Any guess on what dues will look like this year?

[the_grinch]

just seeing if someone can read the tea leaves on what they think dues will be this year.

 

[Sandisw]

I am predicting a similar increase as in years past for most resorts..
between 3 to 5%.

The only one I am not sure about is RIV because they didn’t get a true accounting of what a years worth of expenses would be, I think this one could be lower than others.

In terms of credit for 2020, I don’t think it will be very much at all.

 

[the_grinch]

thanks for your opinion, but what about the low crowds won't that mean not as many housekeepers ,bus driver and things like that so lower dues? and has there been layoff on dvc side?

 

[Stargazer65]

Maybe with all the changes going on we'll get lucky and they'll forget this year.

 

[Sandisw]

There have been DVC layoffs but many from The DVD side, But Remember, DVC gets a percentage to manage so I think some of those layoffs won’t necessarily impact dues as much as it will ensure their profit isn’t affected as much.

The dues will be based on people there, but in terms of things like housekeeping, etc, the cleaning procedures are more intensive and many more common areas being treated differently. Less rooms to clean maybe, but when they do, they have to do extra like wrapping. remotes, etc.

Buses are being run with a lot less guests, so again, not sure there is a reduction in number of them, just running with less people. There may even be more buses running to each resort too. And, again, the sanitizing efforts may cost more.

I am just not convinced that we will see much in terms of credits for 2020, and I just don’t see DVC being conservative on dues since any overages have to be covered by them, so I think 2021 will be run as normal.

The only resort that is also up in the air, which I wasn’t even thinking of is VGC given it is still closed. That one might see a larger 2020 credit.

 

[Chuck S]

I would think there would be a pretty good credit from transportation, given busses weren't running, so no fuel was used, and no regular maintenance /upkeep costs, even though they continued to pay drivers. Also utilities as interior lighting would be off in the rooms, A/Cs would be more efficient without doors opening and closing, no heat from cooking in the units, or heat from showers, and less hot water being used...and water usage overall would be down a lot, no bathing or flushing. But those savings would be tempered some by costs associated with re-opening the resorts, and increased housekeeping protocols. Probably no saving on cast member costs, since they were paid for several weeks during the down time.

 

[DebbieB]

They said they would review the 2020 expenses and announce in December. I would expect a small credit, as Chuck explained. Maybe to offset the increase for next year, cast members got a wage increase on 10/1. I also own at VGC and wonder where that will go with 7 months closed now.

 

[drusba]

Whether there will be any credit and if so, how much, is mostly just guess work for us at this time. Points made above by both Sandisw and Chuck S are all valid while at the same time leaving us without a logical way to figure out the possible cost additions or savings that might actually exist.

Moreover, we cannot be sure how total dues for 2021 will be calculated regardless of any credits. Typically, the estimated dues are those calculated based on the assumption that WDW will be at its normal crowded pace with all operations going full force. In that situation, we would likely get some increases including to reflect the higher cleaning costs. But we do not know if that will be the basis of estimating 2021 dues, e.g., DVC may assume that at least for part of the year, there may be limited operations.That is a possibility because its obligation is to make a reasonable estimate of what the actual year will cost and, in doing so, it may prefer avoiding overestimating costs if DVC believes total costs will be lower because of reduced operations for some period of time.

In other words, we are in a new world at least for the foreseeable future, and absent our being the fly in the room during DVC meetings to discuss next years dues (or under current circumstances the hacker of the virtual DVC meetings to discuss next years dues), we really do not have much to base an opinion on.

 

[FinnFogg]

There have been DVC layoffs but many from The DVD side, But Remember, DVC gets a percentage to manage so I think some of those layoffs won’t necessarily impact dues as much as it will ensure their profit isn’t affected as much.

The dues will be based on people there, but in terms of things like housekeeping, etc, the cleaning procedures are more intensive and many more common areas being treated differently. Less rooms to clean maybe, but when they do, they have to do extra like wrapping. remotes, etc.

Buses are being run with a lot less guests, so again, not sure there is a reduction in number of them, just running with less people. There may even be more buses running to each resort too. And, again, the sanitizing efforts may cost more.

I am just not convinced that we will see much in terms of credits for 2020, and I just don’t see DVC being conservative on dues since any overages have to be covered by them, so I think 2021 will be run as normal.

The only resort that is also up in the air, which I wasn’t even thinking of is VGC given it is still closed. That one might see a larger 2020 credit.

What are your thoughts re Aulani? It’s opening on Nov 1 (hopefully!), but will have been shut down for 7.5 months of the year.

 

[Sandisw]

What are your thoughts re Aulani? It’s opening on Nov 1 (hopefully!), but will have been shut down for 7.5 months of the year.

I think that credits for Aulani should be more than WDW/HH/VB. With the current testing requirements, etc, the number of people who actually go may be even further reduced.

Aulani is harder for me to think about because there are not things like transportation, etc.

But, as mentioned, all of us are just guessing because we really don’t know how they are going to plan for the year and whether they will assume similar expenses or not,

 

[CP3uhoh]

Dumb question and I think I know the answer but if they give a credit for 2020, and I’m thinking specifically for Aulani and GCV, they would set the dues for 21’ and deduct the credit from what is due?

 

[Ms.Minnie]

I'm not counting on a big credit or any credit for that matter because of the need for increased cleaning now and having to run more buses. If we do get a credit I will be pleasantly surprised.

 

[Sandisw]

Dumb question and I think I know the answer but if they give a credit for 2020, and I’m thinking specifically for Aulani and GCV, they would set the dues for 21’ and deduct the credit from what is due?

Correct. Normally, any overage in a year is put into the capital reserves budget. It doesn’t go back to pwners,

This year, DVCM said they would use it as a credit. So, they will set 2021 dues as normal, based on what they believe expenses for 2021 will be,

Then, they will give owners whatever credit was created for 2020. I am not thinking it will amount to much.

 

[TinkB278]

When are the new dues typically announced?

 

[CP3uhoh]

Correct. Normally, any overage in a year is put into the capital reserves budget. It doesn’t go back to pwners,

This year, DVCM said they would use it as a credit. So, they will set 2021 dues as normal, based on what they believe expenses for 2021 will be,

Then, they will give owners whatever credit was created for 2020. I am not thinking it will amount to much.

There should be a very big credit for Aulani and GCV..Disneyland will end up being closed 2/3 of the year! Not to mention, the DVC portion of the resort is not large. Should be be at least, at least 50%, people should be irate if it’s not. Everyone deserves some grace during this time but the money wasn’t spent, period, give it back. World is different, barely four months and other factors that have been mentioned.

 

[Sandisw]

There should be a very big credit for Aulani and GCV..Disneyland will end up being closed 2/3 of the year! Not to mention, the DVC portion of the resort is not large. Should be be at least, at least 50%, people should be irate if it’s not. Everyone deserves some grace during this time but the money wasn’t spent, period, give it back. World is different, barely four months and other factors that have been mentioned.

Just remember they paid CMs for at least 6 weeks, if not longer during the beginning of the shut down,

Even on furlough, they are paying all benefits, including the employees share, which they normally do not do. Some of the laid off employees are being given severance so not sure how that impacts personal costs if those were part of the expenses.

Also, even with resorts closed, things had to be done to keep the resort from going into disarray, While utilities etc will be less during the closed time, they will still be there,

So, sure, there will be credits and to be honest, those two resorts will be larger than the other for sure,

But, a 50% reduction? I doubt it because there will be expenses now that were not part of original dues like additional cleaning and sanitizing, etc, which we have no idea how that will be determined,

Dues estimates will be out in about a month from now so we shall see, It would be great to be wrong for those resort owners!

ETA: Legally, they are not required to even give it back. It can go into capital reserves via the POS. So, them doing what they are doing is above and beyond what legally has to happen.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

A number of expenses are still ongoing at both VGC and Aulani. Maintenance is about 15% of budgets, and may actually be higher for unoccupied resorts (plumbing is an issue; read up on Legionnaires' Disease for details there). Security is probably stable at about 3%. Insurance is 5-7% of dues. I would assume some of utilities is still a legitimate expense. Management fee is about 11%. Property taxes, which haven't changed despite the resorts being vacant. Contrirbution to cap reserves also is not going to credit, as that is how they pay refurbishment over rtime.

 

[CP3uhoh]

Just remember they paid CMs for at least 6 weeks, if not longer during the beginning of the shut down,

Even on furlough, they are paying all benefits, including the employees share, which they normally do not do.

Also, even with resorts closed, things had to be done to keep the resort from going into disarray, While utilities etc will be less during the closed time, they will still be there,

So, sure, there will be credits and to be honest, those two resorts will be larger than the other for sure,

But, a 50% reduction? I doubt it because there will be expenses now that were not part of original dues like additional cleaning and sanitizing, etc, which we have no idea how that will be determined,

Dues estimates will be out in about a month from now so we shall see,

There’s no additional cleaning if you’re not open so they have 0 days so far of additional cleaning. GCV is part of a much larger hotel. There are no standalone amenities, no buses, no lounges etc. Aulani is a different matter obviously.

 

[CP3uhoh]

A number of expenses are still ongoing at both VGC and Aulani. Maintenance is about 15% of budgets, and may actually be higher for unoccupied resorts (plumbing is an issue; read up on Legionnaires' Disease for details there). Security is probably stable at about 3%. Insurance is 5-7% of dues. I would assume some of utilities is still a legitimate expense. Management fee is about 11%. Property taxes, which haven't changed despite the resorts being vacant. Contrirbution to cap reserves also is not going to credit, as that is how they pay refurbishment over rtime.

This makes some sense, the “sanitizing” does not apply.

 

[Sandisw]

There’s no additional cleaning if you’re not open so they have 0 days so far of additional cleaning. GCV is part of a much larger hotel. There are no standalone amenities, no buses, no lounges etc. Aulani is a different matter obviously.

I was referring to the additional cleaning needed And safety protocols once they open back up. They will absolutely have sanitizing procedures that will be needed. No buses, but all other areas.

Also, getting rooms back to occupancy after being vacant so long can require extra cleaning and maintenance too because dormant rooms can end up with problems.