First RIV resale contract sold for?

[tguz]

Enjoy it. You'll have earned it.

But using my own argument from Skier Pete's recent thread on "Sell me ...", I wouldn't purchase Riviera because it doesn't make me smile. I do not like the property. I think the interior is dreadfully ugly and dated. I do not want CBR as a visible neighbor; I do not want a high-rise tower. I do not want to take one gondola to a transfer station to take a 2nd gondola to reach DHS. I do not want to share gondolas with another resort. But most importantly, as we are discussing the resale side of Riv: I do not want to be restricted to that one resort and faced with (likely) very limited inventory.

I.do.not.like.it. Thus, I.will.not.buy.it. This is my reality and the 'no brainer' for me.

I.don't.care.if.you.would.buy.it.or.not.for.your.use. But a money making opportunity.....it is, no brainer.

 

[bwvBound]

I.don't.care.if.you.would.buy.it.or.not.for.your.use. But a money making opportunity.....it is, no brainer.

Ok, alright. As your first DVC contract, your "toe in the water" tester account, go for it. For those of us already holding sufficient points for either our own personal use or for renting, we might not need more points with their additional risks. Buy on the dip and enjoy them.

 

[tguz]

Ok, alright. As your first DVC contract, your "toe in the water" tester account, go for it. For those of us already holding sufficient points for either our own personal use or for renting, we might not need more points with their additional risks. Buy on the dip and enjoy them.

So, current dvc owners wouldn't like a money making opportunity......interesting. And I thought my kids were the only know-it-alls. Oh well.

 

[Bing Showei]

It's more than that....it seems to be people with absolute closed minds about buying this property at $50/pt. They know that at that price it would be a steal but for some reason absolutely will not acknowledge it. I mentioned buying it at $50 even if it was just to flip the property for some profit and someone actually said that I was assuming I could get the $50 back out of it. That statement is so far beyond insane I laughed. Has anyone EVER heard of a brand new DVC property as grand as this one selling at $50 or less even on the resale market? No. To answer your question, I do not own DVC. (I would for $50/pt for Riviera though haha) We are completely happy staying at the POP on our trips. If I had 200 dvc points somewhere, the maint fees would be about as much as the hotel cost for the week at POP plus I'd still have to pay for the actual points. So, at the moment dvc doesn't make sense to us.

Maybe the reason people have issue with conceding that $50/point is a “no brainer” is because no one knows what the true market value is. Never has a property been introduced with such a departure from the standard practice seen for 27 years of Disney timeshare existence. What if $50 is the true market value? I’m certainly not making the case, but to accept that this buy would be a no-brainer, you would have to assume it’s a given that you can turn it around to make a profit.

The only three data points we have to base anything on anything is an über sketchy broker sell/buy situation and two contracts that have been sitting around for a week asking $170. The resort is not yet open and we have zero idea what the resale value will be.

Could it be worth $120. Maybe, but what you’re talking about doing by buying in at $50 with the intention of flipping it for $120 is based on no historical data and pure speculative buying. Some refer to this as gambling. But you seem to establish as fact that these points are worth $120.

The challenge here, is that in your proposed scenario, someone needed to sell their Riviera contract. They went to a broker who offered to help them sell it. That broker determined that $50 would be a reasonable offer to accept that no one else is likely to beat, or that this best served their client. A buyer did not offer to buy it for more than $50. The seller felt it was not worth it hold out for a higher value. That’s what happens when a contract sells. Given all that, how could you conclude that this would be a profitable buy absent any historical data on value?

Do I think the points are worth $50? Probably not? But I don’t know. Would it sell for $120? Maybe? Probably? But I don’t know. No one does. But repeatedly your posts insist that this it is a foregone conclusion that Riviera is worth sooo much more than that.

The resale Riviera product that Disney has created is a vastly different product than anything we have seen historically with Disney timeshares. This is a fact. Before you disparage those who disagree, outline for me what you are basing your perceived value of the property on?

 

[mustinjourney]

seems to me that a lot of the "I won't buy at any price" crowd are emotionally responding to the resale restrictions. IMHO, it seems like a lot of "cut of your nose to spite your face."

Take the emotion out of it and look at the current facts.

The doomsday prices of $70 aren't happening.

The floor for DRR resale is $100. That has already been shown. It WILL go up from there.

What I really don't get is people freaking out over this and acting like buying direct DRR is the riskiest thing possible. The spread right now is about $80 a point between direct and resale. Well -- if you buy Aulani right now -- you're making arguably a dumber decision. The market is well established on that pricing and you're going to lose $80+ on that contract as well -- not to mention you don't even have WDW home resort priority.

And buying BCV direct? $225 a point with resale at $150 -- that's a $75 swing.
VGF? $80 swing.

Face the facts people -- if you're looking to buy direct -- for the vase majority of DVC properties -- you WILL BE PAYING ABOUT AN $80 difference.

 

[tguz]

Maybe the reason people have issue with conceding that $50/point is a “no brainer” is because no one knows what the true market value is. Never has a property been introduced with such a departure from the standard practice seen for 27 years of Disney timeshare existence. What if $50 is the true market value? I’m certainly not making the case, but to accept that this buy would be a no-brainer, you would have to assume it’s a given that you can turn it around to make a profit.

The only three data points we have to base anything on anything is an über sketchy broker sell/buy situation and two contracts that have been sitting around for a week asking $170. The resort is not yet open and we have zero idea what the resale value will be.

Could it be worth $120. Maybe, but what you’re talking about doing by buying in at $50 and flipping for $120 is based on no historical data and pure speculative buying. Some refer to this as gambling. But you seem to establish as fact that these points are worth $120.

The challenge here, is that in your proposed scenario, someone needed to sell their Riviera contract. They went to a broker who offered to help them sell it. That broker determined that $50 would be a reasonable offer to accept that no one else is likely to beat, or that this best served their client. A buyer did not offer to buy it for more than $50. The seller felt ir was not worth it hold out for a higher value. That’s what happens when a contract sells. Given all that, how could you conclude that this would be a profitable buy absent any historical data on value?

Do I think the points are worth $50? Probably not? But I don’t know. Would it sell for $120? Maybe? Probably? But I don’t know. No one does. But repeatedly your posts insist that this it is a foreigner conclusion that Riviera is worth sooo much more than that.

The resale Riviera product that Disney has created is a vastly different product than anything we have seen historically with Disney timeshares. This is a fact. Before you disparage those who disagree, outline for me what you are basing your perceived value of the property on?

I only used $120 because a previous poster suggested that amount. There will never be a dvc resort ON PROPERTY that will sell to the public for 50/pt. I hate to use words like never or always but in this case I am sure. If everyone would step back from their position on if they like this property or they dislike this property and look at it as a purely business decision with potential to make money on cheap points, people would agree with what I am saying.

 

[mustinjourney]

Maybe the reason people have issue with conceding that $50/point is a “no brainer” is because no one knows what the true market value is. Never has a property been introduced with such a departure from the standard practice seen for 27 years of Disney timeshare existence. What if $50 is the true market value? I’m certainly not making the case, but to accept that this buy would be a no-brainer, you would have to assume it’s a given that you can turn it around to make a profit.

The only three data points we have to base anything on anything is an über sketchy broker sell/buy situation and two contracts that have been sitting around for a week asking $170. The resort is not yet open and we have zero idea what the resale value will be.

Could it be worth $120. Maybe, but what you’re talking about doing by buying in at $50 with the intention of flipping it for $120 is based on no historical data and pure speculative buying. Some refer to this as gambling. But you seem to establish as fact that these points are worth $120.

The challenge here, is that in your proposed scenario, someone needed to sell their Riviera contract. They went to a broker who offered to help them sell it. That broker determined that $50 would be a reasonable offer to accept that no one else is likely to beat, or that this best served their client. A buyer did not offer to buy it for more than $50. The seller felt it was not worth it hold out for a higher value. That’s what happens when a contract sells. Given all that, how could you conclude that this would be a profitable buy absent any historical data on value?

Do I think the points are worth $50? Probably not? But I don’t know. Would it sell for $120? Maybe? Probably? But I don’t know. No one does. But repeatedly your posts insist that this it is a foregone conclusion that Riviera is worth sooo much more than that.

The resale Riviera product that Disney has created is a vastly different product than anything we have seen historically with Disney timeshares. This is a fact. Before you disparage those who disagree, outline for me what you are basing your perceived value of the property on?

Where is everyone getting $50 per point? Everything I heard was that it sold for $100 per point...and purchased by someone that flips contracts/rents out points.

Also -- based on rental value alone the contract is easily worth $50 per point. You don't think people will pay $220 a night to stay at one of the tower studios during F&W?

 

[tguz]

Where is everyone getting $50 per point? Everything I heard was that it sold for $100 per point...and purchased by someone that flips contracts/rents out points.

Also -- based on rental value alone the contract is easily worth $50 per point. You don't think people will pay $220 a night to stay at one of the tower studios during F&W?

The whole $50/pt came from an emotionally charged person who said they wouldn't even buy at $50 a point and I called them out that not buying at $50/pt would be insane.

 

[mustinjourney]

I only used $120 because a previous poster suggested that amount. There will never be a dvc resort ON PROPERTY that will sell to the public for 50/pt. I hate to use words like never or always but in this case I am sure. If everyone would step back from their position on if they like this property or they dislike this property and look at it as a purely business decision with potential to make money on cheap points, people would agree with what I am saying.

I'm a DVC owner and I agree with you.

I was also super pissed about the resale restrictions when they announced them.

I personally think the price is going to settle somewhere around $120 or so for resale. If the skyliner sucks, then I could see pricing be closer to $100 or possibly lower -- but I don't think that is likely.

 

[mustinjourney]

The whole $50/pt came from an emotionally charged person who said they wouldn't even buy at $50 a point and I called them out that not buying at $50/pt would be insane.

yeah -- I don't get it. You could rent the points out doing spec rentals during high demand times (F&W, 1st week of DEC, etc...) and likely get $20 per point ($240 a night). your costs would be around $10 per point -- so yeah -- I'm good with making 100% profit.

 

[bwvBound]

So, current dvc owners wouldn't like a money making opportunity......interesting. And I thought my kids were the only know-it-alls. Oh well.

Yep, yes, true. Yes, I'm going to disagree and you saw it coming.

In my college days, I taped a tiny strip of paper (from a fortune cookie) to inside cover of my linear algebra text book: When in doubt, do nothing.

I think this is my, personal, best position in the case of the hypothetical $50 Riv resale contract. I have nothing to win or lose if I do nothing. If you choose to take action (purchase), go ahead. You might gain from it; you might break even; you might lose some. But if I do not act, I have nothing to lose: no cost outlay; no commitment to annual dues; no frustration over future booking issues; no rental risks; etc. I'm in a sweet position for not acting on this deal.

That said, I faced a similar choice in 2004: buy the DVC that made me smile or some other property, unseen and pre-opening, that looked better on paper? I chose the "looks better on paper" path. After 15+ years of ownership, it remains a relatively unpopular DVC location with depressed resale pricing compared to the others. If I had to sell today, I expect to find a smidge of gains but had to wait a rather long time to see those prices rise. I have no desire be stuck holding Riv.

 

[Madame]

DVC IS an emotional buy (it’s a deluxe lite timeshare that owes its success solely to park proximity - see AUL etc), so why are emotionally based decisions being disparaged when it’s a decision not to buy? I already have grandfathered points at 2 resorts which allow me to trade into the system.

So you don’t have DVC because the MF alone are more than a stay at Pop. So how in the world does it make ANY sense to buy RIV (the highest priced concerning MF) at any price?!? Yeah, but I’m emotional and not making sense

 

[CarolMN]

I'm not seeing any value in continuing this argument and am tempted to just shut the thread down.

Let's return to the original subject (if anyone can remember what it is).

Thanks.

 

[tguz]

Yep, yes, true. Yes, I'm going to disagree and you saw it coming.

In my college days, I taped a tiny strip of paper (from a fortune cookie) to inside cover of my linear algebra text book: When in doubt, do nothing.

I think this is my, personal, best position in the case of the hypothetical $50 Riv resale contract. I have nothing to win or lose if I do nothing. If you choose to take action (purchase), go ahead. You might gain from it; you might break even; you might lose some. But if I do not act, I have nothing to lose: no cost outlay; no commitment to annual dues; no frustration over future booking issues; no rental risks; etc. I'm in a sweet position for not acting on this deal.

That said, I faced a similar choice in 2004: buy the DVC that made me smile or some other property, unseen and pre-opening, that looked better on paper? I chose the "looks better on paper" path. After 15+ years of ownership, it remains a relatively unpopular DVC location with depressed resale pricing compared to the others. If I had to sell today, I expect to find a smidge of gains but had to wait a rather long time to see those prices rise. I have no desire be stuck holding Riv.

Lol That's the whole point, you wouldn’t get stuck with it. You would have purchased so cheaply that you could afford to not hold out for top dollar and still make money. How do people not see this.

 

[tguz]

DVC IS an emotional buy (it’s a deluxe lite timeshare that owes its success solely to park proximity - see AUL etc), so why are emotionally based decisions being disparaged when it’s a decision not to buy? I already have grandfathered points at 2 resorts which allow me to trade into the system.

So you don’t have DVC because the MF alone are more than a stay at Pop. So how in the world does it make ANY sense to buy RIV (the highest priced concerning MF) at any price?!? Yeah, but I’m emotional and not making sense

Because a person buying at $50/pt would make money. Idk how many times it needs to be said. Idk about you but I like to buy low and sell high (or at least higher) and that is exactly what would happen if anyone bought Riv at $50.

 

[bwvBound]

I'm not seeing any value in continuing this argument and am tempted to just shut the thread down.

Let's return to the original subject (if anyone can remember what it is).

Thanks.

Acknowledged. I'll stop.

 

[Matty B13]

With the way that current management is acting, and moving DVC to Industry Standards, does it not also mean that possibly DVC resale value could end up at Industry Standard...... pennies on the dollar?

 

[Great3]

I don't think Riviera will ever sell for pennies for the dollar, simply because it on-site Disney resort with all the on-site Disney benefits, so it will maintain some kind of value. The problem is we don't know exactly where.

I don't think it will go down to even $50 a point, I think that's too low given current market conditions. I maintain it's true resale value would will below SSR / OKW, but above $50 a point. My best guess is somewhere between $70 a point to $90 a point.

I believe there will be enough buyers at this price range, than there will be sellers. Market demand will probably outpace supply, once pricing gets to $70 a point. So while many of us DVC owners wouldn't buy even at $50 a point (I don't consider making $20 a point a no brainer, because you still need to pay closing costs when buying, and pay a sales commission when selling), I am confident enough buyers will be lining at $70 a point, because I know that's the price I voted as for my Resale Riviera price on the Poll.

Great3

 

[ELMC]

Maybe the reason people have issue with conceding that $50/point is a “no brainer” is because no one knows what the true market value is. Never has a property been introduced with such a departure from the standard practice seen for 27 years of Disney timeshare existence. What if $50 is the true market value? I’m certainly not making the case, but to accept that this buy would be a no-brainer, you would have to assume it’s a given that you can turn it around to make a profit.

[SNIP]

The resale Riviera product that Disney has created is a vastly different product than anything we have seen historically with Disney timeshares. This is a fact.

This is the point. DVC has retained a resale value for a variety of reasons. First, it's Disney. Second, there's an active and well established market. Third, there's a rental market to use as a basis of comparison. I can go on and on, but we pretty much know why DVC is such a great timeshare product and will all agree that it does not behave like other resale timeshares. But from a functionality standpoint, Riviera RESALE behaves a lot more like Marriott, Windham, etc. than it does the original DVC. I think it would be a mistake to assume that Riviera will follow the same pattern as the original 14 and by extension I think it would be a mistake to value it based on their patterns.

I only used $120 because a previous poster suggested that amount. There will never be a dvc resort ON PROPERTY that will sell to the public for 50/pt. I hate to use words like never or always but in this case I am sure. If everyone would step back from their position on if they like this property or they dislike this property and look at it as a purely business decision with potential to make money on cheap points, people would agree with what I am saying.

2012 would disagree with you on this. Now, in fairness, a lot has happened since then and the market has grown substantially. But in the wake of a terrible economic collapse the DVC resale market took a huge dip, and prices for many resorts fell to or below the $50 level. If you combine another recession (or worse) with shortening lifespans I would not be surprised to see DVC resale prices approach 2012 price levels at some point in the future.

I'm a DVC owner and I agree with you.

I was also super pissed about the resale restrictions when they announced them.

I personally think the price is going to settle somewhere around $120 or so for resale. If the skyliner sucks, then I could see pricing be closer to $100 or possibly lower -- but I don't think that is likely.

Possibly. But in most of the discussions we have been having surrounding Riviera I have not seen a lot of attention paid to the maintenance fees. So I'll put this question out there. Would you rather own at VB for around $65 per point, with 25 years left on the contract, MF around $9.50, and the ability to book at any one of the original 14 DVC resorts or Riviera for around $100 per point, with 50 years left on the contract, MF around $8.50 per point and the ability to only book at Riviera? I don't think it's a no-brainer, and I actually think the argument is in favor of VB by far. If that's the case, then the prices on Riviera will need to come down in order for it to be a viable resale option.

 

[DougEMG]

This is the point. DVC has retained a resale value for a variety of reasons. First, it's Disney. Second, there's an active and well established market. Third, there's a rental market to use as a basis of comparison. I can go on and on, but we pretty much know why DVC is such a great timeshare product and will all agree that it does not behave like other resale timeshares. But from a functionality standpoint, Riviera RESALE behaves a lot more like Marriott, Windham, etc. than it does the original DVC. I think it would be a mistake to assume that Riviera will follow the same pattern as the original 14 and by extension I think it would be a mistake to value it based on their patterns.

Agree that thinking that Riviera will behave the same as other the original DVCs would be a mistake. Availability and resale value both have the potential to be greatly impacted in a negative manner with this resale restriction. At the last midnight magic I was at, I spend 30 minutes with 3 executives discussing with them why I thought they were making a mistake with the new resale restrictions.