think LSUMiss was even talking about the chart I posted. She was responding to a claim that more people are dying every day from Covid then from cancer and heart disease combined.

In 2019 in the US, Cancer killed an estimated 606880 people. Cardio Vascular Disease killed 840768. If spread out evenly over 365 days that is just under 4000 a day. I don't think we have reached that point, yet?, with Covid.

In 2019 the US averaged over 7700 deaths a day across all causes.

 

[monsterkitty]

I don't think LSUMiss was even talking about the chart I posted. She was responding to a claim that more people are dying every day from Covid then from cancer and heart disease combined.

In 2019 in the US, Cancer killed an estimated 606880 people. Cardio Vascular Disease killed 840768. If spread out evenly over 365 days that is just under 4000 a day. I don't think we have reached that point, yet?, with Covid.

In 2019 the US averaged over 7700 deaths a day across all causes.

To me this isn't about the numbers. It's about the people. But let's talk about those numbers.

Each number represents a person. A person who is a mother, father, grandmother, grandfather, child, sister, brother - you get the idea. Each one of those numbers is a valued and loved human being.

Why is it okay to say that heart disease and cancer combined still kill more people each day than this virus? Every time someone posts that this is only killing the elderly or high risk so it's okay, I see it as devaluing that person's life. It's incredibly sad to me that people who should be revered in our society as someone who has now expendable or irrelevant, a piece of garbage to be tossed aside so that others can value a life style over a life.

 

[Heather07438]

I don't think LSUMiss was even talking about the chart I posted.

It was in response to

More people are dying every day from COVID than cancer and heart disease combined.

The conversation questions how is it possible that Covid is killing worse than cancer which kills 600k yearly (we're nowhere near that yet, right?). Looking at the chart from a logarithmic view, it is totally possible to include those 600k no problem (which also supports it can be happening on a daily basis).

 

[Heather07438]

In 2019 in the US, Cancer killed an estimated 606880 people. Cardio Vascular Disease killed 840768. If spread out evenly over 365 days that is just under 4000 a day. I don't think we have reached that point, yet?, with Covid.

Now consider if the US was not locked down. We are seeing covid kill more than cancer and heart disease in the hotspots. But plenty of areas have hardly any exposure right now. What happens when they do get higher exposure? The will also see covid killing more than cancer and heart disease.

Without relying on anybody's data, I can look at what is going on around me. DH's and my peer group locally (friend's and acquaintances) are 45-60yo generally. Every year we lose maybe one of our friends, 2 in a bad year (looking back over the past 5 yrs). This year we've already lost 5 to covid.

ETA- I really should add that we live in a densely populated area and have a wide network of friends and acquaintances. While it hurts that we've lost these people, I'd estimate 98-99% of my friends in that age group have survived so far and exposure in our area is at absolute minimum 10%, more likely over 20%.

 

[kdonnel]

To me this isn't about the numbers. It's about the people. But let's talk about those numbers.

Each number represents a person. A person who is a mother, father, grandmother, grandfather, child, sister, brother - you get the idea. Each one of those numbers is a valued and loved human being.

Why is it okay to say that heart disease and cancer combined still kill more people each day than this virus? Every time someone posts that this is only killing the elderly or high risk so it's okay, I see it as devaluing that person's life. It's incredibly sad to me that people who should be revered in our society as someone who has now expendable or irrelevant, a piece of garbage to be tossed aside so that others can value a life style over a life.

Who said it is okay that heart disease and cancer combined still kill more people each day than this virus? The misstatement was corrected. The local doctor telling people incorrect statistics should stop.

The article is all about perspective. Providing data to the decision makers so they can decide how and when to open.

Then providing that same data to people so they can decide how they want to act based on the openings.

 

[monsterkitty]

We need to stop focusing on the COVID 19 deaths and turn that talk to the other complications the virus is causing. While you may not be in the age bracket that has an increased death risk, you probably are in the bracket that the virus is causing strokes, heart attacks, kidney failure, lung damage, and a myriad of other complications we're seeing.

If you suffer a stroke caused by the virus, how will that affect your current job? Can you do that job if you have limited mobility?

That heart damage you sustained from the virus will affect how your heart pumps blood carrying oxygen throughout your body. I know that when my dad had his first heart attack at 36, he was told he would never work again because of the damage. How would that news affect your ability to earn a living wage?

Sustain a bit of kidney damage from the virus? Now you have to go in for dialysis three times a week and sit there for four hours at a time. How is taking time off for this procedure going to affect your work output?

The virus is more than just deaths. It's causing harm to the bodies it infects way beyond what they've seen from other viruses. We need to stop and think about how will this virus affect me when I do survive the infection?

Please stop focusing on the deaths in these arguments of we have to reopen. Remember the other consequences that are along for the ride with COVID 19. Catching the virus is the starting point of the impact you will feel for the remainder of your life.

 

[monsterkitty]

Who said it is okay that heart disease and cancer combined still kill more people each day than this virus? The misstatement was corrected. The local doctor telling people incorrect statistics should stop.

The article is all about perspective. Providing data to the decision makers so they can decide how and when to open.

Then providing that same data to people so they can decide how they want to act based on the openings.

Sorry I missed the correction. However, I am standing by that every time someone brings up that death rate or chances of a person dying aren't that great unless they fall into the high risk category, they are devaluing a human life.

 

[LSUmiss]

I don't think LSUMiss was even talking about the chart I posted. She was responding to a claim that more people are dying every day from Covid then from cancer and heart disease combined.

In 2019 in the US, Cancer killed an estimated 606880 people. Cardio Vascular Disease killed 840768. If spread out evenly over 365 days that is just under 4000 a day. I don't think we have reached that point, yet?, with Covid.

In 2019 the US averaged over 7700 deaths a day across all causes.

Exactly. And cancer is personal to me as I understand Covid might be to someone who lost someone to it. But, like I said before 600,000 die a year of cancer in the US alone & we don’t shut down the world.

 

[SirDuff]

Exactly. And cancer is personal to me as I understand Covid might be to someone who lost someone to it. But, like I said before 600,000 die a year of cancer in the US alone & we don’t shut down the world.

Because it wouldn't help if we did. Cancer is not communicable. Covid is. Totally different. The fact that we don't "shut down the world" due to cancer deaths is not, at all, an argument against doing so for Covid. It's a complete red herring.

 

[Heather07438]

Exactly. And cancer is personal to me as I understand Covid might be to someone who lost someone to it. But, like I said before 600,000 die a year of cancer in the US alone & we don’t shut down the world.

Shutting down the world would hardly do anything to decrease cancer rates in the US.

If there was an option to cure* those 600k by altering the way we go about things for a year, how many people would be willing?

*eta- that's wrong. Better to ask "option to make a significant reduction" because that is something we may expect from postponing infection rates.

 

[LSUmiss]

Because it wouldn't help if we did. Cancer is not communicable. Covid is. Totally different. The fact that we don't "shut down the world" due to cancer deaths is not, at all, an argument against doing so for Covid. It's a complete red herring.

Disagree. My dad died of cancer & lived in an area that would later be nicknamed “cancer alley” (we didn't know that when he lived there). There are industries that could be shut down b/c of the contribution to cancer-causing pollution, but they’re allowed to continue to operate b/c it’s considered important to the economy.

 

[LSUmiss]

Shutting down the world would hardly do anything to decrease cancer rates in the US.

If there was an option to cure those 600k by altering the way we go about things for a year, how many people would be willing?

And if there is no vaccine or cure ever, then shutting down the world will do nothing for Covid either. When things open back up, some ppl will get it & some ppl will die. But, that will still be far less then those who get & die from cancer.

 

[RamblingMad]

This is a mindset I don't understand - "we're all going to die anyway, so why worry about the coronavirus."

When my brakes stop working, I don't say "I'm going to die someday anyway, so I'm going to drive over to McDonalds with no brakes."

As a society, we do all kinds of things to reduce the risk of death. We get physicals. Our doctors order screening tests. We regulate car safety, airline safety, train safety. We regulate the sale of drugs. Of alcohol. I could go on for days.

That's why I don't get why people seem to think there are only two possible responses to the coronavirus: make everyone stay at home until the end of time, or open everything. take no precautions, and whoever dies, dies. There's a very, very large middle ground. In my state, there are criteria set for each phase of re-opening, and when a county meets the criteria, they begin the next phase. Simple. Reasonable. Understandable.

At the order of our governor, we're wearing masks when we go out in public. I hate it. I have asthma. It's horribly uncomfortable. But I do it because it's a simple thing that we in the community can do to protect each other. Is my temporary discomfort a reason to risk someone else's life? No.

That's more or less how we do it with other risks in society. We work with experts to find a reasonable balance of safety and freedom, and act accordingly. I don't see why that's a problem with COVID.

I think people want to go back to work more than they fear dying from or spreading the virus. I feel like this is due to the American work ethic and lack of adequate social safety nets for the unemployed. To accomplish their goal of going back to work, they need to find a compelling narrative.

What people forget is that once we go back, everything won’t rebound instantly. We live in a global world with global supply chains, so if our peers overseas aren’t ready to buy American goods, it doesn’t make sense to make them or ship them. Likewise, even with everything reopening, some people will continue to order online and do carry out and delivery. The reality is that any recovery is going to take years, not months.

 

[mjkacmom]

And if there is no vaccine or cure ever, then shutting down the world will do nothing for Covid either. When things open back up, some ppl will get it & some ppl will die. But, that will still be far less then those who get & die from cancer.

Who know how much less. COVID deaths in the US are around 77,000 - that’s in 2 months of the year, with country wide shutdowns in place.

 

[Tjddis]

I just about wore out the “like” button on the responses to this chart
A few things:
I am not getting cancer if somebody sneezes on me

Heart blockage might not kill me either. I can get bypass. Would rather not try and see

As someone mentioned after effects of this virus are still not known. There are now reports it is causing a dangerous inflammation in children. Rather they not get it

You are of course free to assume any risk to your life as you so choose. But it’s like smoking. You can smoke all you want. But most places say you can’t smoke here because your second hand smoke is dangerous to me. So is your second hand covid. And I can see if you are smoking and avoid you...

Not much of this matters. Those who think it is serious wont change their view. Those who don’t will not. Until it touches them personally.

 

[Heather07438]

And if there is no vaccine or cure ever, then shutting down the world will do nothing for Covid either. When things open back up, some ppl will get it & some ppl will die. But, that will still be far less then those who get & die from cancer.

I get what you're saying and in some ways it does make sense. If people are going to die no matter what, how does buying an extra 6 -12 months worth all of the other disruption which is quite significant as well. But what if those 6-12 months buy the treatment and understanding to survive and not die for a good portion of those people?

 

[LSUmiss]

I get what you're saying and in some ways it does make sense. If people are going to die no matter what, how does buying an extra 6 -12 months worth all of the other disruption which is quite significant as well. But what if those 6-12 months buy the treatment and understanding to survive and not die for a good portion of those people?

And agree about that except that waiting an additional 6-12 mos will come at a great cost especially since unemployment is already almost 15%.

 

[Heather07438]

I feel there is a good case to be made for us to make adjustments in how we go about life thru the rest of 2020. As we open, the focus should be around ways we can all work together to reduce spread. That means making some compromises and sacrifices.

 

[LSUmiss]

I just about wore out the “like” button on the responses to this chart
A few things:
I am not getting cancer if somebody sneezes on me

Heart blockage might not kill me either. I can get bypass. Would rather not try and see

As someone mentioned after effects of this virus are still not known. There are now reports it is causing a dangerous inflammation in children. Rather they not get it

You are of course free to assume any risk to your life as you so choose. But it’s like smoking. You can smoke all you want. But most places say you can’t smoke here because your second hand smoke is dangerous to me. So is your second hand covid. And I can see if you are smoking and avoid you...

Not much of this matters. Those who think it is serious wont change their view. Those who don’t will not. Until it touches them personally.

It’s not that I don’t think it’s serious. I get that the other diseases cited aren’t contagious. However, the quantity of deaths has often been cited as proof that things need to be shut down. Ppl say things like it’s killed more Americans than the Vietnam war. While every death is tragic, those kinds of comparisons are made to make it seem more prolific than it is. This subject got brought up b/c a pp said that a DOCTOR on the radio said Covid has killed more ppl than heart disease & cancer combined. That’s not even close to true & is fear mongering unless he’s just that uninformed. Then it’s just negligent. And if there is no cure or vaccine, then we are just delaying the inevitable at a great cost to our economy. Flattening the curve was important b/c we didn’t want ppl dying b/c they didn’t have access to care b/c the hospitals were overwhelmed. But that has been done so we can’t just wait to try to prevent every singe death b/c the cost is just too great.

 

[RamblingMad]

And agree about that except that waiting an additional 6-12 mos will come at a great cost especially since unemployment is already almost 15%.

That’s as of the end of April. That ignores the recent claims filed. It’s closer to 20%, and some states like GA are closer to 30%.