Hawaii Tourism Not Starting Up Until Late Summer

[_auroraborealis_]

That happened in the 19th century. Let's not make this out to be more then what it is. People just don't like it when other people flaunt their law breaking behavior in front of their faces. Even if it is maybe a small minority of people that do it, it's just human nature to associate those negative traits to an entire demographic.

Memories of those who have been colonized against their will is long, longer than those who are not of those groups tend to appreciate.

 

[BlueRibbon]

Even with the Aloha spirit, when people can't eat and/or start losing their houses, there is going to be pressure put on local government to open back up:

https://news.yahoo.com/life-danger-hawaii-battles-record-120502186.html

 

[Mark Thornhill]

Even with the Aloha spirit, when people can't eat and/or start losing their houses, there is going to be pressure put on local government to open back up:

https://news.yahoo.com/life-danger-hawaii-battles-record-120502186.html

Here is the part I don’t get. Hawaii’s numbers for cases and deaths are remarkably low. They isolated themselves from mainland with their quarantine and it worked. Great, awesome.

Is the plan from here to stay isolated until a vaccine is in place? That will be the end of the year at the absolute best case scenario.

Or is the plan to open up in the next month or so with required testing for prospective tourists? Maybe someone knows the numbers better than I highly question if HI will ever have the # of tests required to keep up with incoming daily tourist rates....at least anytime soon. I’m seeing ~600 tests per day now, that won’t cut it. What are daily tourist rates in Summer 30k or so? Even if tests are available, they’re not perfect. Exposure is inevitable. The plan and resources available after exposure is what’s important.

If the idea is that Hawai’i will only reopen their economy under the premise that their confirmed cases/deaths will remain consistent to the last two weeks or so, then there is no way they open this Summer or even Fall for that matter.
Where is a plan that opens up economy anytime soon? I don’t see it and if the leadership’s game plan is to follow the lead of other west coast states, then God be with the state of Hawaii. Their economy will be devastated. What you see now in HI is cupcakes compared to what it’ll look like in July/August.

it would appear leadership chose the quarantine and life w/o much consideration for the economy or the greater population of people. Not going to fault them for that, hard to argue. But buckle down Hawai’i, it’ll be tough to watch as someone who lived in Oahu for years and still makes it back whenever I can.

 

[travelmomof3]

The problem is the longer Hawaii remains closed (compared to other states) the less likely tourism continues in the future. For example, we are considering a trip next May which seems very far away. In reality we would need to start planning this trip over the summer. If there is doubt that Hawaii will be very strict in either reopening or closing down during a wave 2 we will just plan a trip to a different destination. I am not saying that staying closed, etc is in anyway the wrong choice but it won't be worth it to us to risk a vacation there. It becomes a slippery slope of being closed for the summer vs how long until tourists come back at all.

I agree. As much as I like Hawaii I'd prefer to book my trips to places I think will be welcoming to tourists.

 

[thedogatemyhomework]

the more time that passes the more it becomes clear that there isn't a plan, and hasn't ever been one beyond "lets wait and see how this plays out". for march, and most of april that was an ok plan...there wasn't enough information, supplies were...difficult to come by, and shutting things down for a while could provide enough time to regroup, and figure out a real plan.

problem is...there still isn't much of a plan...due to hawaii's situation any effective plan would need full buy in from the hotels, airlines, and transportation (bus/taxi/etc.)...and its only been in the past week that it seems like the hotels and transportation have been more involved (one time use key cards for hotels, and no rentals for tourists...I believe both are voluntary...).

the only "phase" thats being discussed for loosening restrictions currently are the "medium risk" businesses (tourism and large gatherings being "high risk"). the lt. governors suggested plan of testing before getting on the plane to fly over would require a ton of other states to agree as well as all the airlines. if it took nearly 2 months to go from no enforcement of self quarantine to 1 time use key card with local hotels (and this would only trigger a call to the police when the guest returns to the front desk to get another key...)...not sure how long (if at all) it would take to get airlines to agree/implement/enforce the testing before flying bit.

friday will be very telling as far as just how many small businesses have simply called it and closed for good (oahu retailers in the low risk category can re-open on friday)...and the following week may see even more as many who were hoping to stay open may not see enough business return quickly enough for that to be possible. for those that were lucky enough to get the ppp loans...they may have another few weeks before they have to decide...so that'll be anither interesting week in...mid june or so.

the really bad part for hawaii may still be coming...if things deteriorate in other states...and it becomes necessary to deploy troops...the last lifeline (military...since their income comes from outside the local economy) will go poof.

 

[yowcruiser]

As of May 12, Aulani is accepting reservations after July 1st with a disclaimer that it may open before or after this date, at reduced capacity and with restrictions on the experiences that will be available

 

[corgi_monster]

As of May 12, Aulani is accepting reservations after July 1st with a disclaimer that it may open before or after this date, at reduced capacity and with restrictions on the experiences that will be available

Both the stay-at-home and 14 day quarantine are extended to June 30 so no staycations and virtually no incoming tourists. I don’t think Aulani will open before July 1.

 

[Sepo]

Good thread.

This is a real tough situation.

Word of caution on the numbers. While Hawaii has been very fortunate, it is / was quite hard to test optimally: long turnaround times and limited kits for low-symptom folks. Many doctors in Hawaii reported so much classic Covid, weeks before they were allowed to test, in patients who ultimately never got tested. But regardless, their “serious” case levels have been refreshingly low per capita.

This is a plague of unknowns for Hawaii especially, who relies on tourism at 35K daily at peak times from all directions. Unlike an endemic and epidemic, you cannot contain a pandemic in a short window of months. And getting it wrong, especially this one, can devastate the island in ways that the mainland would not face.

What, when, and how is so unclear to even those of us treating it daily. Swab testing is invasive and uncomfortable and impractical for all travelers. And antibody tests are a big question given the inherent immune response delay and high false negative rate (you’d rather it be the other way: a good test must be sensitive, even if sometimes false positive). And, as a PP stated, they are of potential limited value anyway. Even vaccines will be an unknown given the 3 strains and general history of at best partial effectiveness in similar situations. The Lt Gov was doling out uncooked antibody and pre-flight testing schemes that the local news ran with but the truth is the actual effectiveness is in doubt.

Open too soon: more lockdown with strained resources nearing disaster.
Open too late: unrecoverable economic disaster.

 

[counselormom]

Both the stay-at-home and 14 day quarantine are extended to June 30 so no staycations and virtually no incoming tourists. I don’t think Aulani will open before July 1.

Do you think the Gov. will extend it after the June 30 date? I’m still holding out hope for our late July trip but it’s fading fast. I’m also wondering when an announcement would be made about allowing tourism to resume.

 

[Budzooka]

Do you think the Gov. will extend it after the June 30 date? I’m still holding out hope for our late July trip but it’s fading fast. I’m also wondering when an announcement would be made about allowing tourism to resume.

No kidding. We are scheduled to arrive July 6. First trip there and hope it can happen.

 

[Mark Thornhill]

We had a trip planned for Mid-July but I cancelled. Part of the Disney experience is that incredible lead up to departure date. I feel like at absolute best it will be end of June before we'd know for sure we could go and second, and the experience will be a shell of what it's been in the past. That's just me though, best wishes for all of you.

I had two charter boats scheduled to deep sea fish while in Oahu. The captain rightfully returned my deposit(s) but I felt terrible. His exact words "the effort to keep the virus off the island is more devastating than the virus". Ugh.

 

[SinCityMMAFan]

Do you think the Gov. will extend it after the June 30 date? I’m still holding out hope for our late July trip but it’s fading fast. I’m also wondering when an announcement would be made about allowing tourism to resume.

I feel for anyone in a situation similar to yours. It's very hard to gauge when Hawaii will allow tourism again. I've heard everything from late July to fall to not until there's a vaccine which is anyone's guess when one will be available. I do know that the Lt. Governor this past week mentioned that he is trying to get a system going where arrivals to the islands would get tested either at the airport or at the hotel in which they are staying. I really have no idea how that's going to work with as many flights that come into that airport but I guess it's something that they are looking into and will have to work the wrinkles out of if that's in fact what they are looking to do in order to get tourism back up and running. We currently have a trip planned for September and will be looking to move the airfare and reservation to next April. We were both looking forward to this trip and have been planning it for quite some time but since it's Hawaii and a very expensive vacation we rather put it off until next year and hope things will be back to normal or closer to normal. I would hate to spends thousands on a vacation and come away with a subpar experience.

 

[jodybird511]

I have to say, I felt some relief at the extension of the stay-at-home order. We had originally been planning to arrive on the Big Island on June 22 and at Aulani on June 25. We formally canceled about 10 days ago, though had really known for weeks that we would likely be canceling. I felt good knowing that we wouldn't have been able to go anyway at this point. Hoping to go next summer instead, but who knows...

 

[SinCityMMAFan]

We had a trip planned for Mid-July but I cancelled. Part of the Disney experience is that incredible lead up to departure date. I feel like at absolute best it will be end of June before we'd know for sure we could go and second, and the experience will be a shell of what it's been in the past. That's just me though, best wishes for all of you.

I had two charter boats scheduled to deep sea fish while in Oahu. The captain rightfully returned my deposit(s) but I felt terrible. His exact words "the effort to keep the virus off the island is more devastating than the virus". Ugh.

Glad you were able to get your $ back for that. I know how expensive those charters boats are in Hawaii. Hopefully when you get to go back to Hawaii you can reschedule with the same captain.

 

[corgi_monster]

I highly doubt the 14 day requirement for out-of-state passengers will be lifted before July. At the moment, there is still very strong public sentiment against opening Hawaii up to tourism. Politicians don't seem very motivated to reopen either. For weeks now, state leaders have been talking about crafting a reopening plan . . . but there is still no official plan.

The 14 day quarantine for inter-island travel is still in place. After the inter-island quarantine requirement is lifted, the state will want to observe the numbers for a few weeks before even considering lifting the out-of-state quarantine requirement.

It's impossible to know when tourism will open up, but my best guess will be late August or early September. Visitor numbers started to plunge in March and that's when people first started to file unemployment claims. You can receive up to 6 months of unemployment in Hawaii (or did the federal aid package extend the time frame?). I think the tide of public sentiment will start to turn a month or two before the unemployment checks are scheduled to stop.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

The Abbott tests are rubbish. Anyone who has been leaning on them as hope to open something needs to not do that.

 

[VandVsmama]

The Hawaii governor announced that the 14 day visitor quarantines will continue through June.

 

[longboard55]

I would guess the chances of anymore free money from the government are low. If i had to make a guess they open Aug1 after the $600 ends

 

[thedogatemyhomework]

technically the governor has only announced that he currently plans to extend the self quarantine...the self quarantine hasn't been officially extended..yet. the mayors seem to be trying to keep to their mid month policy updates (with smaller updates coming as needed/permitted).

with national news media having already broadcast that it is official...there might be even more backlash if he decides to change his mind. it is however different that this time around the governor and mayors were talking prior to announcements being made. given the incident with the flower shops and mothers day...it is not impossible that he changes his mind once or twice before the official update happens.

the fishing industry is far more dependent on japan's outlook than the US (as far as the fishing industry in hawaii goes)...so until japan gets back on track the fishing industry in hawaii is going to be hurting...bad. even if the visitor quarantine is lifted soon...fishing charters may not recover for a lot longer.

 

[longboard55]

Hawaii is a state where $26 an hour hotel maids are considered normal. If they think they can shut off tourism they will be getting a wake up call