"DVC 2.0" theory & 2042

[_auroraborealis_]

Most people think they’re unlikely to extend another resort (although this isn’t actually known)

Realistically, it is known, though. The OKW extension was poorly thought out and badly done, because all of DVC is tied to land leases. By extending the land lease, Disney de facto extend every DVC contract at the resort the land lease was extended for.

Now, might Disney let a resort expire than immediately create a new condo association and points chart, for a resort open date of, say, February 1, 2042? Sure. But that's not an extension, even if they offer pre-sales to prior owners. It's a new land lease with new terms. Might there be a discount? Sure.

But there's not going to be an extension in a legal sense of the word where the land lease is extended, rather than allowed to expire. That was the fatal stupidity of the original OKW gambit, and why every OKW sale since has involved quitclaims.

 

[The Prophet]

If you own at any of these resorts below, you will have no more annual maintenance payments and no more points to use. The contract between you and DVC will expire on this day.

Beach Club
Boardwalk
Boulder Ridge
Hilton Head
Old Key West (non-extended)
Vero Beach

 

[kedskit5]

I think they offered the OKW extension way too early which is why it flopped like it did. Now let's say around year 2037 if they offered a 15 year extension, people would be more willing to shell out the cash to get the extension. DVC just did it 30 years too early IMO.

 

[TisBit]

I think the OP isn't completely off on a theory for the expiring resort. Regardless of the debate of what a "reduced" price is defined as, I think Disney will want to get any owners who still want to be there a deal to stay owners at a savings to anyone else. This would only make sense for Disney, to keep their captive audience and allow them to feel they are getting a deal.

I doubt that they will just extend the years on existing resorts though. Many of the expiring resorts are pretty small. The new DVC model is for more "tower" style resorts. Which gives them more rooms to sell. I think most of the resorts will be torn down and rebuilt. With some obvious exceptions, in which case those resorts will be gutted and redone completely and possibly reconfigured. Boardwalk is a great example, they won't want to add a tower on the boardwalk because of Epcot and the feel of the boardwalk itself. Although Beach Club, because it is further back from the main resort area, may be able to have a new building build with additional floors.

With all of that, Disney has plenty of time to decide how to actually handle this. I don't think they will address it until about 5 years before expiration. Disney still doesn't know when market saturation will occur. When do all the willing buyers get in and no one wants to buy anymore. Will they be able to rent condo's as easily as they do hotel rooms? Disney usually has a cycle where they rethink strategy if it is about perks, tickets, dining plans, etc. I think DVC will be the same way and trying to set a course for 20 years from now is futile.