Hawaii Tourism Not Starting Up Until Late Summer

[jkips]

There’s a good article on Bloomberg today titled “ ‘Don’t Come’: Hawaii Monthball $17.8 Billion Tourist Industry.” It makes very clear you do not want to be going to the state for a vacation during the travel quarantine. It also mentions how HI’s Governor David Ige last week said he plans to extend the travel quarantine through at least June.

 

[audrey2580]

There’s a good article on Bloomberg today titled “ ‘Don’t Come’: Hawaii Monthball $17.8 Billion Tourist Industry.” It makes very clear you do not want to be going to the state for a vacation during the travel quarantine. It also mentions how HI’s Governor David Ige last week said he plans to extend the travel quarantine through at least June.

The travel quarantine was officially extended to June 30th yesterday

 

[corgi_monster]

https://www.westhawaiitoday.com/202...plan-extends-14-day-quarantine-for-travelers/Just another article; looks like even if Aulani can open in phase 2, it will be at least the end of July if not August. That estimate sound about right?

Aulani resort as a whole could open today if they wanted to. Lodging is considered essential and was never required to shut down. The individual restaurants, spa, etc. within the hotel will be subject to government reopening guidelines though. I'm unsure when the pool area would be allowed to open. Swimming is exercising and is allowable under the stay-at-home orders. However, people are technically not allowed to sit on park benches, hang out on the grass, etc. so I don't think sitting on lounge chairs would be allowed. Beaches are open and you can sit on the sand, though

So... July 12th probably not happening? My friend is refusing to rebook her DVC... I'm worried she will lose the option of rebooking her points.

Aulani may be open on July 12 but I'm 99.9% certain the 14-day quarantine will still be in place.

There is an excellent article in today's local newspaper and its assessment of the current mood is spot on. There is no public demand and no political will to open up Hawaii to tourism this summer. https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020...eopening-to-both-tourists-and-new-infections/

 

[SwirlTheCitrus]

Aulani resort as a whole could open today if they wanted to. Lodging is considered essential and was never required to shut down. The individual restaurants, spa, etc. within the hotel will be subject to government reopening guidelines though. I'm unsure when the pool area would be allowed to open. Swimming is exercising and is allowable under the stay-at-home orders. However, people are technically not allowed to sit on park benches, hang out on the grass, etc. so I don't think sitting on lounge chairs would be allowed. Beaches are open and you can sit on the sand, though



Aulani may be open on July 12 but I'm 99.9% certain the 14-day quarantine will still be in place.

There is an excellent article in today's local newspaper and its assessment of the current mood is spot on. There is no public demand and no political will to open up Hawaii to tourism this summer. https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020...eopening-to-both-tourists-and-new-infections/

Thank you for your analysis! It makes sense, just a bummer. I appreciate the article!

 

[kverdon]

I watched an interview with the Mayor of Maui where he said they need tourists back soon. They have something like 35,000 unemployed on the Island. He said it is taking down most of the Island's buisness, not just the hotels but in service companies that maintain the grounds and buildings of the hotels. He said the island has no where near the population to support the restaurants on the Island and with 35000 of them unemployed, no money to eat out. He agreed that they would like to see the amount of tourists reduced but the loss of 5.1 billion in revenue is hurting the Island big time. Hawaiian Airlines is loosing 3.6 million a day. Tourism will probably be coming back sooner than later but I've mentally written off our July 4th trip to Maui. Unless their is a buisness revolt, no way they are opening up by then.

 

[VandVsmama]

Aulani resort as a whole could open today if they wanted to. Lodging is considered essential and was never required to shut down. The individual restaurants, spa, etc. within the hotel will be subject to government reopening guidelines though. I'm unsure when the pool area would be allowed to open. Swimming is exercising and is allowable under the stay-at-home orders. However, people are technically not allowed to sit on park benches, hang out on the grass, etc. so I don't think sitting on lounge chairs would be allowed. Beaches are open and you can sit on the sand, though



Aulani may be open on July 12 but I'm 99.9% certain the 14-day quarantine will still be in place.

There is an excellent article in today's local newspaper and its assessment of the current mood is spot on. There is no public demand and no political will to open up Hawaii to tourism this summer. https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020...eopening-to-both-tourists-and-new-infections/

It's definitely a challenging situation because so much of the state economy currently depends on tourism. If they keep the state shut down for too long, many small businesses are going to close. There's a trickle down effect to the total lack of tourism.

Just consider the real estate market. This may not apply as much on Oahu, but on islands like Maui, there's a lot of AirBNB & VRBO condo rental business. Let's say a fair percentage of condo owners rent them out through VRBO or locally-managed condo rental companies.

Well, if you rely on your unit being rented a certain percentage of each month in order to pay the mortgage AND if rentals are WAY down because the state is essentially closed to visitors OR if visitors don't WANT to go to that island because of restrictive policies (like needing to get a corona virus test before you arrive), then what you'll see is foreclosures increasing.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Aulani resort as a whole could open today if they wanted to. Lodging is considered essential and was never required to shut down.

Disney don't want to be enforcing the quarantine rules. Wandering around, sitting on the beach, and etc. becomes a problem under those rules. The average visitor to AUL wants the luau, characters, Aunty's, and is going to be highly resistant to the rules on quarantine.

 

[kverdon]

True, I highly, seriously doubt Aulani would open while the Islands are under quarantine. It is purposely too restrictive to make it worth a trip.

As to the Real Estate side, we were renting from a couple who owns a number of condos they rent out via VRBO. They must be hurting BIG TIME with zero income to cover the last 3 months of payments. It's true that foreclosures are prohibitted right now but that doesn't mean the back payments aren't acruing. I think they only reason it is in place is that Hawaii hasn't processed over 70,000 unemployment claims yet so people just don't have the money. This is going to hit 10's of thousands of people in waves, 1rst the loss of job and income then the wave of back mortage/rent payments and then again next April when they get hit with their tax bill for the taxes that are not withheld from the unemployment payouts.

 

[thedogatemyhomework]

for many residents the losses being felt by airbnb, vrbo, etc. are viewed as a benefit...not so much as a problem.

for many residents the part of tourism that would be considered "over tourism" aren't the tourists that flock to hotels...but the ones that spurred the airbnb/vrbo rentals that helped drive up housing prices.

its not just disney that doesn't want to enforce the quarantine...many other hotels remain closed (likely for similar reasons), and even the city doesn't want to have to dedicate that many police officers to quarantine enforcement. a lot of it is because enforcement costs money (in terms of manpower), and it also forces the ones enforcing it to be the "bad guy"...not something you want to have to do if you're in the hospitality industry.

 

[Jbarrerajr]

Hello thanks for all the insights and information on the State of Hawaii challenge with reopening to tourism. As a frequent visitor to the state, I do believe they should be cautious with the protecting both there citizens and unique environment.

 

[gioiamama]

As a local Hawaii resident my biggest concern is the second wave and our lack of resources. We have been so fortunate to have had such a decline and to be considering reopening our state. But what happens when the second wave hits? Will there be hospital beds? Will there be ventilators? We are in the middle of nowhere and there isn’t an option to go to another city for healthcare. So I hope that you consider that if you choose to travel. It’s your choice and you must decide what is right for you and your family. I would love to be at WDW this summer or even later this year. But the risk in travel is too great in my eyes.
Just my two cents! I also may secretly be hoping for amazing kamaaina discounts soon!

 

[bower007]

I canceled our Aulani trip booked for October; just too many unknowns and too much risk. We'll book in a few years after all of this is over.

 

[izzy]

I cancelled my September Aulani trip. Just too many unknowns. We’ll try again in a few years when this virus either calms down, an effective properly tested vaccine is developed, or better treatment solutions are identified.

 

[emilymad]

We are considering next May but at little nervous to spend the time planning such a big vacation with so many unknowns.

 

[OffToDWD]

We cancelled our Christmas/New Year Aulani trip. Considering next May/June...

 

[McSmooth]

What's interesting is that those in Hawaii are very concerned about these visitors that have been continually coming, even with the 14-day quarantine in place. They believe these people will create a spike in cases and are frustrated that the local police aren't cracking down on them when they break the rules.

However, since the quarantine has been in place roughly 10,000 visitors have arrived (7-8 weeks at avg. 200 per day). No spike in cases at all. In fact, as the number of daily visitors continues to increase, the number of new statewide cases has been 4 or fewer since May 1. There's currently just 9 active cases on Oahu.

So based on that, these lawbreaking 10,000 "diseased" mainlanders really aren't getting anyone sick.

 

[gioiamama]

What's interesting is that those in Hawaii are very concerned about these visitors that have been continually coming, even with the 14-day quarantine in place. They believe these people will create a spike in cases and are frustrated that the local police aren't cracking down on them when they break the rules.

However, since the quarantine has been in place roughly 10,000 visitors have arrived (7-8 weeks at avg. 200 per day). No spike in cases at all. In fact, as the number of daily visitors continues to increase, the number of new statewide cases has been 4 or fewer since May 1. There's currently just 9 active cases on Oahu.

So based on that, these lawbreaking 10,000 "diseased" mainlanders really aren't getting anyone sick.

Your numbers are inaccurate. We are expecting 3.5M visitors for the remainder of the year, vs. our normal 30M. Travel will bring the virus. We have a few 100 ICU beds on Oahu. Is it worth the risk?

 

[FightingIrishman]

Unfortunately we had to cancel Spring Break at Aulani. Trip of a lifetime planned but cannot be rescheduled due to future trips already on the books. Our high school takes a trip to Hawaii every other year, so the kids will see Oahu then. As a family, I doubt we make it to Aulani. Kids grow and the opportunity was lost.

 

[Memorymakerfor4]

We haven't cancelled yet, but I've pretty much left any hope of our late summer trip happening behind. We've already scheduled another vacation to replace it. Honestly, I'm just not sure how I feel about visiting Hawaii anymore and am not sure if we will rebook. I'm not going to force my children to go through that nose swab just for a vacation.

 

[corgi_monster]

What's interesting is that those in Hawaii are very concerned about these visitors that have been continually coming, even with the 14-day quarantine in place. They believe these people will create a spike in cases and are frustrated that the local police aren't cracking down on them when they break the rules.

However, since the quarantine has been in place roughly 10,000 visitors have arrived (7-8 weeks at avg. 200 per day). No spike in cases at all. In fact, as the number of daily visitors continues to increase, the number of new statewide cases has been 4 or fewer since May 1. There's currently just 9 active cases on Oahu.

So based on that, these lawbreaking 10,000 "diseased" mainlanders really aren't getting anyone sick.

It's widely accepted and proven that the majority of covid19 cases were brought to Hawaii by locals returning home from trips and then spreading it to the community and NOT by tourists. The 14-day quarantine is meant to keep people IN/discourage travel just as much as it's meant to keep people out.