2018 2nd Quarter Earnings for The Walt Disney Company

[rteetz]

I could see it in Asia as well, Since there is a rumor of another Japan Park, but then again Disney doesnt own the Japanese Parks, but increased licensing is still money in the Bank. China is still a very large country and adding on to Shanghai after a couple of years or even Opening another park might be feasible. The only draw back to China though is that the partners in China have already borrowed a significant amount of money for Shanghai and either Disney would have to get newer partners or put more eggs in the basket themselves. If any of the Chinese partners fail it can make Shanghai possibly become the Next DLP and force Disney to invest more to keep it and the brand afloat. Good news right now is that Shanghai is doing well and there is no cloud on the horizon yet.

I think a second park at Hong Kong or Shanghai is likely. Iger even mentioned expanding in China markets. China is much different from Paris and even in China, Hong Kong and Shanghai are very different in themselves.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I think a second park at Hong Kong or Shanghai is likely. Iger even mentioned expanding in China markets. China is much different from Paris and even in China, Hong Kong and Shanghai are very different in themselves.

I think the big expansion they are doing to Hong Kong sort of takes care of that for a bit. Attendance there isn't great and Shanghai has impacted it bit as well. Not saying they would never do a 2nd park there but I would think a 2nd at Shanghai or a different area of China would make more sense in the near term

 

[rteetz]

I think the big expansion they are doing to Hong Kong sort of takes care of that for a bit. Attendance there isn't great and Shanghai has impacted it bit as well. Not saying they would never do a 2nd park there but I would think a 2nd at Shanghai or a different area of China would make more sense in the near term

Hong Kong officials have longed for a second gate even before Shanghai opened. This expansion is supposed to "tie over" the officials for a while. I agree though that Shanghai or other China markets would be more likely.

 

[hertamaniac]

Not sure about a causal relationship here nor a valid reason for raising prices, adding parking fees and charging for things that used to be free first come first served types of things.

Iger stated that the resorts (in addition to studio and parks) were also a leader in revenue so I fully expect to see the parking fees, etc. further bolster Q3/2018 results.

 

[rteetz]

Iger stated that the resorts (in addition to studio and parks) were also a leader in revenue so I fully expect to see the parking fees, etc. further bolster Q3/2018 results.

I am not sure. Do we actually know how many are paying them yet? If you were booked before March 21st you didn't have to pay. Then UK visitors don't have to pay into 2019.

 

[hertamaniac]

I am not sure. Do we actually know how many are paying them yet? If you were booked before March 21st you didn't have to pay. Then UK visitors don't have to pay into 2019.

Are you suggesting there will be no revenue generation in Q3/2018 (reporting ~August 7, 2018) from parking fees?

Q2/2018 ended March 31, 2018 (so if booked after March 21st, I presume that parking fee revenues will be counted towards Q3/2018).

Q3/2018 should end ~July 1, 2018. So that gives a revenue window, if I'm correct, from April 1, 2018 - July 1, 2018). I would venture to say there will be a strong contribution of parking fee revenue in that window.

 

[rteetz]

Are you suggesting there will be no revenue generation in Q3/2018 (reporting ~August 7, 2018) from parking fees?

Q2/2018 ended March 31, 2018 (so if booked after March 21st, I presume that parking fee revenues will be counted towards Q3/2018).

Q3/2018 should end ~July 1, 2018. So that gives a revenue window, if I'm correct, from April 1, 2018 - July 1, 2018). I would venture to say there will be a strong contribution of parking fee revenue in that window.

I am suggesting if there is it may not be noticeable. My question is how many are actually paying the parking fees right now?

 

[hertamaniac]

I am suggesting if there is it may not be noticeable. My question is how many are actually paying the parking fees right now?

The magnitude of the fees contribution to overall resort revenue is likely nebulous to the public; I presume WDW resort upper management has full exposure to quantify the guests paying the fees.

 

[rteetz]

The magnitude of the fees contribution to overall resort revenue is likely nebulous to the public; I presume WDW resort upper management has full exposure to quantify the guests paying the fees.

I know we won't ever know numbers. I just feel the impact isn't very big on this as of yet. I'd love to see numbers on how many people fly vs. drive and then how many booked before March 21st and UK numbers. I feel we won't see a revenue uptick from the parking fees until 2019.

 

[hertamaniac]

I know we won't ever know numbers. I just feel the impact isn't very big on this as of yet. I'd love to see numbers on how many people fly vs. drive and then how many booked before March 21st and UK numbers. I feel we won't see a revenue uptick from the parking fees until 2019.

Perhaps someone has already done a back of the envelope calculation?

Value = $13/night
Moderate = $19/night
Deluxe = $24/night

How many resort parking spaces per tier? I need help on these numbers.

Use 90 days/quarter window and we just got the Q2/2018 occupancy % at 90. Unless I'm missing something, I think we can generate a "guess" at projected revenue from parking fees. Yes, occupancy % does not equal parking fees, but we can generalize.

 

[rteetz]

Perhaps someone has already done a back of the envelope calculation?

Value = $13/night
Moderate = $19/night
Deluxe = $24/night

How many resort parking spaces per tier? I need help on these numbers.

Use 90 days/quarter window and we just got the Q2/2018 occupancy % at 90. Unless I'm missing something, I think we can generate a "guess" at projected revenue from parking fees.

But not everyone that is staying at these resorts has a car. Then not everyone with a car is paying the fee. There are a lot of variables here.

 

[hertamaniac]

But not everyone that is staying at these resorts has a car. Then not everyone with a car is paying the fee. There are a lot of variables here.

Yes, occupancy % does not equal parking fees, but we can generalize.

 

[rteetz]

Yes, occupancy % does not equal parking fees, but we can generalize.

I wouldn't even want to do that because the generalized number wouldn't be anywhere near the actual number.

 

[hertamaniac]

I wouldn't even want to do that because the generalized number wouldn't be anywhere near the actual number.

We won't know the actual numbers (as you said above), but might give us a range of reasonable expectation given our visibility; I think it's a worthy exercise.

 

[rteetz]

We won't know the actual numbers (as you said above), but might give us a range of reasonable expectation given our visibility; I think it's a worthy exercise.

Go ahead if you want but to me it doesn't make sense to given that every person vacationing at WDW is doing something different.

 

[hertamaniac]

Go ahead if you want but to me it doesn't make sense to given that every person vacationing at WDW is doing something different.

OK. Can you help me get the parking space quantities by tier level?

 

[hertamaniac]

OK. Can you help me get the parking space quantities by tier level?

Disregard. I'm going to use the 2017 AR as a baseline "guesstimate" at ~22,000 rooms.

 

[hertamaniac]

Model is for entertainment purposes only and is NOT accurate. There are many assumptions and this model should, in no way, be construed as viable data. But, I did this exercise, and decided to publish it, to get a sense of a singular potential model.

Rather than having this model being heavily critiqued, I would hope some would appreciate the effort behind it.

 

[rteetz]

While it is great and all it still doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things.

 

[hertamaniac]

While it is great and all it still doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things.

In an $18.4B annual pie for P&R in 2017, it is virtually non-existent even at the high end of this model. But, if I was a resort manager, I would think this revenue would feed my bonus structure (assuming I had one) and would mean a great deal to me.