Here now...couple line observations

[tj4disney]

From Monday, 6/1 at MK. At 1:00 in the afternoon we used our FP for Space Mountain. Posted SB time was 105 minutes. I was surprised to find FP line backed waaay up (not all that far into the building), and significantly longer than the SB line. Good news was that the FP line moved well, but it was longer than I would have guessed. When we got off ride, SB posted time was at 80.

We got a 4th FP for Space at 9:15pm. That time posted SB was 40 minutes, and the whole situation was more like I would expect...FP line walk to virtually the merge point, and SB not too far in.

Yesterday (6/2) at DHS at RnRC from about 5:15 to 6:00 I saw the posted SB time go from 70 to 30 to 70 to 40.

Today (6/3) at DHS, rode tsmm first thing as SB (8:00am for EMH). They were having technical difficulties, and didn't get off ride until 8:30 to see posted SB of 75 minutes. Woman in charge of posting time said that the line was likely 45 minutes, but she just wasn't sure enough to knock it down. We got in line...by the time in building, SB was changed back to 45. Actual time was about 30 minutes.

Then later in day did tsmm with FP at 1:00pm. FP line was out door into walkway. Posted SB was 85 minutes, but SB line was only backed up to the maze part leading up to PotatoHead. The FP line actually moved pretty quickly, so clearly they were tilting the ride ratio very heavily to FP users.

My conclusions from these examples (and other observations)...1) SB times are not particular stable. They bounce ALOT and are often (although not always) quite overstated...2) particular to TSMM, this afternoon it almost looked like a de facto ride reservation system...sure, there weren't that many people actually in the SB line, but the volume is way tilted to FP. My first example of Space Mountain also kinda felt that way.

 

[DrummerBoy523]

From Monday, 6/1 at MK. At 1:00 in the afternoon we used our FP for Space Mountain. Posted SB time was 105 minutes. I was surprised to find FP line backed waaay up (not all that far into the building), and significantly longer than the SB line. Good news was that the FP line moved well, but it was longer than I would have guessed. When we got off ride, SB posted time was at 80.

We got a 4th FP for Space at 9:15pm. That time posted SB was 40 minutes, and the whole situation was more like I would expect...FP line walk to virtually the merge point, and SB not too far in.

Yesterday (6/2) at DHS at RnRC from about 5:15 to 6:00 I saw the posted SB time go from 70 to 30 to 70 to 40.

Today (6/3) at DHS, rode tsmm first thing as SB (8:00am for EMH). They were having technical difficulties, and didn't get off ride until 8:30 to see posted SB of 75 minutes. Woman in charge of posting time said that the line was likely 45 minutes, but she just wasn't sure enough to knock it down. We got in line...by the time in building, SB was changed back to 45. Actual time was about 30 minutes.

Then later in day did tsmm with FP at 1:00pm. FP line was out door into walkway. Posted SB was 85 minutes, but SB line was only backed up to the maze part leading up to PotatoHead. The FP line actually moved pretty quickly, so clearly they were tilting the ride ratio very heavily to FP users.

My conclusions from these examples (and other observations)...1) SB times are not particular stable. They bounce ALOT and are often (although not always) quite overstated...2) particular to TSMM, this afternoon it almost looked like a de facto ride reservation system...sure, there weren't that many people actually in the SB line, but the volume is way tilted to FP. My first example of Space Mountain also kinda felt that way.

Was at the parks 5/28-6/1. Noticed the SB posted times were way off most of the time in the rider's favor, however there was one time where the wait for splash was posted at 20 and it took us 35.

 

[TwinPrincessMermaids]

It also depends on when you get there for your FP. If you come right when your window opens, likely its the same window for almost everyone else. (Lets say we all get to select 1:50-2:50. So we take it. We get there at 1:50...and so does almost everyone else...) If you actually come midway in your window, you won't have that really really long FP check in line. It only builds up when everyone has to scan all at the same time. But that's the only real delay and they do move fast, but potentially if you come a few min after, you won't have the window rush. I saw potentially because I'll find out on Sat. I have not been to WDW in the summer in decades. So I could be completely wrong.

 

[snayak]

It also depends on when you get there for your FP. If you come right when your window opens, likely its the same window for almost everyone else. (Lets say we all get to select 1:50-2:50. So we take it. We get there at 1:50...and so does almost everyone else...) If you actually come midway in your window, you won't have that really really long FP check in line. It only builds up when everyone has to scan all at the same time. But that's the only real delay and they do move fast, but potentially if you come a few min after, you won't have the window rush. I saw potentially because I'll find out on Sat. I have not been to WDW in the summer in decades. So I could be completely wrong.

FP+ windows are every 5 or 10 minutes, so if you came at 2:20 that would still overlap with SOMEBODY's FP+ window. Often, the backups at the FP+ tapstiles are due to user error OR a huge group going at once - they usually don't take long to work though and you still get through pretty quick (certainly faster than the poor folks who were already in standby!)

Standby times are just estimates which take into account a huge skew towards FP+...lets assume Disney knows how many FP+ they issue every hour and factor that in so standby people aren't annoyed it took them 50 minutes when it was posted at 30 due to a glut of FP+ returns. I wouldn't be surprised if standby times were overstated for other reasons, such as at the end of the night to avoid people getting in line so the park can close quicker.

 

[TwinPrincessMermaids]

@snayak I noticed they are closing lines at 8:30 nowadays to avoid the having to ride everyone that gets in line at closing (in this case 10pm). What a racket! Our rock solid years long plan now spoiled.

 

[snayak]

@snayak I noticed they are closing lines at 8:30 nowadays to avoid the having to ride everyone that gets in line at closing (in this case 10pm). What a racket! Our rock solid years long plan now spoiled.

I can only imagine - its like the "grocery store shrink ray"...same price (or more!) for less product. I was annoyed enough with MNSSHP 4 nights a week in October - we didn't get to see Wishes or MSEP once!

 

[scrapquitler]

My conclusions from these examples (and other observations)...1) SB times are not particular stable. They bounce ALOT and are often (although not always) quite overstated...2) particular to TSMM, this afternoon it almost looked like a de facto ride reservation system...sure, there weren't that many people actually in the SB line, but the volume is way tilted to FP. My first example of Space Mountain also kinda felt that way.

That was our conclusion in April as well. Posted SB times were always overstated.

 

[BuzzinDownToDisney]

The official wait times are almost always off. The Touring Plans app is far more accurate because they're user generated from people on the lines

 

[nilla]

I've noticed this at off times, too. We typically go in late April/early May, and most of the time the SB wait time was overstated. Only maybe once or twice was it understated.

My theory, which may be complete garbage, is that Disney intentionally does this because people will react much more favorably to having a shorter wait than advertised than a longer one.

For example, if the posted wait time is 45 minutes, and you wait 30, you'll be pretty happy. Contrast that with waiting 30 when the posted wait time is 15.

 

[kamik86]

I've noticed this at off times, too. We typically go in late April/early May, and most of the time the SB wait time was overstated. Only maybe once or twice was it understated.

My theory, which may be complete garbage, is that Disney intentionally does this because people will react much more favorably to having a shorter wait than advertised than a longer one.

For example, if the posted wait time is 45 minutes, and you wait 30, you'll be pretty happy. Contrast that with waiting 30 when the posted wait time is 15.

I think it is a combination of this and just how they do the calculation. They give a red tag to someone and then scan it when they get to the end of the line to see how long the line was. However that means the time updates to how long the line was for the people that just got to the end.

This causes the times to swing because alot of people won't get in a line if it is more then 30 min. So lets say its opening. Time posted is 10 min as that is the lowest they tend to say. Everyone is getting in line though. After a short time they give someone a tag. They wait 30 min. Now the posted time says 30 min. Alot of people don't want to wait that long early in the morning so they pass by. Someone that really wants to do the ride though does choose to get in line and gets a tag though. However since less people got in line due to the long wait its actually shortened. So he only waits 20 min. The people that go in 10 min after him only waited 15 (but they didn't have a red tag).

The sign now says 20 min and since a bunch of rides are starting to have lines people think that is an ok time and get in line while this is relatively short... Now more people are getting in line faster then the line loads and the time grows. Next person with a tag say 20 min but really ways 35...

And this continues all day long...