Are DVC Restrictions Affecting Resale Prices?

[CarolMN]

I wonder if all these "doom and gloom" projections for Riviera resale aren't premature. If the resort turns out to be as gorgeous and popular as many believe, contracts will hold their value at least as well as BCV, BWV, and the monorail resorts.

I'd happily buy VGF (and/or BWV, etc.) resale, even if it meant I couldn't stay anywhere else. Doubt I'm the only one.

 

[Bing Showei]

I doubt many educated buyers would be willing to stump up $100+ for points they can use at one resort only.

But people will pay $140/pt for BCV with fewer than 24 years left in the contract. It’s not always about the strict economics.

If the Skyliner is spectacular and the hotel is amazing, people will buy there to stay there. Just like educated people do today with the inflated $/pt prices at BCV and BWV; great resorts, worth being able to know you’ll be in at 11-months.

 

[MickeyTrooper]

I think so many people are way off on this whole thing... STAR WARS will drive this hotel beyond belief.. everyone from 6 to 60 knows about Star Wars.. once they see that it's gonna drive the sales through the roof.. Mark it down (officially on record) The Riviera will be the fastest selling total in Disney history. Plus because the Star Wars hotel won't take points and will be crazy expensive... that will be incentive alone! Star Wars fans are as big as Disney fans.. are not aligned.. Disney is going to tap into another HUGE market!


I wish I had the money to buy direct when it opens and IF the incentive is big enough I might even consider taking a loan..

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

I think so many people are way off on this whole thing... STAR WARS will drive this hotel beyond belief.. everyone from 6 to 60 knows about Star Wars.. once they see that it's gonna drive the sales through the roof.. Mark it down (officially on record) The Riviera will be the fastest selling total in Disney history. Plus because the Star Wars hotel won't take points and will be crazy expensive... that will be incentive alone! Star Wars fans are as big as Disney fans.. are not aligned.. Disney is going to tap into another HUGE market!


I wish I had the money to buy direct when it opens and IF the incentive is big enough I might even consider taking a loan..

That's what Disney management is hoping. Our guide told us exactly that last September at our presentation. I just don't see it. They have scaled back stars wars at sea. The Star Wars movies put out by Disney have been ok but disappointing. Star Wars "land" sounds like a very small land, like Pandora and Toy Story land. Two- three rides? Any time you go to a disney outlet, half the stuff is star wars. Over the last year, the only lego I have seen discounted at walmart has been star wars. Star Wars is over saturated. Sure it will be crowded, like pandora and toy story were, but I will be surprised if it drives dvc sales. If I look I my own kids (all boys), the eldest (16) used to really like Star Wars but no more than say Jurassic park. He is now more interested in Marvel. And my younger two 9 and 10 won't even watch the original 3 star wars. "Boring," they say. The 9 year old is interested in Marvel but not dramatically. My kids like "old" Disney more than anything. And it isn't for lack of trying on our part to try to get them interested in Star Wars. We have some close friends who have 2 boys 11 and 14 and their dad has an entire room in the house dedicated to star wars collectables (lol). And the kids have never been interested in star wars!

 

[MickeyTrooper]

I'll give you that the 2 of the last 4 movies were not smash hits... but .. and this is a big... there has never been a dedicated touch and walk through Star Wars land... Harry Potter created Universal .. and keeps it afloat in many ways.... they don't even make the movies anymore... Star Wars had cartoon, movies, legos, etc....

Yes.. some people will buy because it's Disney and because it gets them to EPOT which buy the way will become more and more Marvel... and yes some people will buy for the Mouse but I just feel like the new resort (at least that one) will be sold faster than any other in DVC history

 

[Jelly563]

That's what Disney management is hoping. Our guide told us exactly that last September at our presentation. I just don't see it. They have scaled back stars wars at sea. Star Wars "land" sounds like a very small land, like Pandora and Toy Story land. Any time you go to a disney outlet, half the stuff is star wars. Over the last year, the only lego I have seen discounted at walmart has been star wars. Star Wars is over saturated. Sure it will be crowded, like pandora and toy story were, but I will be surprised if it drives dvc sales. If I look I my own kids (all boys), the eldest (16) used to really like Star Wars but no more than say Jurassic park. He is now more interested in Marvel. And my younger two 9 and 10 won't even watch the original 3 star wars. "Boring," they say. The 9 year old is interested in Marvel but not dramatically. My kids like "old" Disney more than anything. And it isn't for lack of trying on our part to try to get them interested in Star Wars. We have some close friends who have 2 boys 11 and 14 and their dad has an entire room in the house dedicated to star wars collectables (lol). And the kids have never been interested in star wars!

The real star wars fans are the kids from the 1970's/ early 80's.... Those are the real fans. They are currently in the time period of their lives where they have expendable $$$. Star Wars makes them feel young. You cant buy youth, but u can spend big bucks on something that makes u feel young. Disney is going to need a bunch of new accountants to count their money.

 

[Frederic Civish]

If the "float" price on the resales for Riviera is at or lower that DVD cost to built DVD will ROFR them to repackage and sell as direct points. I feel that this is their long term plan, to always have something to sell for all new DVC resorts going forward without having to pay the currently "high" resale prices.

Very interesting idea, that Disney is creating its own resale market where most people won't be willing to compete.

A corollary of that is that most resale buyers won't be interested in competing with Disney, so they will focus more and more on the L14 resales. This would drive down Riviera resale prices even more, because of less interest, and might make L14 resales even more valuable as time goes on, and drive up L14 resales values.

After a few years, when it becomes obvious to everyone that Disney has 'crippled' Riviera, don't you think a lot of potential buyers will take a look at Disney Direct prices and say, "No thanks!"

I am betting the initial resale prices for Riviera will be at 60% of direct but will quickly drop to 30% as soon as a lot of contracts start being offered for resale in 3 to 4 years.

I think you are probably right in your estimates of Riviera Resale prices. Current resale prices run approximately 55% to 72%, depending on the resort and the size of the contract and the desirability of the property. And they will probably stay in that range. One thing is that I think that people who buy one of the L14 in the resale market today can be pretty confident that, at a minimum, the value of their property is not likely to decrease much, so if or when they go to sell their property down the road, they shouldn't lose much in value. In other words, buy the L14 and you are likely to be able to get your money back, unlike what happens when you buy Direct.

With the increasing rise and use of web information systems, more and more people are going to be looking at Resales and shying away from Direct Sales (a trend which is already happening, but will continue). So, unless Disney can come up with a way to AUGMENT the value of their property - NOT diminish resale value, but find a way to INCREASE Direct value - then they are likely to have a harder and harder time with Direct Sales in the future.

Would it be too idiotic to say that they should work to INCREASE the price of Resales, since the Resales would then be less attractive, comparatively, when high Resale prices are put up against high Direct prices?

 

[Jelly563]

From my observations (working at The Timeshare Store,Inc.® as a resale specialist) the currently resale prices have remained the same since Disney made the change on January 18th. If anything some Sellers are a bit more negotiable with offers, but the list prices have been within the same ranges before the change.

Really ????? because I saw a BWV contract on your site for $157. I also saw a few OKWs for $113-$118 and Poly for $165 (those are some pretty high listings)

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

I'll give you that the 2 of the last 4 movies were not smash hits... but .. and this is a big... there has never been a dedicated touch and walk through Star Wars land... Harry Potter created Universal .. and keeps it afloat in many ways.... they don't even make the movies anymore... Star Wars had cartoon, movies, legos, etc....

Yes.. some people will buy because it's Disney and because it gets them to EPOT which buy the way will become more and more Marvel... and yes some people will buy for the Mouse but I just feel like the new resort (at least that one) will be sold faster than any other in DVC history

It will be interesting to see, but since Disney is already using your argument to try to sell dvc, I am skeptical. Sounds like marketing. And I only know one person who loves Star Wars enough to potentially vacation around it-- and he has never been to Disney and has no desire to go to Star Wars land. The thing about Harry Potter is it is child driven. It is the kids who get adults to head to HP at Universal. I do think it is the other way around with SW. And the dvc marketing is all about vacations with your kids. It just doesn't come together for me. But we'll see.

 

[Frederic Civish]

I'll give you that the 2 of the last 4 movies were not smash hits... but .. and this is a big... there has never been a dedicated touch and walk through Star Wars land... Harry Potter created Universal .. and keeps it afloat in many ways.... they don't even make the movies anymore... Star Wars had cartoon, movies, legos, etc....

Yes.. some people will buy because it's Disney and because it gets them to EPOT which buy the way will become more and more Marvel... and yes some people will buy for the Mouse but I just feel like the new resort (at least that one) will be sold faster than any other in DVC history

I think you are right. More and more I think Disney will be pushing for an overarching theme for each land. Magic Kingdom is of course, THE Magic Kingdom. The wonders of a 'recreated' Disneyland and all the classic Disney movies and any new or recent Fantasy movies.

Hollywood Studios will gravitate more and more to Star Wars, AND the more recent movies that are not 'magical fantasy.' Like Toy Story.

Meanwhile, Epcot will definitely get a 'Marvel' shift. And Animal Kingdom will be the catch all for almost anything else, especially if Nature, Animals or Ecology are a prominent point in the films.

The trouble is, Star Wars and Marvel, although exciting products, are not so 'touchy-feely' as Harry Potter, Diagon Alley and Hogwarts. So I think the advantage will still go to Universal when it comes to that.

 

[MickeyTrooper]

The trouble is, Star Wars and Marvel, although exciting products, are not so 'touchy-feely' as Harry Potter, Diagon Alley and Hogwarts. So I think the advantage will still go to Universal when it comes to that.

My family has been DVC since the beginning ... however a few years ago I took my kids to Universal ... wow they loved it... "everything was so cool and better... including the food"!! So we went back again the next year.... HOWEVER... "Dad all the rides are tv screens and not real rides"

If and "IF" is a big word Disney does Disney SW correctly.. with real rides and real touching then it will be a massive hit.

BTW - we went right back to Disney the following year and bought even more points!!

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I think so many people are way off on this whole thing... STAR WARS will drive this hotel beyond belief.. everyone from 6 to 60 knows about Star Wars.. once they see that it's gonna drive the sales through the roof.. Mark it down (officially on record) The Riviera will be the fastest selling total in Disney history. Plus because the Star Wars hotel won't take points and will be crazy expensive... that will be incentive alone! Star Wars fans are as big as Disney fans.. are not aligned.. Disney is going to tap into another HUGE market!


I wish I had the money to buy direct when it opens and IF the incentive is big enough I might even consider taking a loan..

Star Wars is a land in a park. I am one that used to love to get down for Star Wars weekends but the land they are building, to me, is just another land in the park and while it will be a draw - a big draw for awhile - it isn't like they built a Star Wars park. I am looking forward to it and have no doubt we'll enjoy it but driving trips year after year or needing to stay a gondola ride away? It just isn't that big and I can get it at DL too. Continuing Star Wars weekends? That would have been more of a pull for me - just loved them.

Riviera will sell same as always - greatly influenced by the economy and the pixie dust of a visit to WDW.

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

I wonder if all these "doom and gloom" projections for Riviera resale aren't premature. If the resort turns out to be as gorgeous and popular as many believe, contracts will hold their value at least as well as BCV, BWV, and the monorail resorts.

I'd happily buy VGF (and/or BWV, etc.) resale, even if it meant I couldn't stay anywhere else. Doubt I'm the only one.

You are correct. We purchased BCV resale knowing that DVC could restrict us to only staying there and we're absolutely fine with that.

 

[Bearval]

Very interesting idea, that Disney is creating its own resale market where most people won't be willing to compete.

A corollary of that is that most resale buyers won't be interested in competing with Disney, so they will focus more and more on the L14 resales. This would drive down Riviera resale prices even more, because of less interest, and might make L14 resales even more valuable as time goes on, and drive up L14 resales values.

After a few years, when it becomes obvious to everyone that Disney has 'crippled' Riviera, don't you think a lot of potential buyers will take a look at Disney Direct prices and say, "No thanks!"



I think you are probably right in your estimates of Riviera Resale prices. Current resale prices run approximately 55% to 72%, depending on the resort and the size of the contract and the desirability of the property. And they will probably stay in that range. One thing is that I think that people who buy one of the L14 in the resale market today can be pretty confident that, at a minimum, the value of their property is not likely to decrease much, so if or when they go to sell their property down the road, they shouldn't lose much in value. In other words, buy the L14 and you are likely to be able to get your money back, unlike what happens when you buy Direct.

With the increasing rise and use of web information systems, more and more people are going to be looking at Resales and shying away from Direct Sales (a trend which is already happening, but will continue). So, unless Disney can come up with a way to AUGMENT the value of their property - NOT diminish resale value, but find a way to INCREASE Direct value - then they are likely to have a harder and harder time with Direct Sales in the future.

Would it be too idiotic to say that they should work to INCREASE the price of Resales, since the Resales would then be less attractive, comparatively, when high Resale prices are put up against high Direct prices?

DVD won’t have a problem selling direct even with the new rules. Most people buying timeshares don’t think about selling when they are buying. Just look at all the tv commercials at night offering to get people out of timeshares they cannot sell. Do you think all of those people considered the resale value of the timeshare they purchased before they bought? I doubt it because if they did they most likely would not have bought.

DVD did come up with a way to augment the value of buying direct, you get membership extras and the ability to use your points at all the DVC resorts.

 

[LAX]

I wonder if all these "doom and gloom" projections for Riviera resale aren't premature. If the resort turns out to be as gorgeous and popular as many believe, contracts will hold their value at least as well as BCV, BWV, and the monorail resorts.

I'd happily buy VGF (and/or BWV, etc.) resale, even if it meant I couldn't stay anywhere else. Doubt I'm the only one.

I think the issue with purchasing resales at Riviera is not so much as getting "stuck" with staying there all the times. It has more to do with virtually no fall back option and the pressure to book 7-11 months in advance for essentially the remaining of the contract. If a resale owner needs to change vacation plan after 7 months, good luck getting Riviera as the L14 owners would have had their shot at it already, assuming it becomes such a big DVC hit that resale owners would prefer to stay there. IMHO, there is a real risk of losing points on a regular basis. While I am not sure if there will be limitation on exchanging out for non-DVC (non-Disney) options, that's usually more inferior products anyway.

LAX

 

[CarolMN]

I think the issue with purchasing resales at Riviera is not so much as getting "stuck" with staying there all the times. It has more to do with virtually no fall back option and the pressure to book 7-11 months in advance for essentially the remaining of the contract. If a resale owner needs to change vacation plan after 7 months, good luck getting Riviera as the L14 owners would have had their shot at it already, assuming it becomes such a big DVC hit that resale owners would prefer to stay there. IMHO, there is a real risk of losing points on a regular basis. While I am not sure if there will be limitation on exchanging out for non-DVC (non-Disney) options, that's usually more inferior products anyway.

LAX

I see your point, but I do not believe the L14 direct point owners will have unfettered access to the entire Riviera inventory at 7 months. I believe that availability for the L14 will be limited, perhaps through the same type of arrangement that currently exists for the L14 and the "collections". Disney would be foolish to allow the L14 members to book all the rooms at the new in-demand resort and push breakage to SSR, which doesn't command as high a price from the general public.

...

 

[LAX]

I see your point, but I do not believe the L14 direct point owners will have unfettered access to the entire Riviera inventory at 7 months. I believe that availability for the L14 will be limited, perhaps through the same type of arrangement that currently exists for the L14 and the "collections". Disney would be foolish to allow the L14 members to book all the rooms at the new in-demand resort and push breakage to SSR, which doesn't command as high a price from the general public.

...

The "limited" access would be true for direct Riviera owners as well, which means access to L14 for them would be more of a marketing gimmick. As much as VGF owners would prefer to use their points at VGF, there might be occasions where other resorts make more sense. Thus, I can't imagine direct Riviera owners would be happy about being "limited" to their own resort after paying a rather hefty premium to access all DVCs. For the resale owners, at least they know what they are getting into and paying a (perhaps deep) discount in return for that limitation.

LAX

 

[CarolMN]

The "limited" access would be true for direct Riviera owners as well, which means access to L14 for them would be more of a marketing gimmick. As much as VGF owners would prefer to use their points at VGF, there might be occasions where other resorts make more sense. Thus, I can't imagine direct Riviera owners would be happy about being "limited" to their own resort after paying a rather hefty premium to access all DVCs. For the resale owners, at least they know what they are getting into and paying a (perhaps deep) discount in return for that limitation.

LAX

We'll have to agree to disagree - I don't believe Disney would have to limit access to the L14 at 7 months for the Riviera direct buyers. They just have to be sure that there is comparable availability released to the L14 direct buyers to balance the demand from the Riviera buyers. That's different from allowing the L14 owners to "lead the charge". The availability for L14 would depend entirely on the demand from the Riviera owners for the L14 resorts. My bet is Disney can manage that well enough to keep the Riviera buyers satisfied. YMMV.

 

[LAX]

We'll have to agree to disagree - I don't believe Disney would have to limit access to the L14 at 7 months for the Riviera direct buyers. They just have to be sure that there is comparable availability released to the L14 direct buyers to balance the demand from the Riviera buyers. That's different from allowing the L14 owners to "lead the charge". The availability for L14 would depend entirely on the demand from the Riviera owners for the L14 resorts. My bet is Disney can manage that well enough to keep the Riviera buyers satisfied. YMMV.

I don't disagree with your point about DVD trying to allow enough access to Riviera for L14 owners to keep the Riviera direct owners happy. However, this circles back to our original discussion of "leaving Riviera resale owners behind" as whatever 7 month availability is left at Riviera will be quickly scooped up by L14 owners. Hence, I can't see how any Riviera resale owners will be "okay" being stuck with Riviera since this predicament essentially put them at real risk of losing points on a regular basis.

LAX

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

I don't disagree with your point about DVD trying to allow enough access to Riviera for L14 owners to keep the Riviera direct owners happy. However, this circles back to our original discussion of "leaving Riviera resale owners behind" as whatever 7 month availability is left at Riviera will be quickly scooped up by L14 owners. Hence, I can't see how any Riviera resale owners will be "okay" being stuck with Riviera since this predicament essentially put them at real risk of losing points on a regular basis.

LAX

The situation seems so poorly thought through by DVC. How will it work to have everyone in the system booking your home hotel when it is the only hotel you can book (if you are resale)? Yes, you will be severely limited and will have to book right at 11 months. To some extent you will also be competing with Riviera direct sale owners.