I think that while we don't know when a effective vaccine will become available, I'm pretty confident if they discover one that proves effective and without serious side effects, that the manufacturers will start mass producing it on a scale that will provide it to as many that want it as possible. Granted political pressures and controls aside, it should hopefully get to those that need it first (medical and first responders) but the general population soon after. My only fear is that it will end up being too costly for many to obtain it. just hope that there's some kind of worldwide push to get to everyone so it can stop the spread. People are desperate to get things back to normal as much as they can, a vaccine can offer that, as long as it's a reasonable and freely available offering for the citizens of every country.
Some things are being done already and have been in the works for months:
For many of the major vaccine candidates, mass manufacturing is already being done or is being prepared so that is is ocurring in parallel with the clinical trials instead of after like normal. That way, IF the vaccine succeeds, there will already be hundreds of millions or more doses ready to go. Governments and NGOs around the world are pumping hundreds of millions [totalling billions] of dollars into this effort. Obviously not all the vaccine candidates will be successful, so some of this effort will end up being $ spent with no return, but the risk is deemed worthwhile. There are numerous media stories about this issue.
Many of the major commercial vaccine manufacturers that are partners in producing the vaccine candiates have publically announced that their vaccine will be available *at cost* at least during the pandemic period. In some cases this is a requirement of the university or government or government funding partnership they are in, in other cases it isn't clear if it is a partnership requirement or a voluntary decision. These statements are also well-publicized in media.
As for cost, here in Canada, as I suspect in most countries with universal healthcare, the cost will be free to the public and borne by the government who will bulk purchase, as for example the H1N1 pandemic vaccine was. For H1N1, the vaccine was supplied by higher levels of government to local public health units who set up mass vaccination clinics in public buildings (think schools, city halls, ice rinks, community centres, etc); eventually they were also available through family physician offices. There are already reports of governments and manufacturers looking at getting ready now to have enough supplies for eventual vaccinations -- syringes, etc that will be needed in however many months.
The implications for cruising are that if there is a successful vaccine(s) they will be available earlier than they would be under conventional vaccine production order timelines, which will hopefully help cruising get back to more normal operations [understanding it will still take some time after a vaccine].
For our family, at this point in time, we have a late summer 2021 Alaska cruise booked, but don't feel comfortable actually sailing it without a vaccine. Its over a year away so things may change of course.
SW
