I love how everyone talks about apples to apples it's just a cliché now used to excuse an opinion at this point. Based on what people are saying you can never compare anything.
I guess the point is what are we discussing? Are we discussing whether you personally should buy Riviera or whether they will be able to sell out Riviera at an acceptable pace based on all of the attributes?
I am in no way arguing that
you should buy Riviera if it doesn't fit your parameters. I am not even arguing that Riviera will sell at an acceptable pace based on its attributes. I'm just suggesting that because Riviera doesn't fit your specific criteria, doesn't mean that the average DVC buyer won't find value in it.
1) you are assuming the buyer does not already have direct benefits, and you are assuming the buyer is going to go twice a year to actual get some real value out of the direct benefits (the AP is the only benefit worth anything). The cost of riviera skyrockets even higher with the high points chart if you are going twice a year. If you have 4 kids, sure you save money with the AP but you need over 300+ points at Riv to go twice a year for two 7 day trips (which you don't need at many other resale resorts);
1) Blue Card Benefits ≠ Direct Benefits. I gave a list of direct benefits that are not Blue Card Benefits. Again, whether these fit your specific criteria is irrelevant to the discussion. It only matters if the average buyer cares about them.
2) While it will take twice as long to recover the cost, the 51 week rule allows even those families that travel once a year to take advantage of the AP discount.
2) great and it's worth almost nothing if I die in 20 years, lose my job, don't want to go to Disney anymore or am unable, need to move etc etc. If you are planning on getting a ton of value and giving from the age of80-90 then good for you, in the case of Riv that has no tangible value to most people other than resale. I am not personally layering in assumptions about my kids etc 40 years from now when I'm 70 years old. It has some value, I have no idea what that value is, if you look at resale prices, I don't see a clear correlation between contract length and what people are willing to pay, since initial sale many contracts have increased in price in the resale market, so it isn't a huge factor for many people buying resale;
I'm not going to argue this point. I'm not a restrictions apologist. I personally didn't consider Riviera for this exact reason myself. But again, does this affect the average buyer?
3)riviera is not more ideal for going to HS and epcot than BWV or BCV which you can stay at if you buy BLT.
Only for the next 22 years. The next 18 years of your BLT contract will not get you access to anything close to those parks.
4) OK so how does this matter at all to me when I go to pay? It's $2 more I don't care why it's $2 more. So they stay the same for a year then go up 3-4%? As you said, the contract is 50 years long why would I care about 1 year of no increases?
The point I was suggesting is that in two or three years, RIV MF may not look so high compared to the other resorts. Then from that point on, the MF should increase at a similar rate to all the other resorts. So like you said, the high MF really only matters for the first few years.
Of course this is all theoretical and can prove to be untrue.
If you're dying to stay at Riv then yes you have no choice. But again, how can you be dying to stay at Riv every year for your entire life before it's open? I start from very simple assumptions, if you like Riv and want it by all means go ahead and buy it. I do agree you can't throw a blanket over every individual buyers circumstances, but you can provide options for people who don't want/ pay $188 per point and get a very similar (or some might argue better) experience at another resort depending on what you value. With your response you can never compare anything. I personally already have points I can use at Riv, will someone be getting enough owning Riv to pay $50-80 more per point and also have to buy more points than they would basically anywhere else? All you are losing by buying resale is the chance to use points at Riv and as I stated, there are other options location wise that are better. Sure it isn't an exact comparison but nothing ever is
See the bolded part. This is not true. By buying resale, you are also losing the option of staying at Reflections, the new
Disneyland DVC, and anything else they decide to build over the next 40 years, which could include new revamped BCV and BWV in 2043.
For me the location is a huge negative when looking at the price; I can buy BLT for $130-150 per point depending on the variables with a cheaper/comparable point chart, way cheaper MF and can walk to MK in 3 minutes. How will they convince me to part with much more money to buy at Riv? I don't know how they can but while the resale restrictions are in place I'll never even consider buying there regardless of how nice it is
I'm not saying that you can't compare BLT resale to RIV direct. But your post above suggesting that RIV really shouldn't be considered because you can buy BLT for much less is disregarding all of the qualitative differences between the two contracts, and only factoring in some of the quantitative measures. Its cherry picking RIV's weaknesses to prove a point without factoring in it's pros.