Availability doesn't equal demand - but it does show the trend. If studios are completely booked at 10 months and 1-BDs are still available at 4 months, it COULD just be that there is demand for ONE less 1-BD than studios. However, in reality that piece of data would tell us that the studios are in higher demand since people feel the need to get them booked further in advance.
Let's see if we can use the charts to get a better feel for true
demand.
An example from my availability charts - Wilderness lodge - Boulder Ridge comparison of Studios and 1-bedrooms. I have included the studio / 1-BD as well as the somewhat limited 2-BD data we have developed to date in the tables below.
View attachment 375067 View attachment 375068 View attachment 375071
Even with only about 1/3 of the data on complete, it's pretty fair to say that the order of
availability is STUDIO < 2-BD < 1-BD. Yes, the 2-BD data is limited, but the trend is already becoming apparent.
But the only way to assess
demand would be if we knew exactly how many rooms are being used in each of the three categories. (If you have 1000 rooms in one category and 20 rooms in another, the one with 1000 rooms could have 999 rooms booked before the 20, and the 1000 room category would have greater demand.
Wilderness Lodge has 20 dedicated studios, 27 dedicated 1-Bedrooms, 45 2-BD lock-offs that can be split, and 44 dedicated 2-BD.
So in theory this COULD be as high as 65 studios, 72 1-BD, and 44 2-BD.
The biggest question mark in assessing DEMAND based on availability is in knowing how many 2-BD book as studio/1-BD. Since members could in theory ALWAYS pick the 2-BD lock-offs ahead of the 2-BD dedicated when booking, you could have these disappear quicker for THAT reason as opposed to being studio.
So - for the sake of argument - I am going to be rather generous to the 2-BD renters and say that HALF of the dedicated 2-BD book as 2-BD. (Or let's say 23 are split, and 22 stay as 2-BD. The data below says this is a generous thing to do, but of we choose this it says we have on any given week:
43 studios
50 1-BDs
66 2-BDs (22 lock-offs, 44 dedicated)
So again, I'll point out that if only HALF the lock-offs book as studios, that means their are significantly MORE 2-BDs than either studios OR 1-BDs.
But in the scenario above - with 43 studios always being FIRST as the charts show - there are MORE 2-BDs then there are 1-BDs.
Yet the charts STILL show that 2-BDs are GONE before 1-BDs, even though there are more of them.
So that simple fact - MORE 2-BDs are gone FIRST, and FEWER 1-BDs are gone LATER, tells us
without any doubt that 2-BDs are in higher demand than 1-BDs. This scenario breaks the argument that 1-BD points needed to be raised because demand there is higher than 2-BDs.
The only way to possibly make the data go the other way - that 1-BDs could be more in demand than 2-BDs is there would have to be MORE 1-BD availability than 2-BDs.
So let's look at a much farther scenario - that 90% of the 2-BD lock-offs go to studios.
Now we have
60 studios
67 1-BDs
49 2-BDs (5 lockoffs, 44 dedicated)
Now, in THIS scenario - one could make the argument that 1-BDs don't have a higher demand, they just have a higher availability, and it also would match the charts:
1) The studios book up much faster than the 1-BDs and 2-BDs.
2) The 2-BDs book second, but there aren't as many available.
3) 1-BDs are last to book not because they are not as popular as 2-BDs, but because there are more available.
This is the ONLY way to make what Disney did make sense - it says that the DEMAND for studios and 1-bedrooms are higher - so we're going to make them both more expensive and 2-BDs less expensive.
But BOTH scenarios have no logic behind them when it comes to raising the 1-BD points and lowering the 2-BD points:
Scenario A: 2-BDs are in higher demand than 1-BDs, so we are going to raise points on studios and 1-BDs and lower them on 2-BDs.
Scenario B: 1-BDs are actually in higher demand than 2-BDs since there is more of them available - so we are going to raise points on studios and 1-BDs and lower them on 2-BDs. So we are going to drive more people to the room size in the least demand.
I spent way too long on this - because I'm just trying to grasp a really good argument for raising points on both studios and 1-BDS in a world with many rooms built as lock-offs, and it just never comes out making sense. There's no scenario I can come with where raising the 1-BD portion of the lock-off premium really is beneficial to members. (Studios yes...both studios and 1-BDs, no.)
