Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[sethschroeder]

$130 for 100 AKL is way TOO high! I had several discussions with this broker regarding AKL prices as I tried to bid on two different contracts and lost both. Their attitude is that people are willing to pay, so that's the price (according to their 'price checker") which they can manipulate up and down. They are not the only broker out there. There were two 25 point contracts that got full price of $120 last week...which was a fair price for such small contracts with points IMHO.

If someone pays that though the broker is right and actually doing their job.

Sometimes the reason other sites are so low is they don't get traffic or the broker is a quick seller or they have a reputation as a pain to work with.

 

[sethschroeder]

I am thinking any real change in price will come at the end of the year at this point when dues are coming up.

I think part of the low inventory is also impacting the pricing and there is low inventory because "one last trip" got pushed off due to covid.

 

[CastAStone]

I am thinking any real change in price will come at the end of the year at this point when dues are coming up.

I think part of the low inventory is also impacting the pricing and there is low inventory because "one last trip" got pushed off due to covid.

Perfect explanation.

 

[bookwormde]

6/25update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 140-160% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[Brian Noble]

I agree and DISers are likely more knowledgeable buyers so get somewhat lower prices

It's not just that. I suspect some folks who don't get rock-bottom deals are hesitant to post in the ROFR thread for fear of looking like they were not savvy. Even among DISers, I suspect the ROFR thread is the low end of the spectrum.

 

[striker1064]

It's not just that. I suspect some folks who don't get rock-bottom deals are hesitant to post in the ROFR thread for fear of looking like they were not savvy. Even among DISers, I suspect the ROFR thread is the low end of the spectrum.

I agree with this, and I've often wondered how many people are posting lower prices than for what they actually bought to make themselves look better/more savvy. I would guess it's a weirdly high amount.

 

[CastAStone]

I agree with this, and I've often wondered how many people are posting lower prices than for what they actually bought to make themselves look better/more savvy. I would guess it's a weirdly high amount.

I’m tracking actual Old Key West resales via the county so if someone does that....I’ll find you

 

[lovethesun12]

I agree with this, and I've often wondered how many people are posting lower prices than for what they actually bought to make themselves look better/more savvy. I would guess it's a weirdly high amount.

I don't think it would be. For the resorts and contracts I'm interested in, I see a lot of them on the resale site, the ROFR thread, and sometimes check the county site... Not saying it's impossible but I don't think it's the norm.

 

[Goddard Family Adventures]

View attachment 504042

We bought our AKL contract at $110 a point for 155 points. It was double points. So it has 310 points on there now and another 155 coming in February. We just passed ROFR on Tuesday. I thought we got a pretty good deal. They were asking for $117 and we offered $107 and they countered at the $110.

 

[pinkxray]

It's not just that. I suspect some folks who don't get rock-bottom deals are hesitant to post in the ROFR thread for fear of looking like they were not savvy. Even among DISers, I suspect the ROFR thread is the low end of the spectrum.

I paid $100 a pt. for SSR for 100pt contract a few weeks ago. I almost didn’t want to post bc it’s not the best deal compared to some other here but wanted to be a data point.
I am still happy with paying a little extra because it has the Use year I really wanted and had 2020 points I can use.

 

[bookwormde]

6/26 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 300-320% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[mlayton14]

I don’t see any conceivable way prices don’t drop 20-% plus over the next 6 months .. the daily numbers being reported seem like a tsunami of for-sale signs ,

 

[bookwormde]

I don’t see any conceivable way prices don’t drop 20-% plus over the next 6 months .. the daily numbers being reported seem like a tsunami of for-sale signs ,

While contracts for sale are up significantly, as long as heightened demand continues, the rate at which priced decline is going to be limited.

Historically during times of stress it has taken a year or more for demand to drop to its lowest, and resale prices to bottom.

 

[iheartglaciers]

I paid $100 a pt. for SSR for 100pt contract a few weeks ago. I almost didn’t want to post bc it’s not the best deal compared to some other here but wanted to be a data point.
I am still happy with paying a little extra because it has the Use year I really wanted and had 2020 points I can use.

I think it’s totally worth it to pay a little extra for the right contract (home resort, size, and UY). I almost compromised and bought an Aug UY when I really wanted an Oct UY, because I was just impatient. But I’m so glad I ended up waiting for the perfect contract. The two months make a big difference for the when we usually visit!

 

[heynowirv]

That's what I was thinking as well. I was liking the prices that I saw last week between $105 and $110 per point. I contemplated offering $108 but like I said didn't want to offend anyone.

If they're insulted they'll just say no, and then you move on to the next one.I was looking for a BWV Aug UY for months before I found what I was looking for. Keep looking it will turn up,,,eventually.

 

[EM Lawrence]

While contracts for sale are up significantly, as long as heightened demand continues, the rate at which priced decline is going to be limited.

Historically during times of stress it has taken a year or more for demand to drop to its lowest, and resale prices to bottom.

But is demand still high? I know the ROFR thread is just a small sample, but new postings there seem to have slowed way down.

I feel like the mood has shifted since WDW actually announced their reopening procedures. Like cold water has been thrown on the buying fervor. But maybe that’s just me.

 

[CastAStone]

But is demand still high? I know the ROFR thread is just a small sample, but new postings there seem to have slowed way down.

The next 6-12 months will have far fewer people than usual trekking through WDW. Assuming there is some sort of lag between getting home and deciding to buy your first (or next) contract via resale, a prolonged demand slowdown wouldn’t surprise me.

 

[bookwormde]

I will be interested to see if resale no longer being the only game in town (direct sales open) will have any impact

 

[bookwormde]

The next 6-12 months will have far fewer people than usual trekking through WDW. Assuming there is some sort of lag between getting home and deciding to buy your first (or next) contract via resale, a prolonged demand slowdown wouldn’t surprise me.

Yes I am thinking that most of the people buying now were already in the market before Covid or are existing members adding on or swapping out

 

[lovethesun12]

But is demand still high? I know the ROFR thread is just a small sample, but new postings there seem to have slowed way down.

I feel like the mood has shifted since WDW actually announced their reopening procedures. Like cold water has been thrown on the buying fervor. But maybe that’s just me.

For the resorts I'm considering (mostly BLT & Poly) demand for contracts under 120 points is high and over 150 points seems to be low. I've been watching maybe 40 contracts I'm "interested" in (use that loosely because they aren't exactly what I want) for at least a month and they aren't moving. I'm not sure if that's typical though.

I'd really like a 100-120pt poly contract to start but I'm finding they are priced really high (and do tend to sell fast). If we could borrow right now I would have many more options. I was considering going to a 150pt contract which have much better prices, but really I don't need those points (can only get studios at poly anyway and we can't extend the length of our trip because of vacation time) so at this point I will be better off just going 100 points direct (instead of 150 points resale) and getting a few extra perks as well.