Cheapest DVC property per point? Look at annual fees

[dvcdream4fld]

Another point is comparing the cash rack room rate for a dvc accommodation vs the cost for points. I didn't do the math, but maybe the GF point values match the cash rates for the room. My guess is probably true for other popular resorts. I would bet disney did that on purpose.

 

[crisi]

Is there something I've missed regarding this? What is the reason that the fees here are likely to increase more than the rest?

Historically, new resorts have a few years where they have a honeymoon period in terms of dues. There are possibly a few reasons for this. A new resort will have fewer maintenance issues, for instance. Where DVD still owns part of the resort, they can sell those rooms to CRO and that can offset some of the cost of dues - and a new resort is more likely to be popular and less likely to have those rooms empty. Another suspected reason is that many of the costs of the resort are estimated the first few years - they don't really know how much electricity the resort will use, so they estimate it. During the sales period, its in the interest of DVD to keep dues as low as possible - that makes sale more attractive - so where they are faced with an estimation, they seem to estimate low.

After a few years there tends to be a fairly large jump in dues - to put the resort more in line with the other resorts.

However, point values also really play into this. Looking at dues per point isn't that useful if the points you need to spend for a night are that much higher - which is what happened at BLT. An OKW studio can be had for as little as 10 points a night - at $5.54 in dues - that's $55.40 for that night. A BLT studio is only $4.78 in dues, but a standard view room - if you can get one - is 14 points a night - $66.92 a night. Grand Floridian is $5.41 a night - and the cheapest studio you can get there is 17 points - $91.97. If VGF goes through its post sales dues price increase, as most resorts have, it will be a very expensive resort all the way around.

If you really want to get the cheapest DVC going, buy SSR points - at $4.91 in dues and low resale costs, and book your rooms at OKW for 10 a night - two points less per night than SSR. If you could get BLT points for really cheap, and wanted to bet that the dues cost will continue to remain low due to the much higher point structure for booking rooms (not a bad bet), that would be a better deal, but I'd guess that the purchase price difference, when time value of money is figured it, would negate any saving at current resale prices - although you'd possibly make it up on the back end when you sold. But if you are doing that, you don't buy BLT to stay at BLT, you buy BLT to stay at OKW with BLT dues.

 

[Dean]

@Dean
Totally agree. I dodged the math of time value of money because people use their money so differently and invest very differently, and my math has limits.

Also, I'm at BLT and I have a hope that the fees will stay low but the reality is no one knows. Which means that the majority cost of membership is unpredictable.

@djohn
I go through this math when I'm thinking about padding my BLT membership and I want "just points" for the sake of having points. Not thinking about 11 vs 7 month windows and all that.

So going backwards from I want to be able to have a 1 BR suite for 7 days at dream season that I can book 11 months out, then the calculation I think would be different. I'd have to work that out. That's a good way of thinking about it.

There are many variables and ways to look at these issues, I do believe the real math is important partly because I feel that it's foolish for one to buy in to DVC if the math doesn't work.

Dean and I constantly disagree on the time value of money calculation. What he's really asking for is an opportunity cost calculation. If you assume that the future rate of return matches the rate at which maintenance fees, then your figures are already discounted to the net present value of all future maintenance fees. Likewise, as the value of a point increases, commensurately with the price of on-site lodging, then your calculated price per point also reflects the net present value of all future points. Therefore, I completely agree with your ranking.

I think the issue lies between the 2 but closer to the TMV because I believe it is, or should be, money that's actually invested one is pulling out rather than a potential investment, however, at the end of the day it doesn't matter. I think both principles are at work here. The bottom line is there is a real cost to committing dollars up front and/or to financing. It's not a simple calculation if one takes into account that a portion of the dollars would be drained with each vacation though as I believe is the correct approach in this situation for resale purchases. The points were that committing less money up front would broaden the gap between the resorts based on purchase and that compounding the MF would do the same on that list. SSR is the only resort that's both low cost and low fees plus it's basic resort structure favor continued low fees.

Is there something I've missed regarding this? What is the reason that the fees here are likely to increase more than the rest?

Many have felt that the initial fees for BLT were purposefully underpriced and that has proven to be accurate in that they have increased faster than the average. I feel they will cont to do so for a few more years but remain on the lower side comparatively. Many bought in retail convincing themselves the lower fees would more than make up for the higher buy in cost. I didn't think that true at the time nor do I now but would agree the fees should continue to be on the lower side and will add some benefit & insulation, just not to the degree some hope for. Basically replay for VGF other than they are starting out high and will go higher and with the small size of the resort, there is little protection long term. I expect them to be the highest long term over BWV, VB & AKV but time will tell.

ETA: The points structure will cover the differences in value based on DVD's judgement of those differences. That's why VGF will be more points than say OKW or SSR. Some of these differences can be reduced by specialty options like BWV standard, AKV value, etc but ONLY if used for those items consistently.

 

[sndral]

Is there something I've missed regarding this? What is the reason that the fees here are likely to increase more than the rest?

The cynical answer to this is that Jim Lewis and crew were in charge of estimating the MFs for BLT when it opened and they underestimated MFs to drive sales just like they did in 2011 w/ Aulani when their 33% under estimate of initial MFs caused them to be fired.
Low MFs helps drive sales, once you've finished selling you can ease MFs up to where they should have been set to begin with. Not saying this is what happened - but it is a pattern from the Lewis era.

 

[dundey]

Hey Josh - thanks for the post!
I did this math in my head before I decided to but BLT resale. It was a no brainer as far as I'm concerned, since it has a longer right of use period to SSR and has a far better location.
Having said that, we also have some Boardwalk points, just because we like it there!

 

[DougEMG]

djohn06 brings up a point that I've been pondering for a while. Not all point charts are created equal and as another poster wrote GF is more expensive but when you factor in the fact that you also require more points per reservation in order to stay there the price is actually quite high on it. Due to the varying point values of the resorts and of course the varying point values of seasons its very difficult to exactly determine the difference between the varying resorts. But I used JoshUY's cost per point and applied it to a typical expensive week (Mid July) to determine the point cost for a 1 week reservation. When you do that you get a slightly different order of affordability (using a studio like djohn06 did, however, with only a few variations this order applied across all the room categories except the Grand Villas)

AKL
SSR
OKW
BWV
BLT
HHI
WL
VB
BCV
Aulani
GF
GC

For AKV are you assuming value room point cost? Give that there are only 6? Value rooms it is not reasonable to assume that a AKV owner will be able to get a value room. So I think they should be lower in the rankings.

 

[djohn06]

For AKV are you assuming value room point cost? Give that there are only 6? Value rooms it is not reasonable to assume that a AKV owner will be able to get a value room. So I think they should be lower in the rankings.

I think there are only 5 or 6 concierge rooms. I believe there are 20 2 bedroom lock offs. I could be wrong, but, I was pretty sure it was higher than 6.

 

[crisi]

The cynical answer to this is that Jim Lewis and crew were in charge of estimating the MFs for BLT when it opened and they underestimated MFs to drive sales just like they did in 2011 w/ Aulani when their 33% under estimate of initial MFs caused them to be fired.
Low MFs helps drive sales, once you've finished selling you can ease MFs up to where they should have been set to begin with. Not saying this is what happened - but it is a pattern from the Lewis era.

The pattern predates Lewis. Its pretty much been the case that estimated dues have always been on the low side and there are a few years of above average adjustments after sales finish. Sometimes they are barely a blip, sometimes they are Aulani and get people fired.

 

[disneynutz]

I still think it's interesting that Disney set up themselves as a property tax entity and that DVC owners and Disney pay taxes to Disney.

Bill

 

[WebmasterDoc]

.....

Remember though that these are 50 year contracts. So the total cost of ownership includes
Initial cost plus yearly fees x 50 years.

.....

At this time, VB, HH, BWV, VWL, BCV and about 2/3 of OKW contracts all expire on 1/31/2042 - so they have 27 more years of use.

SSR expires 1/31/54, AKV (and about 1/3 of OKW) expires 1/31/57, BLT and GCV expire 1/31/60, ARS expires 1/31/61 and VGF expires 1/31/64.

None of the resorts now in existence have 50 years of ownership remaining.

 

[chalee94]

I think there are only 5 or 6 concierge rooms. I believe there are 20 2 bedroom lock offs. I could be wrong, but, I was pretty sure it was higher than 6.

there are 5 concierge 2BR lockoffs.

to add to the unsure confusion, i think there are something like 10-12 2BR value lockoffs with another handful of dedicated value studios. i'm pretty sure that there are a maximum of 18 value studios but the details are blurry...at any point, i agree that it's probably better to base AKV calculations on standard view villas (if that is really what you would prefer to book) rather than value villas.

 

[dsnydaddy]

For AKV are you assuming value room point cost? Give that there are only 6? Value rooms it is not reasonable to assume that a AKV owner will be able to get a value room. So I think they should be lower in the rankings.

That's a good point, I didn't know that there were so few. I need to adjust my calculations

 

[dsnydaddy]

So, Since revising and leaving out the AKV value rooms, my order looks more like this:

SSR
OKW
AKV
BWV
BLT
HHI
VWL
VB
BCV
Aulani
GF
GC

The things that I learned from this exercise is that while I was initially drawn to BCV, I'm ultimately glad that I did not buy there. Ranking only just above the Aulani in cost is a lot for that resort. That and the fact that I did not realize until doing this that BCV did not have Grand Villas. I don't know that I'll ever stay in one but they'd be nice to have if I invited extended family. Another lesson is that my initial impressions were correct, the newest resorts are very high priced when adding in all the factors. I was also thinking of buying GC because I live in CA but looking now at it sitting solidly at the bottom I realize that I would have been unhappy with the cost. I ultimately went with SSR and I'm fairly happy with that choice. The cost to benefit ratio is squarely in my favor there.

I had also considered BLT since I really like it and think that being close to the parks would have been very nice, the point cost for the rooms makes it more expensive (although nowhere near what the GF is)

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

For AKV are you assuming value room point cost? Give that there are only 6? Value rooms it is not reasonable to assume that a AKV owner will be able to get a value room. So I think they should be lower in the rankings.

There are 28 possible value rooms at Jambo. 10 - 2 bedroom lockoffs and 8 dedicated studios. I think your confusing with the most expensive concierge rooms where it's 5 - 2 bedroom lockoffs so possible 10 total rooms.

But it's not great to count on the value rooms at AKV nor the standard rooms at BLT in an analysis IMO because of the small percentage at their respective resorts.

 

[disneynutz]

So, Since revising and leaving out the AKV value rooms, my order looks more like this:

SSR
OKW
AKV
BWV
BLT
HHI
VWL
VB
BCV
Aulani
GF
GC

The things that I learned from this exercise is that while I was initially drawn to BCV, I'm ultimately glad that I did not buy there. Ranking only just above the Aulani in cost is a lot for that resort. That and the fact that I did not realize until doing this that BCV did not have Grand Villas. I don't know that I'll ever stay in one but they'd be nice to have if I invited extended family. Another lesson is that my initial impressions were correct, the newest resorts are very high priced when adding in all the factors. I was also thinking of buying GC because I live in CA but looking now at it sitting solidly at the bottom I realize that I would have been unhappy with the cost. I ultimately went with SSR and I'm fairly happy with that choice. The cost to benefit ratio is squarely in my favor there.

I had also considered BLT since I really like it and think that being close to the parks would have been very nice, the point cost for the rooms makes it more expensive (although nowhere near what the GF is)

I really hope that you post back after spending some vacation time at all of the resorts. It will be interesting to see if the resort amenities, feel, location, views, changes your mindset.

Buying a WDW resort makes sense to me because that is where you get your biggest bang for your buck, more things to do, more to see.

Bill

 

[dsnydaddy]

I really hope that you post back after spending some vacation time at all of the resorts. It will be interesting to see if the resort amenities, feel, location, views, changes your mindset.

Buying a WDW resort makes sense to me because that is where you get your biggest bang for your buck, more things to do, more to see.

Bill

We actually did tour all of the DVC resort on our last trip. It was part of my decision process.

I liked BLT. It ranked high on my list and I almost bought there when it was new. Don't like the pool much. the point values for the rooms were a bit high and I could see that without even doing the math.

GF was very nice but just not our style. (too ritzy)

I like Poly but don't want to pay those prices,

VWL is very nice and was on my short list.

OKW was also on the list, but my wife HATES the bathrooms.

BCV was favored by us. It was somewhat pricey, loved the pool. it too was high on our list. of course in hindsight I'm glad that we didn't. With the large extended family that my wife has, we might someday avail ourselves of a Grand Villa and BCV doesn't have that.

Actually do like BWV and I love the location but hate the pool. Clowns are creepy to me.

We've stayed at AKV and didn't much like it. And our kids were not as impressed with the animals as we were so that was a wash. Pools are great and so is the grounds.

Aulani is heavenly and I may still buy there in the future.

GC is way overpriced and I know the area very well. I can stay in the vicinity with much less money and nearly as nicely.

SSR seemed to be a great fit. we like the area, don't mind the size of the resort. LOVE the treehouses and can't wait to stay there. And can take a boat to our favorite moderate: POR to visit.

 

[disneynutz]

We actually did tour all of the DVC resort on our last trip. It was part of my decision process.

I liked BLT. It ranked high on my list and I almost bought there when it was new. Don't like the pool much. the point values for the rooms were a bit high and I could see that without even doing the math.

GF was very nice but just not our style. (too ritzy)

I like Poly but don't want to pay those prices,

VWL is very nice and was on my short list.

OKW was also on the list, but my wife HATES the bathrooms.

BCV was favored by us. It was somewhat pricey, loved the pool. it too was high on our list. of course in hindsight I'm glad that we didn't. With the large extended family that my wife has, we might someday avail ourselves of a Grand Villa and BCV doesn't have that.

Actually do like BWV and I love the location but hate the pool. Clowns are creepy to me.

We've stayed at AKV and didn't much like it. And our kids were not as impressed with the animals as we were so that was a wash. Pools are great and so is the grounds.

Aulani is heavenly and I may still buy there in the future.

GC is way overpriced and I know the area very well. I can stay in the vicinity with much less money and nearly as nicely.

SSR seemed to be a great fit. we like the area, don't mind the size of the resort. LOVE the treehouses and can't wait to stay there. And can take a boat to our favorite moderate: POR to visit.

You will find probably as we did that living at a resort for a week or more is a bit different than touring. We bought BLT before it opened and it turned out to be our least favorite. We also bought VGF but we toured the site just before it's opening.

Of the 6 resorts that we own, our favorites are BWV as our Epcot/DHS resort and VGF and VWL as our MK resorts.

Bill

 

[DougEMG]

So, Since revising and leaving out the AKV value rooms, my order looks more like this:

SSR
OKW
AKV
BWV
BLT
HHI
VWL
VB
BCV
Aulani
GF
GC

The things that I learned from this exercise is that while I was initially drawn to BCV, I'm ultimately glad that I did not buy there. Ranking only just above the Aulani in cost is a lot for that resort. That and the fact that I did not realize until doing this that BCV did not have Grand Villas. I don't know that I'll ever stay in one but they'd be nice to have if I invited extended family. Another lesson is that my initial impressions were correct, the newest resorts are very high priced when adding in all the factors. I was also thinking of buying GC because I live in CA but looking now at it sitting solidly at the bottom I realize that I would have been unhappy with the cost. I ultimately went with SSR and I'm fairly happy with that choice. The cost to benefit ratio is squarely in my favor there.

I had also considered BLT since I really like it and think that being close to the parks would have been very nice, the point cost for the rooms makes it more expensive (although nowhere near what the GF is)

As a confirmed frugal person, my analysis lead me to buy SSR followed by OKW. BWV I ended up with because I got a great deal resale, love the location and love the standard room points.

I probably place a higher value on up front costs, so don't consider AKV that could a deal given its purchase price, MF, point cost and ease of getting a room their at 7 months.

 

[newfangled]

VWL is very nice and was on my short list.

Actually do like BWV and I love the location but hate the pool. Clowns are creepy to me.

Our thought process was similar...especially with these two points. We did end up deciding on VWL...we're just in love with that place.

In the future we would like something near Epcot as well. I'm thinking BCV purely because of the creepy clown factor at BWV.

We do think we will want a grand villa as some point in our lives (this will be rare), so would have to chance getting one at the 7 month mark...we won't be too picky about where.

Hmmmm ....Anyone know where Grand Villas are available typically at 7 months?????
(let's just assume it's in a slower vacation season for the sake of argument - not Summer, Spring Break or Christmas)

 

[lovin'fl]

So, Since revising and leaving out the AKV value rooms, my order looks more like this:

SSR
OKW
AKV
BWV
BLT
HHI
VWL
VB
BCV
Aulani
GF
GC

The things that I learned from this exercise is that while I was initially drawn to BCV, I'm ultimately glad that I did not buy there. Ranking only just above the Aulani in cost is a lot for that resort. That and the fact that I did not realize until doing this that BCV did not have Grand Villas. I don't know that I'll ever stay in one but they'd be nice to have if I invited extended family. Another lesson is that my initial impressions were correct, the newest resorts are very high priced when adding in all the factors. I was also thinking of buying GC because I live in CA but looking now at it sitting solidly at the bottom I realize that I would have been unhappy with the cost. I ultimately went with SSR and I'm fairly happy with that choice. The cost to benefit ratio is squarely in my favor there.

I had also considered BLT since I really like it and think that being close to the parks would have been very nice, the point cost for the rooms makes it more expensive (although nowhere near what the GF is)

Except for SSR, which I will never own as it's the easiest resort to book, I seem to be buying down this list...I own OKW, AKV, BWV and HHI. And would like to, though DH needs to get on board, add BLT or VWL. Looks like I should add BLT and that would be good for me but DH is in with VWL.

OKW, AKV and BWV are good for us because of the low point cost rooms...so our points go farther. We also love BWV for location and AKV for theme. OKW is now at the bottom of our list when deciding what resort to stay at, so I actually wouldn't mind selling it to buy the BLT or VWL...but we can just try to book those at 7 months out I suppose.

Anyway...I liked reading this thread to see all the calculations. Good info!