Marathon Weekend 2019

[roxymama]

I think we are all also forgetting the "if my family weren't here and the parks weren't here, I'd eat properly and go to bed properly and rest properly and actually do my last three training runs properly"
The vacation aspect can take any seasoned runner down a peg on speed even without factoring in stops.
Also that whole watching fireworks and then getting up at 3am. I never wake up that early to run anywhere else.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Doh! I did misremember as @DopeyBadger indicated above. However, they are three self-reported buckets. I'd rather have real race data.

Here was an interesting breakdown of 2018 Disney Marathon finish times and other data:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/...altDisneyWorldMarathon2018/DisneyMarathon2018

I believe it was originally posted by @FFigawi in the 2018 thread after the race was over.



Using the current corral system, you can see that the peak for some corrals occurs roughly at the expected time. With this comes a fairly large variability in finish even with those who do submit a POT. For example, two people who were assigned Corral A finished in >8 hours, or said another way 16% of Corral A finished 1.5 hours slower than their POT would initially suggest. Whereas, the peak moves further from expected in the last few corrals (D, E, F, G and H). These seem to be about 30-60 minutes off from estimate for a variety of reasons (injury, alcohol, theme park rides, running with family, etc.). The biggest shift coming in Corral F because runners got wise to the system on moving up in corrals.

But I think @ZellyB nailed it. If it doesn't benefit Disney, then they're probably not going to do it. It might get overly complicated to try and pre-predict race results. Much simpler just to ask for a POT and if you don't have a submittable POT then estimated finish. If you want to increase the POT submittable distance to 5k/10k sure, but all 5k/10k times would be treated equally across the board (with no other input like age or gender) for corral purposes.

 

[croach]

I tend to disagree. I envision an initial model like this:

Finish_Time ~ POT + POT_distance + Age_of_POT + First_Marathon + Age + Gender + Num_of_Photos

I am assuming Disney is tagging all photos with a bib number since they are atomically added to your account. Of course there are confounding variables, but there is error in all models. And Num_of_Photos couldn't be used in the prediction model since we wouldn't know that ahead of time, but could estimate how much that matters (i.e. is it even statistically significant).

My issue is that for the roughly 50% of runners that don't submit a POT, their coral placement is random. Did I misremember that if I selected 5:30 or longer it didn't ask for an expected completion time this year? I think such a model would smooth out the starting corals. And moreover, someone may choose to run slower or stop more during a Disney marathon, but for me it is about the first 5k to 10k while the field spreads out.

I’m not really sure what your calculation is trying to do but why in the world would it include gender and age in the equation?

 

[croach]

...............

 

[roxymama]

Number of photos does not always corelate to time. I'm a small sample size but for a 5k I ran out of Corral A and not even at the very front. My 5k PR is 27:49, I finished in the low 28's and stopped for all 5 character stops. There were no lines so they took mere seconds, longest I waited was for one person ahead of me.
That was definitely not the case even from corral B on my latest half marathon. There were lines blocks long as you got miles into the race. I can only imagine what they will be for WDW weekend where I should be in D but may run with a friend from F-ish.

 

[Keels]

While there were 26000-27000 bibs the last few years, I do believe there is some wiggle in those numbers. I feel like Disney might have a bigger rate of runners not showing up to the start. @Keels I believe usually has a good way to figure out the number of runners that did not finish the race. Something about a SAG and runner tracking is in my memory here. I think it was lower than 20% though.

SAG List is the name and bib number of all people that are pulled from the race either via medical or sweepers - so if you are transported by RunDisney/Track Shack to the finish area (via medical van, sweeper bus, golf cart, hot air balloon, etc.), you're on this list. It's scrubbed and updated after each race, so there's no real historic list that is accessible but I guess if you wanted to save data, you could copy the list after each race ... but I don't really care that much so I haven't done it.

Anyway ... this list DOES include people who go inside the major medical tent post-race after crossing the finish line (ie., like if you have to go in a wheelchair or need an IV or something other than the self-serve area of BioFreeze and ice), but I don't think the number of those peeps is significant enough to make a difference.

 

[flav]

Just finished week 5 of Higdon Novice 1 (I think that I am on the same schedule as @run.minnie.miles ). Did 10 miles on Saturday morning in GLORIOUS 60 degree weather here in Tuscaloosa, then went to go see the Tide play...

I think that the plan is definitely working. My strategy of going out slow for the weekend "long" runs really seems to be paying off. Also, I never thought that I'd figure a 4 or 5 mile run is a "short" run, but I am feeling that way a bit now. One thing I do worry about, is with the longer runs coming up, what I should do about placing water/powerade so that I can hydrate during runs. I really don't want to do 5 3-mile loops around the neighborhood, I'd rather get out about town, but I do want to be able to hydrate accordingly. Anyone have strategies on this?

When the water fountains are closed in fall/winter, I just pause my long run and stop at a convenience store or pharmacy to buy electrolyte drink or water. Not super ecological but it is also exceptional.

 

[JulieODC]

I'm sure everyone here is already thinking about costumes for the race(s) (see above at @roxymama's bird!).

If anyone is interested in a red or green sparkle athletic skirt (size medium, brand new in package) let me know! I have one of each and I'll send it to you! No charge, I won them a while back.

View attachment 358553 View attachment 358554

I’d love the green one if it’s still available!!

 

[JulieODC]

I don’t really have a training plan for the 10k, but am planning a 10 miler a month later, so will sort of be dual training for that.

I need to start figuring out my plan for that! So this question was a good reminder!

 

[KattyBelle]

I'm sure everyone here is already thinking about costumes for the race(s) (see above at @roxymama's bird!).

If anyone is interested in a red or green sparkle athletic skirt (size medium, brand new in package) let me know! I have one of each and I'll send it to you! No charge, I won them a while back.

View attachment 358553 View attachment 358554

That's so awesome! I'd be interested in the red one if it's still available.

 

[pluto377]

My training is going ok. That's pretty much how all my training cycles go. I tend to miss a lot of runs. I try my hardest, but life is hectic and motivation has always been a problem for me. After my HM last weekend I've decided to incorporate some speed work and tempo runs in the hopes of improving my pace a bit. I also bought some new sneakers because my plantar fascitis is really flaring up. I was almost in tears the last two miles of the HM. I've also got to do much better with my diet. Not just to lose weight, but also to fuel my body better for long runs. Hopefully it's not too late to turn things around and really start giving my best effort.

On that note, I'm reading all this PoT stuff and kicking myself that I didn't train harder for my PoT race. Argh. I hate that I will be stuck in the back with hordes of people when I know I could have been up further.

 

[lahobbs4]

So how confident are we that ticket prices will increase tomorrow?? 100%? Because I still haven't purchased mine for marathon weekend.

I'm looking at you @rteetz

 

[Keels]

So how confident are we that ticket prices will increase tomorrow?? 100%? Because I still haven't purchased mine for marathon weekend.

I'm looking at you @rteetz

100 percent positive. The booking site will be down from midnight until early/mid morning to accommodate the change in ticketing process.

 

[flav]

I totally get why there is such a spread. If I submit a POT, then, my target finish time at runDisney will be the same because I want to start with same pace runners. I hate a sluggish start. Then, stopping for pictures, if not in the A corral, can seriously add time. Not only because of the lines but also because, as time goes by, you endup with slower and more congested corrals. It probably comes to what people come to runDisney for... Speed not always being the priority.

 

[FFigawi]

I tend to disagree. I envision an initial model like this:

Finish_Time ~ POT + POT_distance + Age_of_POT + First_Marathon + Age + Gender + Num_of_Photos

I am assuming Disney is tagging all photos with a bib number since they are atomically added to your account. Of course there are confounding variables, but there is error in all models. And Num_of_Photos couldn't be used in the prediction model since we wouldn't know that ahead of time, but could estimate how much that matters (i.e. is it even statistically significant).

How is Disney going to know the number of photo stops, drink stops, and ride stops? Or how long one person spends at any particular stop? 1) not all photo stops have Disney photographers, so counting purely on the official ones isn't accurate. 2) the other possible stops have no official record at all. 3) not all stops take the same amount of time.

 

[pluto377]

100 percent positive. The booking site will be down from midnight until early/mid morning to accommodate the change in ticketing process.

Thanks for reminding me. I just bought my tickets! When I wake up tomorrow, I better not find out it would have been cheaper to wait!

 

[lahobbs4]

100 percent positive. The booking site will be down from midnight until early/mid morning to accommodate the change in ticketing process.

Just bought them, thank you!! Nothing like waiting until the last minute

 

[Keels]

How is Disney going to know the number of photo stops, drink stops, and ride stops? Or how long one person spends at any particular stop? 1) not all photo stops have Disney photographers, so counting purely on the official ones isn't accurate. 2) the other possible stops have no official record at all. 3) not all stops take the same amount of time.

You're thinking far too much about this. I stopped paying attention when it was suggested that all runners submit a 5K time.

 

[camaker]

100 percent positive. The booking site will be down from midnight until early/mid morning to accommodate the change in ticketing process.

Thanks for the heads up! I’ve got my AP, but needed to get DD a ticket as a Christmas present since she’ll be going to Marathon Weekend with me. Hopefully buying tonight saved a few $$$!

 

[roxymama]

Thanks for reminding me. I just bought my tickets! When I wake up tomorrow, I better not find out it would have been cheaper to wait!

Same here. But I have to guess marathon weekend isn't gonna be the cheapest ticket level. I'm only buying three park days which would be fri, sat, sun. So I just went ahead and bought tonight. May the odds be ever in your favor!