Best guesses as to what the rental market will be like when WDW reopens?

Punkrockbebop

Mouseketeer
Joined
May 6, 2017
Just curious what people’s thoughts are on what the DVC rental market will look like for the next couple years? Both from a owner and renter’s perspective. Of course, we can’t know, but just wanted to hear some thoughts on it.
 

JETSDAD

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jan 7, 2016
From what I'm seeing on a FB rental group there seems to still be plenty of demand for rentals. Renters are just being more careful with regards to cancellation/reschedule policies and trying to rent points that aren't nearing expiration.
 
  • CastAStone

    Model Citizen. Math and business nerd.
    Joined
    Jun 25, 2019
    I think there is gonna be a crazy crunch on availability, and that’s going to pretty badly screw up the rental market. Things that were gettable at 7 months will be gone by 9 AM at 11 months. Professional renters may wind up selling rather than risk getting stuck with points.

    Very interested to hear what others think
     

    JETSDAD

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jan 7, 2016
    I think there is gonna be a crazy crunch on availability, and that’s going to pretty badly screw up the rental market. Things that were gettable at 7 months will be gone by 9 AM at 11 months. Professional renters may wind up selling rather than risk getting stuck with points.

    Very interested to hear what others think
    I think the professional renters will be just fine...it could affect the one off type of renter who may not play the system quite as much and only decides to rent later on in their UY. The pros are the ones that always seem to have the hard to get reservations so worst case scenario they can just grab a different booking category (though they will still probably get the ones they want).
     

    Marionnette

    Children see magic because they look for it
    Joined
    Sep 26, 2009
    I think that there will be more points than there will be units available to book before those points expire. Anyone who rents is going to find it tougher to get a studio anywhere for the next few years until the points balance out. There will also be fewer owners going thru the brokers to rent their points.

    I think there will be an uptick in point transfers among owners, given the borrowing restrictions that have been put in place.
     

    RoseGold

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Jan 21, 2020
    I'm worried this will impact the long term rental demand. I always assumed worst case scenario I would just be able to rent out points, as an owner seems pretty risk free. But Disney really messed over owners in this case. The worst case scenario was worse than I thought.
     

    _auroraborealis_

    I like marshmallows. And adult beverages.
    Joined
    Oct 18, 2015
    To date, it seems lots of renters are ok with vouchers on the cancels, and many who are looking at "saving so much money!" are pointing at the vouchers as the agencies making things right. I think the actual execution of if people holding vouchers get FIFO rental with the agencies (over new reenters bringing cash in hand), and if they can get rentals that they are okay with (BCV in May becoming Saratoga in mid-January is not something many feel to be an equal trade).

    The agencies are deleting negative feedback anywhere they have the delete button, but if things sour they can't delete it everywhere.
     

    Punkrockbebop

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    May 6, 2017
    To date, it seems lots of renters are ok with vouchers on the cancels, and many who are looking at "saving so much money!" are pointing at the vouchers as the agencies making things right. I think the actual execution of if people holding vouchers get FIFO rental with the agencies (over new reenters bringing cash in hand), and if they can get rentals that they are okay with (BCV in May becoming Saratoga in mid-January is not something many feel to be an equal trade).

    The agencies are deleting negative feedback anywhere they have the delete button, but if things sour they can't delete it everywhere.

    Sorry, this is like a foreign language to me as I’ve never rented points and have no idea what you are talking about. Do you mind explaining this to me?
     

    _auroraborealis_

    I like marshmallows. And adult beverages.
    Joined
    Oct 18, 2015
    Sorry, this is like a foreign language to me as I’ve never rented points and have no idea what you are talking about. Do you mind explaining this to me?
    Renters who have been holding bookings during Disney's closure are being given vouchers to use for a future stay by at least two of the major rental agencies.

    One, David's, has paid 70% of what the DVC owner is owed for the original booking to that owner already. (It's closer to 54% of what the renter paid), and asked owners to either rebook for another renter with that 70% payment, or to refund to David. It is mixed on what owners are doing.

    Because of cashflow, it is highly likely brokers prioritize new guests over booking guests holding vouchers. Because of point issues, DVC availability as a whole is going to be a hot mess for 2-3 years. So many voucher holders are going to run into issues rebooking and getting something they want (dates/unit). The agency is likely to have ongoing cashflow issues that involve ponzi scheming with new renters vs. vouchers.

    And another closure could be a real complicating factor.

    Most renters have no idea how the sausage is made. Right now, it is pretty ugly.
     

    Brianstl

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Sep 8, 2019
    I don’t think the demand is going to be reduced and supply is going to be high. I think demand is going to be hurt by the refund fiasco. A high percentage of DVC owners are elderly. Until there is a vaccine or a better proven therapeutic, the recommendations from medical professionals will be for them to avoid air travel and avoid places like WDW. Many of those owners will follow those recommendations and try to rent their points to get something out of them.
     

    MinnieSueB

    Earning My Ears
    Joined
    Mar 28, 2020
    A lot of burned owners won't be using a broker any more. Especially with the revised contracts which can burn the owner even more.
    I was a renter that was burned by a couple of these brokers for a couple of stays - one we had in May that they gave us a voucher & one we have in July that we have been told if DW is not open they will only refund 60% of what we paid. :( That's why we now have a resale contract & waiting on ROFR
     

    macman123

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Mar 12, 2020
    From what I'm seeing on a FB rental group there seems to still be plenty of demand for rentals. Renters are just being more careful with regards to cancellation/reschedule policies and trying to rent points that aren't nearing expiration.
    Whats the link for that?
     

    Marionnette

    Children see magic because they look for it
    Joined
    Sep 26, 2009
    From what I'm seeing on a FB rental group there seems to still be plenty of demand for rentals. Renters are just being more careful with regards to cancellation/reschedule policies and trying to rent points that aren't nearing expiration.
    I must be in the wrong groups because I'm seeing very little interest in renting for the near future. There are a couple of scavengers who want the low price of distressed points but also a full refund guarantee if the parks are closed. And then there are a few looking to rent for the 50th anniversary in October 2021. Definitely not the the usual “hey, we want an AKV Value studio for Christmas” posts that usually crop up at the 7-month mark.

    I’m not sure whether it’s the economy, the uncertainty of how Disney will be when it reopens or gun shy renters who were scared away by how rental cancellations were handled, but there’s definitely been a lull in ISO posts as well as posts of points for rent.
     

    _auroraborealis_

    I like marshmallows. And adult beverages.
    Joined
    Oct 18, 2015
    I am still seeing some "you can stay at a deluxe by renting points!" stuff some places, but a LOT of people are chiming in recommending cash bookings instead because the savings are too risky right now.
     

    rachaelg

    Earning My Ears
    Joined
    Nov 3, 2019
    I was a renter that was burned by a couple of these brokers for a couple of stays - one we had in May that they gave us a voucher & one we have in July that we have been told if DW is not open they will only refund 60% of what we paid. :( That's why we now have a resale contract & waiting on ROFR
    I'm a renter, but didn't have anything booked until January 2021...hoping its all worked out by then, but this whole fiasco inspired me to become an owner as well...come on ROFR!
     

    ocdb8r1

    Earning My Ears
    Joined
    Dec 20, 2010
    I am watching this space very closely (with popcorn in hand). What happens with these major brokers could have a very interesting impact on overall availability, the rental market and the resale market.

    I am personally surprised David's has been able to continue to operate. While the various posts seem to indicate they've somehow been able to hold on to quite a bit of cash to keep them afloat (many owners working with them and/or accepting whatever cash they got for cancelled/postponed reservations and many renters accepting vouchers), but at some point there will be all kinds of pressure when the brokers need to reconcile things. Availability is going to be in limited supply, some owners are certainly going to give up on the brokers and renters will eventually tire of waiting for a time when they can actually vacation (either due to continued reduced capacity constraints or due to lack of ability to get a future reservation). The only way I can see David's and other brokers surviving is kicking in a big was of cash to cover the shortfall....and I don't see it happening. If the big brokers crash, you'll see a lot of contracts appear for resale and there may be some availability relief.

    As for the rental market itself, I think it will dip a bit, but once Disney is back up and running...the market will be fairly close behind. I think there's a risk of some permanent reduction in what one can get renting points (if the brokers disappear, that's a big piece of stable price support gone). However, it's clear there's been healthy competition in rentals and as such the current price isn't likely far of market...what Disney does to direct rates is likely to have the greatest impact.
     

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