Crowd Calendar - which is most reliable?

mafibisha · May 15, 2019

Which crowd calendar do you think is most reliable? Just did another quick check on two I follow - Undercover Tourist and Touring Plans. com - and was surprised to see our days are now somewhat different on each. Or is there another crowd calendar you recommend?
TIA!

FCDub · May 15, 2019

None. Go where you want when you want.

Klayfish · May 16, 2019

mafibisha said:
Which crowd calendar do you think is most reliable? Just did another quick check on two I follow - Undercover Tourist and Touring Plans. com - and was surprised to see our days are now somewhat different on each. Or is there another crowd calendar you recommend?
TIA!

None. They have the same accuracy value as flipping a coin or throwing darts with your eyes closed. Don't waste your time. I also think they're rather misleading...never understand why they call them "crowd" calendars when that isn't what they're claiming to predict.

EdnaMarieMode · May 16, 2019

Agreed with others- none. Even if they are accurate it makes no difference. I’ve been on crowd level 3 days and crowd level 8 days with no discernible difference. Also, one good rain storm can clear out an area and none of those calendars can predict that so far ahead.

They use (among other things) historical data. History does not always repeat itself at Disney. As an example, last year TSL opened, so they only have a small amount of data to work with for HS and it’s based on a time when the park opened with morning EMH for months, and many more evening EMH than it will have this year. This year SWGE will open, and there’s no data to use for prediction there so it’s purely a guess.

Shellbells · May 16, 2019

I use TP and I've done Epcot and MK in the past 2 days and neither day seemed accurate. MK was rated a 4 yesterday and it was packed. Almost all the rides had a 60 minute stand by time.
It wasn't horrible because we used fast passes and had an ADR. We rope dropped which was great but we ended up leaving an toured the resorts around 3.
Today is AK day so we'll see how that goes.

DisneyWishes14 · May 16, 2019

I agree with the others - none. I use Touring Plans for other aspects of our planning, but I don't trust any crowd calendars. The last time I used a crowd calendar, it was off by quite a lot when predicting standby times and it really threw off our plan for the day.

holden · May 16, 2019

None. Expect the worst. If crowds aren’t too bad you’ll be pleasantly surprised.

monkyby87 · May 16, 2019

mafibisha said:
Which crowd calendar do you think is most reliable? Just did another quick check on two I follow - Undercover Tourist and Touring Plans. com - and was surprised to see our days are now somewhat different on each. Or is there another crowd calendar you recommend?
TIA!

You'll get a lot of different answers. Some swear by them, others think they're a complete waste. I'm generally in the latter group; I don't think there are any that are very reliable...at least not anymore. Way back in the day (10-15 or more years ago), not a whole lot was changing at Disney World, and crowd calendars were able to use historic data to forecast busy times throughout the year. Generally speaking they had a fair amount of accuracy. But things have changed quite a bit, and are constantly changing. It's too hard now to predict crowds, and historic data doesn't serve much purpose other than a reflection of days gone by, lol. Now you have DAH, EMM, EMH, quite a few new attractions, FP+, etc. There's just so much ever-changing stuff going on that you can't accurately predict anything anymore.

Not to mention, there's still subjectivity to it. What I think of as a 6 on one of those calendars might feel like a 10 for some people. That's where a lot of people get into trouble; they see a 5, think the rides will be walk-on, and then get upset when they aren't. WDW is crowded now. It really is that simple. You're more than welcome to look at a calendar, but don't put too much faith in it. You'll set yourself up for disappointment.

If you're truly interested in what to expect in terms of crowds, just ask here on the boards. A lot of people here go quite often, and have a very good sense of how things are the parks throughout the year. I'd trust the good folks on these boards much more than any crowd calendar.

cdoc29 · May 16, 2019

I have always had good luck with Touring Plans. You pay for it and they have a daily report on how they did predicting the wait times the day before against the actual wait times. They also do updates once as month as the data trends so it's not a look at it once for the year and your good.

Dallas_Lady · May 16, 2019

There was a time when crowd calendars worked, but now none of them seem to. I was still holding out hope on the crowd calendars until I saw Touring Plans give July 4th a 6/10.

SaintsManiac · May 16, 2019

Dallas_Lady said:
There was a time when crowd calendars worked, but now none of them seem to. I was still holding out hope on the crowd calendars until I saw Touring Plans give July 4th a 6/10.

Ha I just had to go check when I saw your post. It was a 10 at one point, wasn't it?? That's funny.

PrincessArlena'sDad · May 16, 2019

Josh at easywdw used to do them, and they were very accurate. But, he stopped doing them because of changes Disney made that made it a useless endeavor. If you search his site he has a lengthy post explaining it.

However, there are some guidelines that do still apply:

1. Avoid EMH parks if you don't plan on attending the emh

2. If MK has parties that week, non party nights will be packed for HEA.

3. A good touring plan is what you need most of all. Therefore, what parks you want to rd or stay late at may dictate what parks you do on what days.

VeronicaZS · May 16, 2019

Disney's one day ticket prices. Highest priced days = most crowded, Lowest priced days = less crowded.

Klayfish · May 16, 2019

PrincessArlena'sDad said:
However, there are some guidelines that do still apply:

1. Avoid EMH parks if you don't plan on attending the emh

2. If MK has parties that week, non party nights will be packed for HEA.

3. A good touring plan is what you need most of all. Therefore, what parks you want to rd or stay late at may dictate what parks you do on what days.

I partially agree with #2, but IMO #1 and #3 are more myth than fact.

Since we're offsite, we can't participate in EMH. However, we never even look to see what parks have it, let alone try to avoid it. We typically show up at the parks around 9:30-10:00am and have found that it makes no difference whatsoever. I couldn't tell you if a park had EMH that morning or not.

We have essentially no touring plan, and we never rope drop. Yes, we have the advantage of being park veterans, which helps. However, even when we were newbies, we never had any firm plans. Lots of people on this board like to plan and there's nothing wrong with that. However, it's definitely not a needed guideline.

I really think there are very few generalizations that can be made for these things. The only ones I feel have some value are:

1. WDW is the busiest theme park in the world, so it's busy 365 days per year

2. Holidays are busier than non-holidays

3. MK is the busiest park, pretty much always

4. Weekends are generally busier than weekdays (even that is a bit iffy)

Rach3975 · May 16, 2019

I've used Touring Plans, Undercover Tourist, and Kenny the Pirate. I want to find one most accurate and be able to rely on it, but that hasn't happened so far.

I've used TP the most. On our 2016 trip I remember Touring Plans being pretty accurate, but on our 2018 trip they ranged from 1 level off to 4 levels off. (And that's working off their predictions from right before the trip, not months in advance.) Looking at their 2019 predictions, when we're going the same week we did in 2019, I think one day is way off; they seem to be relying much too heavily on data from last year for a day that was affected by an extremely early MK close (4:30). It makes me wonder how many of their other predictions are skewed by things I don't know about.

This year I'm looking at all 3 crowd calendars, but I'm combining their predictions with what I know from being here and our preferences.

Dakota731 · May 16, 2019

And weather changes everything for local visitors. I just wish Disney would have calendars up to date by the time you make ADRs though. I like to use the EMHs so until those dates are published it’s hard to make reservations

monkyby87 · May 16, 2019

Klayfish said:
I partially agree with #2, but IMO #1 and #3 are more myth than fact.

Since we're offsite, we can't participate in EMH. However, we never even look to see what parks have it, let alone try to avoid it. We typically show up at the parks around 9:30-10:00am and have found that it makes no difference whatsoever. I couldn't tell you if a park had EMH that morning or not.

We have essentially no touring plan, and we never rope drop. Yes, we have the advantage of being park veterans, which helps. However, even when we were newbies, we never had any firm plans. Lots of people on this board like to plan and there's nothing wrong with that. However, it's definitely not a needed guideline.

I really think there are very few generalizations that can be made for these things. The only ones I feel have some value are:

1. WDW is the busiest theme park in the world, so it's busy 365 days per year

2. Holidays are busier than non-holidays

3. MK is the busiest park, pretty much always

4. Weekends are generally busier than weekdays (even that is a bit iffy)

I've gone to parks all of the time and never realized if there was an EMH until I happened to see a calendar later on. Based upon the crowd levels while in the park I couldn't tell you if there was an EMH or not. This happened to me at AK the other day, I showed up around 10:00 or so and didn't realize there was an EMH. It was crowded, but it was your typical Disney World crowd.

mafibisha · May 16, 2019

Thanks, all! Just love this board & appreciate the feedback. :flower3:

We’re going this weekend for 3 days in the parks, a somewhat last minute trip. When we first decided a month ago, the crowd predictors were a little different than now. So yea, not sure i believe any of them either!
We’re park veterans too & like to plan, mostly for the great anticipation! But we’ve also learned to go with the flow, & have had some great trips that weren’t much like we planned! LOL :tongue:

monkyby87 · May 16, 2019

mafibisha said:
Thanks, all! Just love this board & appreciate the feedback.

We’re going this weekend for 3 days in the parks, a somewhat last minute trip. When we first decided a month ago, the crowd predictors were a little different than now. So yea, not sure i believe any of them either!
We’re park veterans too & like to plan, mostly for the great anticipation! But we’ve also learned to go with the flow, & have had some great trips that weren’t much like we planned! LOL

Sounds like you know what you're doing and you have great attitudes about everything, which will definitely help you enjoy yourselves

Some people get into a negative mood over things and never get out of that, which will inevitably lead to a disappointing trip. Have fun!!!

Bobb_o · May 16, 2019

TP crowd calendars are garbage. As late as May 4th they said Hollywood Studios would be a 1 on Sept 3rd. The fact that they would publish that means no one should ever pay any attention to them.

When you say crowds you have to specify what you're looking for. If you want low crowds then go in off times like mid-late April [after Easter], May before Memorial Day, September, and January and February outside of some big events like the marathon or holidays like President's Day. If you want low wait times then you're probably better off going during a "busier" time because the parks will be operating at full capacity. As an example you can run 2 sides of BTMR but during low crowd periods Disney will often run just 1 in the morning. That means they're reducing capacity by 50% even though the crowds haven't been reduced by 50%. It's also why 8am opens are better than 9am because less people will get up and go to the parks that early.

If you want a simple calendar look at Disney's ticket prices. Cheaper days will have less people but that also could mean waiting more. If you want a calendar that's a little more involved take a look at Your First Visit's Crowd Calendar and ranked weeks. Apparently the Dis doesn't like Dave so you have to Google it yourself. You should note that Dave's site is obviously catering more towards first time visitors but a lot of the advice holds true even if you're a returner and he will point that out in his posts.

Crowd Calendar - which is most reliable?

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