Do you agree with the 50-100 day window for best airfares?

mrsgthatsme

Mouseketeer
Joined
Mar 21, 2011
While I realize that there is no scientific way to totally predict when the best time to buy airline tickets is, I have heard many say that the 50-100 days prior to travel window tends to be the "sweet spot." We are about 115 days out right now, and I have been watching airfares daily for four months. They are still so high for our trip at the end of April (after Spring break and long after Easter.) I am a very infrequent flyer, so I am not sure what to expect. Trying to be hopeful that things will drop as we head into that window, but curious as to the experiences of some of those on the board who travel more and are more knowledgeable about general trends. Thanks!
 
You may want to check out Hopper. It’s an iOS (and I assume there’s an Android version). It tracks fares for you and uses predictive analytics to suggest when is the best time to buy. I am watching a fare now for an MCO trip. Hopper thinks it will dip down by another $40.
 


OP, this is what I posted in a thread about best prices on SW several months ago.

" I have an idea of a reasonable price from our airport. When I see a price & time I like, I book it. We have 2 trips coming up, 1 in mid December & 1 in early May. I did not like the times or prices with JetBlue, so I waited for SW. I was not able to book as soon as flights were released for December. I know I can usually get flights from $80-130 each way. The price was over 200 by the time I got home that day, so I waited. I kept checking & eventually the flight to Orlando dropped to $86 in mid July so we booked. There were only a few seats at that price & after we booked they went up to $125. If I had not seen it & booked right away, we would have missed that price. The way home was still close to $300 at that point, so I only booked one way. That one finally dropped to $109 last week (about 6 weeks later) & I booked it. There is another flight that day that is $86, but I don't like the time as much. So I booked those flights 5 months & 3.5 months out & I'm very happy with my prices.

For the trip in May, the flights opened last Monday. I was booking my flights on points & paying for my husband's flights. My round trip was about 10500 points. For my husband, the way down was $86 & the return flight was 109. So I booked both of us immediately. So those flights are about 9 months out.

We were also at Disney this past May. I did not book on opening day but panicked in Feb when prices jumped & some WGA fares showed as unavailable. I booked our flight home at 292, even tho I knew that was way too much. But I panicked. That flight eventually went down to $79 about 3 weeks later. So that was in March for a trip in May. Thankfully, SW still gives a credit. So I really learned to know the market price & wait for it.

From my experience so far this year, I have booked with very good prices 2 months ahead, 3.5 months ahead, 5 months ahead & 9 months ahead. There really seems to be no magic date to book on. I really think you have to know what price range you should expect to pay, be consistent with watching for that price & book as soon as you see a price in that range. It is nerve wracking but worth it!"

All that to say, there seems to be no rhyme or reason to the drops. I have gotten price drops on Thursday mornings the last few times (and both were at 9 - 10 am , not 6 am either) even tho you read that prices drop on Tuesdays & middle of the night. That hasn't been my experience. You just have to know a good price & book it when you see it. If you will travel again within a year, keep looking so you can get credits."

Sorry, it's a long post, but it shows that I have gotten great prices at all different times. So no, i don't necessarily but the 50 - 100 day timeframe.
 
OP, this is what I posted in a thread about best prices on SW several months ago.

" I have an idea of a reasonable price from our airport. When I see a price & time I like, I book it. We have 2 trips coming up, 1 in mid December & 1 in early May. I did not like the times or prices with JetBlue, so I waited for SW. I was not able to book as soon as flights were released for December. I know I can usually get flights from $80-130 each way. The price was over 200 by the time I got home that day, so I waited. I kept checking & eventually the flight to Orlando dropped to $86 in mid July so we booked. There were only a few seats at that price & after we booked they went up to $125. If I had not seen it & booked right away, we would have missed that price. The way home was still close to $300 at that point, so I only booked one way. That one finally dropped to $109 last week (about 6 weeks later) & I booked it. There is another flight that day that is $86, but I don't like the time as much. So I booked those flights 5 months & 3.5 months out & I'm very happy with my prices.

For the trip in May, the flights opened last Monday. I was booking my flights on points & paying for my husband's flights. My round trip was about 10500 points. For my husband, the way down was $86 & the return flight was 109. So I booked both of us immediately. So those flights are about 9 months out.

We were also at Disney this past May. I did not book on opening day but panicked in Feb when prices jumped & some WGA fares showed as unavailable. I booked our flight home at 292, even tho I knew that was way too much. But I panicked. That flight eventually went down to $79 about 3 weeks later. So that was in March for a trip in May. Thankfully, SW still gives a credit. So I really learned to know the market price & wait for it.

From my experience so far this year, I have booked with very good prices 2 months ahead, 3.5 months ahead, 5 months ahead & 9 months ahead. There really seems to be no magic date to book on. I really think you have to know what price range you should expect to pay, be consistent with watching for that price & book as soon as you see a price in that range. It is nerve wracking but worth it!"

All that to say, there seems to be no rhyme or reason to the drops. I have gotten price drops on Thursday mornings the last few times (and both were at 9 - 10 am , not 6 am either) even tho you read that prices drop on Tuesdays & middle of the night. That hasn't been my experience. You just have to know a good price & book it when you see it. If you will travel again within a year, keep looking so you can get credits."

Sorry, it's a long post, but it shows that I have gotten great prices at all different times. So no, i don't necessarily but the 50 - 100 day timeframe.
Thanks so much for the great advice and for sharing your recent experiences. That is very helpful! I think my biggest problem is that I really have no idea what a “good” price is for my route due to the fact that I rarely travel by plane! :)
 
I agree it depends on the airline and the route. When I book with SW I always use points so it doesn't matter, I book and rebook if the price drops. With other airlines/destinations, I try to book at least 3 months out for my own sanity. The Kayak website I think tracks trends and predicts if the price will go up or down. My DH has used it for some of his travel. Jetblue had a fare sale last week and I got fares of $64 each way from PIT to Boston, 2 weeks ahead of my travel, but that was a last minute decision to go based on low fares. Once I book with a non-SW airline, I don't go back and look at the prices!
 


Depends on the airlines. I have great luck with fares on JetBlue and Southwest, but I try to book the second the fares come out. Generally the prices for tickets I bought always go up. For instance I bought nonstop Mco to Pvd for $90.00 pp and right now its $143.00 pp. I’ve had similar luck with JetBlue. I almost never see the rates any airline offer as their sale. Like I never see Southwest $59.00 fares or Jet Blue $39.00 fares from my airports.
 
I think you're doing the best thing... checking airfares often. Make sure you use your browser's "incognito" or "private" mode. This will block any tracking. There's a theory that airlines (along with other travel sites) will note that you keep checking and up the cost. The incognito/private mode prevents that.

I start checking airfares as soon as I know we're going on a trip. I'll continue to check at least a couple times a week if I'm 6+ months out and then check more often inside 6 months. I do *NOT* believe in a "magic" number of days before the trip to book. Those "magic" numbers are based on an average, which takes into account multiple airlines, multiple destinations, and multiple origins. That doesn't mean it will work for your specific days.
 
I think you're doing the best thing... checking airfares often. Make sure you use your browser's "incognito" or "private" mode. This will block any tracking. There's a theory that airlines (along with other travel sites) will note that you keep checking and up the cost. The incognito/private mode prevents that.

I start checking airfares as soon as I know we're going on a trip. I'll continue to check at least a couple times a week if I'm 6+ months out and then check more often inside 6 months. I do *NOT* believe in a "magic" number of days before the trip to book. Those "magic" numbers are based on an average, which takes into account multiple airlines, multiple destinations, and multiple origins. That doesn't mean it will work for your specific days.

Hi. Can you please explain more anout how to do this private mode? Im on Verizon iPhone 6+. I check airfare and hotel prices more often than I carw to admit and do it ALL day. Thank you so much!!
 
Hi. Can you please explain more anout how to do this private mode? Im on Verizon iPhone 6+. I check airfare and hotel prices more often than I carw to admit and do it ALL day. Thank you so much!!
It depends on what browser you use.

Safari: https://www.laptopmag.com/articles/how-to-private-browsing-safari
Chrome: https://support.google.com/chrome/answer/95464?co=GENIE.Platform=iOS&hl=en&oco=1
Firefox: https://support.mozilla.org/en-US/kb/private-browsing-use-firefox-without-history
IE: http://www.thewindowsclub.com/launch-start-private-browsing
 
It definitely varies by airline and possibly even where and when you are flying. Times around the holidays for example only seem to go up. I typically only fly Frontier now and some of the best rates I've booked with them were only 2-3 weeks out.
 
I did a full year's check out of airfares for Delta and United. From Jan. 2017 to Dec 2017 for a future Dec 2018 trip All prices for all seats went up and didn't come down. Best price was in mid of Feb 2017 with Delta main cabin at $331 and United economy at $481 at the 100 day prices were at Delta $681 and United $797. At 50 day mark Delta $760 and United at $800.
This is the same as I did a couple of years ago when I did the same type of tracking.
I did this a full year in advance for reference
 
I did a full year's check out of airfares for Delta and United. From Jan. 2017 to Dec 2017 for a future Dec 2018 trip All prices for all seats went up and didn't come down. Best price was in mid of Feb 2017 with Delta main cabin at $331 and United economy at $481 at the 100 day prices were at Delta $681 and United $797. At 50 day mark Delta $760 and United at $800.
This is the same as I did a couple of years ago when I did the same type of tracking.
I did this a full year in advance for reference
You can’t book a full year out. Tickets open 330 days (11 months) out. So tickets should just now be available for December 2018. :confused3
 
You can’t book a full year out. Tickets open 330 days (11 months) out. So tickets should just now be available for December 2018. :confused3
I am doing it right now Have checked prices for Dec 2018 for Delta and United
 
I think you're doing the best thing... checking airfares often. Make sure you use your browser's "incognito" or "private" mode. This will block any tracking. There's a theory that airlines (along with other travel sites) will note that you keep checking and up the cost. The incognito/private mode prevents that.

I start checking airfares as soon as I know we're going on a trip. I'll continue to check at least a couple times a week if I'm 6+ months out and then check more often inside 6 months. I do *NOT* believe in a "magic" number of days before the trip to book. Those "magic" numbers are based on an average, which takes into account multiple airlines, multiple destinations, and multiple origins. That doesn't mean it will work for your specific days.

I stick with the budget airlines (SWA, spirit, allegient). For years have done the inprivate method but have never noticed any difference. Same with rental cars & hotels. Only when checking cruise rates with 3rd parties do I occasionally see a small difference in price.

Yet, i still do it JIK
 
I'm not so sure this is correct for all airlines or all airports. I booked my April flight SW as soon as the rates opened in August- I was booking for 7 people so by the time i was getting through entering all the info the prices had gone up (within minutes). I am flying BDL to MCO 4/14 and then returning 4/24. I have been watching the same flight usually weekly if not more often. Our direct flight -all levels of pricing w/ SW -has been sold out for a couple of months now. And the prices - well if i didn't book when i did we would be paying about $2500 more for our 7 passengers. Crazy!! Initially I second guessed myself booking right when they became available, but so glad that i did. There are a few other flights ( I think jet blue) which might be slightly cheaper, but with adding in baggage fees the price will be more.

Now we also have a November trip to MCO and knowing that we were going for Nov 2018 I was watching the flights for the week after thanksgiving 2017 pretty close to the trip day - over 14 days out. They seemed to be pretty reasonable (especially compared to what i am paying for April) definitely no more than $250 pp. Where as April is ~$450 when i booked and now the same flights are over $700.

It is amazing that the airline companies are so unpredictable.
 
Just yesterday I booked flights for Princess in February, leaving Seattle on the 21st and going home the 27th. Prices for the 21st were lower than they were the last few months when I checked (though the miles for award travel were the same). Costs for the return trip were higher than I remember, but I could be misremembering. (I take notes and then I lose my notes...) That’s why I’m returning the morning is the 27th instead of the evening of the 26th instead. Way cheaper (using miles), even taking another hotel stay into account.

So...31ish days out was still good for me and the route I’m taking.

And with DH’s business travel
over the years, we’ve found some amazing last minute fares for him. Even for Australia. It’s amazing.
 
I think the 50-100 day concept has gone the way of "WDW is always slow in December" kind of thinking. At one time, it was probably a good start. But we've also noticed that some flights get to a certain point and stay there. We bought in November for a next April flight and are glad we did at this point. My DW is the type of person who will check flights daily for months on end. I think that is the only real way to know whether the price you are paying is a deal or not. You need a multiple period baseline to establish relative value.
 

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