Meshell2002
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Oct 5, 2010
wow, that was a great deal sorry I missed it, but it was probably good I did (so I wouldn't spend the money yet). I'm waiting for June- July.
anyone shoot with the Nikon D7200, D500 or Fuji X-t3?
- Thread starter Meshell2002
- Start date
wow, that was a great deal sorry I missed it, but it was probably good I did (so I wouldn't spend the money yet). I'm waiting for June- July.
Look for deals in May before graduations, and the first half of June pre-father's day. That's the next round of camera/lens discounts coming up. They tend to come three times per year: March because of fiscal year end at most camera companies; May/June for Mother's Day, Father's Day and graduations; and November/December for the holiday season, with the May/June timeframe usually being the best deals on new equipment, with the other two being the best on older equipment as they clear out inventory and channel dump.
The next discounts, which are significant on the D7500 (pretty staggeringly so), start Sunday.
probably going to keep on staggering because the camera industry has moved to mirrorless !
www.flickr.com/photos/mmirrorless
Nope, the mirrorless discounts are just as large or larger as the DSLR ones, with DSLR being 5-20% and mirrorless dropping 20-30% for the month of May out of Nikon and Sony (Canon so far we have no information on yet, but as the RP is already at market share grab pricing there's less room for Canon to move). Sony just hacked off 23% from its A9, with similar numbers coming off of the latest A7 series.probably going to keep on staggering because the camera industry has moved to mirrorless !
We can do a whole lot more analysis, and there's a lot more to do as the Q1 2019 reports are coming out, but the short of it is that besides the bodies with inelastic demand (the D5, D850, the D610, and all of Sony's DSLRs so far) the whole ILC market is being massively price cut across the board, and there's clear market oversupply on almost every model.
If you want a new EOS M body or to move to EOS R, next month is definitely the time to do it.
every year DSLR camera sales keep going down
every year mirrorless camera sales keep going up
will the trend continue in 2019 ?
www.flickr.com/photos/mmirrorless
This is going waaayyyy
but...You're living in the photographic past where there was growth. Not that DSLR aren't going down, just that neither of them are moving up, and haven't been for a while. Technical details below:
In 2018 there were 12,233 additional non-Reflex* shipments than in 2017, a growth of 0.03%, not even keeping up with population growth, and with new models and channel stuffing, sales (not shipment, sales) volume fell about 14% for Mirrorless, and over 25% for DSLR, with hundreds of thousands of mirrorless bodies sitting on shelves compared to a year ago. Once we remove Medium Format, the peak year for 135 and smaller mirrorless camera sales so far was 2016, and the peak year for shipments of 135 and smaller mirrorless was 2017. Peak year for DSLR sales was 2011.
In Q1 2019, year on year camera sales have fallen again by just as much as they dropped in the entirety of 2018, including both categories. That's a four times increase in market contraction rate, which is why the camera makers are scrambling to sell anything they can, with their highly profitable and capable $2000-$3000 bodies are seeing the biggest discounts.
But since you're asking about trends, if the 2011-2018 trendlines, or the 2017-Q1 2019 trendlines continue, Reflex* (including DSLR) will be smaller than Non-Reflex* (including Mirrorless) in 2020 or 2021. The earliest it could occur (two sigma) is Q2 2020, and the latest is Q4 2021.
*CIPA categories lump the Voigtlander Bessa and some Hasselblad and Fuji MF into Non-Reflex, even though it doesn't quite fit the definition of Mirrorless as people understand it, and the Reflex still picks up the Nikon F6 and FM10, and Pentax MF. These represent less than 1% or so of total volume though. CIPA also does not include Leica as they're German.
**To clarify what I meant by inelastic demand in my previous post, it's simply that users of certain models will buy the camera whether or not it's on sale. The D5, D850, Sony DSLRs, and Pentax DSLRs are all great examples of this, where the market for them is just too small to make tweaking the body price matter much. The typical D850 or D5 user is $20,000 into the system at minimum and it's a business expense anyway, and if you want to use your Minolta or Pentax glass you need their bodies. Leica demand is also pretty demand inelastic, they sell for what they sell for and if you have to ask the price you shouldn't buy it. I have no idea what Nikon is doing with the D610 though.
This is going waaayyyy
You're living in the photographic past where there was growth. Not that DSLR aren't going down, just that neither of them are moving up, and haven't been for a while. Technical details below:
In 2018 there were 12,233 additional non-Reflex* shipments than in 2017, a growth of 0.03%, not even keeping up with population growth, and with new models and channel stuffing, sales (not shipment, sales) volume fell about 14% for Mirrorless, and over 25% for DSLR, with hundreds of thousands of mirrorless bodies sitting on shelves compared to a year ago. Once we remove Medium Format, the peak year for 135 and smaller mirrorless camera sales so far was 2016, and the peak year for shipments of 135 and smaller mirrorless was 2017. Peak year for DSLR sales was 2011.
In Q1 2019, year on year camera sales have fallen again by just as much as they dropped in the entirety of 2018, including both categories. That's a four times increase in market contraction rate, which is why the camera makers are scrambling to sell anything they can, with their highly profitable and capable $2000-$3000 bodies are seeing the biggest discounts.
But since you're asking about trends, if the 2011-2018 trendlines, or the 2017-Q1 2019 trendlines continue, Reflex* (including DSLR) will be smaller than Non-Reflex* (including Mirrorless) in 2020 or 2021. The earliest it could occur (two sigma) is Q2 2020, and the latest is Q4 2021.
*CIPA categories lump the Voigtlander Bessa and some Hasselblad and Fuji MF into Non-Reflex, even though it doesn't quite fit the definition of Mirrorless as people understand it, and the Reflex still picks up the Nikon F6 and FM10, and Pentax MF. These represent less than 1% or so of total volume though. CIPA also does not include Leica as they're German.
**To clarify what I meant by inelastic demand in my previous post, it's simply that users of certain models will buy the camera whether or not it's on sale. The D5, D850, Sony DSLRs, and Penhough.
LOL !
DSLR camera sales actually plummeted last year, mirrorless sales increased
(the OP did ask about a mirrorless camera)
Looks like we found a last Nikon DSLR "reflex" owner
Hallelujah !!
Untitled by c w, on FlickrCite your source and bring numbers to back it up, or quit trolling.
Dude, ....... just google !
https://petapixel.com/2018/03/14/death-dslrs-near/
"it is no question that DSLRs will become obsolete in the next years"
I did … then I checked the sources. The article you linked is an opinion piece that lists shipments and labels them as sales, so I pulled sales figures. Fortunately, it's easy enough to check both: www.cipa.jpDude, ....... just google !
https://petapixel.com/2018/03/14/death-dslrs-near/
"it is no question that DSLRs will become obsolete in the next years"
You could even subtract out the non-traditional mirrorless (Fuji MF) and non-DSLR reflex cameras (F6, FM10), then add back in the Leica M equipment, since they're only a handful and the serial ranges and production numbers are known, to get to within a few thousand accuracy for the entire globe. You can also see the January and February numbers of all categories of ILC tanking at CIPA.
I've even said on numerous occasions that a MILC is the future, I just said it wasn't always the right now. I own and use both, as you constantly seem to forget, and instead go on some sort of personal crusade just because my primary body is a recently purchased DSLR model with no mirrorless equivalent. Trust me, I wish there was, and I looked for one, but there still isn't and I can't wait around with old cameras with 150k+ on the shutters and power issues for camera makers to get their act together.
Now for $799 all month brand new, also deals with lenses, and the MSRP dropped to $1,000 as well. Sony, Nikon and Canon all announced discounts tonight, all pretty massive of at least 10% and as much as 30% on all of their bodies, both MILC and DSLR, with only a few notable exceptions at the bottom of full frame (notably the EOS RP and D610). This is the largest price war we've ever seen in still cameras, including the film era and the film SLR fire sales.
dude, join a camera club
mirrorless cameras are smaller and lighter with more features and can easily use big DSLR lens
you will see why the D in DSLR means dinosaur .
www.flickr.com/photos/mmirrorless
Meshell2002
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Oct 5, 2010
oh yes I saw the email from adorama, really eyeing the bundle with the d7500 body and 16-80. I bought a 50/ 1.8d used for $50, it seems to work fine but can't test AF on the d5100, the pics I took with it in MF look very sharp to me.
Watch out for small apertures shooting into the light with that one, otherwise it's a cheap gem of a lens, and AF is very zippy on it, better than the AF-S versions. And of course, for a small aperture you'd probably choose a different lens.
The back of it isn't coated so you can get sensor reflections (it's a film era design and film was less reflective than a digital sensor).Share this page
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