I actually was just looking at availability today (since I am a glutton for punishment) and was surprised how much there still is - I was looking for over the Rosh Hashanah holiday weekend and even then there were plenty of openings and not at outrageous pricing
Obviously there will be a huge rush for the first opening at
Disneyland and then I am sure the first week at WDW will be crazy too - but wonder if it might not be as absolutely crazy longer term as people fear - or at least more of people waiting for the 2nd attraction to be up before making plans as I am sure a lot of non-Disney fans figure this will be a "once in a lifetime" trip
Agree. For comparison, since we're slow at work (sorry boss if you're reading this), I checked availability for 2 adults and 2 children (9 and 10) for a variety of full weeks (Sunday through Saturday). Some a picked are significant, some are just random. I know the closer we get, some of these may fill up but it's a good reference.
Memorial day week - 21 resorts unavailable
June 9-15 - 16 resorts unavailable
July 4th week- 8 resorts unavailable
Full week before SWGE - 15 resorts unavailable
Full week of.SWGE- 9 resorts unavailable
Labor day week - 6 resorts unavailable
Week after labor day - 8 resorts unavailable
October 6-12 - 13 resorts unavailable
Jersey week - 15 resorts unavailable
Thanksgiving - 18 resorts unavailable
First week of December - 23 resorts unavailable
Now, there's NO way to know how many are staying off-site. But currently, resort occupancy is looking nice. I think Disney overestimated people's ability to book freely. Many can't just change their vacation around after an announcement only 180 days out.