Cases rising or dropping by you?

Christine

DIS Veteran
Joined
Aug 31, 1999
Our cases are rising in Virginia due to a real push for testing, but our positivity rate is stable and it seems our hospitalizations and deaths are going down so that's a good thing. We are still dipping our toe into Phase 1 and some of the hardest hit areas still aren't allowed to do Phase 1, so it will be interesting to see if anything changes when that happens. I do hope we are seeing some good signs due to nicer weather (heat and sun) and people not clustering so much indoors.
 

Wendy31

DIS Veteran
Joined
Mar 5, 2005
It’s rising.

The news just reported that our county currently has the highest number of Covid patients in ICU since the pandemic began.

Our county mayor insists though that it’s not due to opening things back up but, rather, due to people who have been working bringing the virus home to their families.
 
  • RangerPooh

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Aug 6, 2005
    Earlier today I posted that our county had 29 new cases yesterday. Today's count jumped to 49 newly confirmed cases!

    Yet we can now congregate in groups of up to 50, instead of the previous 10 or less limit. :sad2:
     

    godisney14

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Aug 3, 2019
    With more places relaxing restrictions, I’m not sure what kind of question the OP meant. It’s just simple logic that the more people are moving around, the greater the number of cases will grow.

    Even in Northern CA, where restrictions have been strict until very recently, I guarantee the cases will trend upward soon. When I went to Costco and Home Depot yesterday, you would be mistaken that there ever was a pandemic. Places that are open for business look just like they did before this whole situation. Decided to not get packed into the crowd, and just went back near closing time.
     
  • mnrose

    Queen of all she surveys
    Joined
    Jun 18, 2009
    New cases seem to be falling. Fatalities and hospitalizations still way too high. But, perhaps there's hope.
     

    disneychrista

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Dec 26, 2002
    Still raising. We just had a large jump tied to previous ID'd cases from a Mothers Day gathering.

    Our county is also ramping up testing next week, so I expect to see a steady increase in cases for the foreseeable future.
     

    DisneyOma

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jul 27, 2015
    The AJC newspaper does not believe the Georgia Department of Public Health is presenting the numbers in the most pessimistic way so they recalculate the numbers and provide their own chart. Despite being open for over 3 weeks, the trend is downward.
    View attachment 495502

    Same data as presented by the Georgia DOH.
    View attachment 495503


    The Rt number has been hovering around 1 since April 11th, again despite being open.
    View attachment 495501
    Your confirmation bias is showing - you may want to rethink this?

    NH has increased testing, so cases are still increasing, but the percent of positive tests has decreased significantly. We have started reopening, but the process is painfully slow because our neighbor state has significantly more cases, and its residents have been proving that they are having difficulty with the "stay home" part of the stay at home order.
    MA border towns have been going to NH border towns throughout this pandemic. Half the workers at the local Market Basket in NH live in MA. Some MA residents work up in the shipyard as well, so get all the way to ME each day. MA has been in NH the whole time., at least on the eastern coast. Also, there have been plenty of NH and ME plates zipping up and down I95 in MA. The eastern coastline of MA, NH, and ME act more like one state than three.
     

    kdonnel

    DVC-BCV
    Joined
    Feb 1, 2001
    Your confirmation bias is showing - you may want to rethink this?
    How is stating that both the Department of Healths chart and the AJCs chart both show a downward trend confirmation bias?

    Today the DOH chart is trending up while the AJC is still trending down. What sort of bias am I displaying now?
     
  • disneychrista

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Dec 26, 2002
    California as a whole is doing well
    That is because the largest cities that were hardest hit early are seeing a decline while the more rural areas (like mine) are just now seeing increases in cases. I think in larger states you can't go by state numbers as a guide for how things are going in your area. You have to look to county numbers.
     

    DisneyJamieCA

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jun 21, 2007
    That is because the largest cities that were hardest hit early are seeing a decline while the more rural areas (like mine) are just now seeing increases in cases. I think in larger states you can't go by state numbers as a guide for how things are going in your area. You have to look to county numbers.
    yes, I already posted about that. Our numbers are great and we still have super strict restrictions.
     

    jlmarr

    See you at Fenton's
    Joined
    Dec 10, 2003
    California as a whole is doing well.
    Orange County is trending up (i.e. not doing well), although I look more at hospitalizations, # ICU cases, and deaths, rather than cases. We had our largest daily count of deaths on Wednesday (10), and then topped that on Thursday (14). The county supervisors are gung ho to reopen though. I'm not anxious to go back to any indoor shopping mall, or even Disneyland, for that matter.
     

    fortwildernessishome

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Dec 11, 2010
    Going up in NH.

    For me personally, I don't pay much attention to the daily numbers of new cases. We are testing much more, so it only makes sense that the number of cases are going to keep climbing.

    What I pay attention to is the number of deaths. On April 30th we had 72 deaths. Today, roughly three weeks later we have 204 deaths. So, 72 deaths over roughly 8 weeks and 132 deaths in three weeks. So definitely going up. We are slowly starting to re-open so it will be interesting to see what happens.
     

    java

    <font color=darkorchid>I am embracing the Turkey B
    Joined
    Jan 18, 2005
    Our county just saw a big jump in cases. I’m guessing due to more available testing and Mother’s Day. We are still on lockdown but things are slowly being lifted. Groups of 25 can now be outside together. For such small numbers in my county, I personally know 3 people that have died.
     

    mousefan73

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    May 9, 2012
    We need to focus on 7 day moving averages. Weekends and holidays numbers are often not reported as day of but bundled on other days in many cities and counties. This week I have been eying as we opened a lot beginning of May but Thursday was a holiday and now weekend. I figure next week we see more. I wish hospitslization and ICU rates and %positive from testing were easier to find than absolute cases.
     

    lifesavacation

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jan 24, 2016
    My county looks really good. Less than 10 cases per 100,000 over a 14 day period. We were approved to apply for phase 2, which allows for some businesses to open with restrictions :)
     





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