mixed use vs DVC only?

Discussion in 'Purchasing DVC' started by summerw, May 13, 2019.

  1. crvetter

    crvetter DIS Veteran

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    I don't think you are the only one that feels that way. But my point was that there are just two population groups in resale: those buying for home resort priority and those buying with the idea of trading out. If you belong to the former the resale restrictions don't matter too much and if you belong to the latter my point was that DRR would likely be too high of a price (if resale restrictions didn't exist) for that population to consider when AKV/SSR/OKW are selling for much less. It's really a question if a resort of that size can support the former population, I suspect yes but because of the larger resort size it will be a buyers market to a degree depressing prices some but likely not to SSR level

    This of course requires the Skyliner to work as intended and run pre and post park hours. I have no reason to suspect the Skyliner won't work well.
     
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  2. kboo

    kboo DIS Veteran

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    I think there are many DVC owners who have relatively unrestricted points, and who are waiting to see if RIV is really great, and if they can book there at 7 months. If it's great but really, really hard to get at 7 months, then I suspect that there will be a fairly robust resale market. Also - you are speaking from the point of view of a BWV owner who has points in the EP/HS area, in a better location than RIV. So it's unlikely you'd bother to stay farther away.

    Also - having seen the RIV model rooms in real life, and having stayed at VGF a few times now, I will tell you, the rooms look REALLY nice. The videos don't do it justice.

    Also, I suspect there will be a decent rental market for a while.
     
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  4. skier_pete

    skier_pete DIsney-holics Anon

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    But the point is pricing is all about supply and demand. To me there's really 3 categories:
    1) Those that only care about their home resort.
    2) Those that primarily want to stay at their home resort, but occasionally want to move around.
    and
    3) Those that like their home resort - but the priority is the ability to move around.

    You point out category 1 and 3, but did not include the middle of the road folks. As you say - Category 1 will gladly buy at Riviera, Category 3 won't touch it. The folks in the middle category, they could really go either way, but it will mostly depend on price. A resort like SSR - you mostly get Category 3 and then a few people that actually like the resort.

    Either way you slice it, the DEMAND for Riviera is cutting out the third category, and at least some of the second. Is that 50% of the normal demand for resale contracts? Probably not, but it will be some significant portion of the demand. Now the location will boost the number of people in Category 1 versus say AKV, but it won't be as high as say the Poly or Beach Club.

    Now when you look at SUPPLY you can pretty much ignore all the factors that go into demand. SUPPLY is almost totally based on the size of the resort. I do believe that roughly the same fraction of owners sell their timeshares every year, regardless of location. Sure a brand new resort has a low fraction of sellers, but once you get to 4-5 years on the market, I think SUPPLY is a steady fraction. However, a resort like VGF, which only has 2.5 million points, has a lower supply than say BLT which has 5.7 million points. Since Riviera has 7 million points, supply should be on par with the larger resorts like AKV and OKW which are in that ball park.

    So you are looking at a resort that will have higher than average supply and lower than average demand. I just can't imagine that this will support a price in the high range of the resale market. I agree that it probably will stay above SSR and maybe AKV just because it will be a popular location, but I don't think it will be much higher and could even be slightly lower depending on the demand of buyers. It certainly will NOT be on par with VGF.
     
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  5. CarolMN

    CarolMN DVC Co-Moderator Moderator

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    You're not alone, but there are also a whole lot of us that own at the near-park resorts (BCV, BWV, BLT, Poly, VGF and maybe CCV & BRV) who seldom (if ever) trade out at 7 months. I would't care one bit if we were never able to stay anywhere but our home resort, and we've owned it for 20 years. IMO, almost all of the small contract purchases at the near-park resorts are purchased to stay pretty much exclusively at the home resort.

    I agree with your above "categories" , but I think there are enough of members like me (in cat 1) to support the DRR resale market - assuming that the resort & skyliner turn out to be as popular as many here think they will be. We'll see. :)
     
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  6. crvetter

    crvetter DIS Veteran

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    Did I say it was on par with VGF, apologize if it came across that way? I believe I stated it would be more BLT or PVB in my initial post. Exactly for everything that you stated, which I expressed in my posts also that it is a larger resort so a lot of supply with a diminished demand. Though I personally don't think much of Category 2, which you are correct I didn't point out, exists on the resale market today anymore and won't exist in a meaningful fashion in 10-15 years as people move towards category 1 by the resale restrictions and expiring L14 resorts. Personally Category 2 people are less likely to be off-put by the resale restrictions than those in Category 3 and more compliant to becoming Category 1. Once L14 resorts end the people in Category 3 are going to own contracts that will be worth less and less which was my point why it won't be SSR level low.

    Also I believe PVB is an example of lost demand but sustaining prices. It lost demand by only having studios but it's resale price has been hovering around 140-145 fairly stable and it is a fairly large resort.
     
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  7. kboo

    kboo DIS Veteran

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    No that was probably me! On the rooms tour, our guide kept pointing out how it was on a par with "The Grand" in finishes, styling, luxury, etc. but they took a few things a step further. Also, we were moving from a room at the Swan to a studio at VGF that day, and so I had a chance to make a same-day comparison, albeit between a show room and a lived-in room. The finishes in the RIV bathrooms were nicer (marble v. subway tile), and I liked the hardwood floor in the living room of the 1br. Also it felt like it had more storage space for clothes and luggage in the RIV studio.
     
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  8. crvetter

    crvetter DIS Veteran

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    From the photos I’ve seen it does indeed look very nice and I’m looking forward to touring it in person this weekend (along with actually staying in VGF too). I’m curious if I’ll feel the same way, though the photos of the two make me think so.
     
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  9. aoconnor

    aoconnor WDW Nut

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    Agreed re: having the supply of a large resort and reduced demand (at least somewhat, maybe not as much as some initially thought).

    I for one am in 'Category 2'... I'm planning on adding on at VGF this year and while I will likely use those points at VGF a majority of the time, I wouldn't want to be locked into staying there every single time for 50 years straight. Might want to switch it up at Poly on occasion, or combine them with my other points for a special big trip, etc. It's a serious restriction.
     
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  10. skier_pete

    skier_pete DIsney-holics Anon

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    So I don't wholly get the argument that folks like the Riviera because "the rooms are so nice". Aren't all the recent DVC builds with really nice rooms? To me what makes a resort is the decor and the feel of the resort. I feel like I don't know what the Riviera will really feel like. I think the building will be nice, but how is the proximity of the CBR rooms really going to make this resort feel like when you are staying there. Half the rooms have a view of CBR and Pop Century in the distance. What will the lobby and the restaurants be like? Is the pool big enough for the crowds? I know this is a bit off topic, but it just surprises me how people are so sure that everyone's going to love this resort like it's a monorail resort. I know I've been a big supporter of the gondolas, but even there we don't know how well it's going to work. Is it going to be a hassle to be at a mid-station? Or changing at the CBR station? There's a lot of questions to me.
     
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  11. kboo

    kboo DIS Veteran

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    I'll be interested in hearing your perspective!
     
  12. KAT4DISNEY

    KAT4DISNEY Glad to be a test subject

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    I just know that I'd prefer to already have the probable price adjustment in my resale contract instead of being the direct buyer who didn't.
     
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  13. Madame

    Madame DIS Veteran

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    I agree. We would be in the 2nd group. I’ve used our expensive BCV points at SSR, AKV & BRV when piecing together a last minute trip several months ago. I like having HR priority, but don’t always want to have to use it.

    I wanted to like DRR & probably will. I wanted to eventually pick up points there resale, and not necessarily dirt cheap - I can justify paying a fair price for a good resort. I can’t justify it with the restrictions. What happens if my points go into holding & I can’t even use them before they expire? Too risky when there are other options that give me more choices.
     
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  14. summerw

    summerw DIS Veteran

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    Agree for sure but I think there’s another element in that as the years pass, resales will keep happening at other resorts, subject to the new restrictions. As more contracts cannot trade into Riviera, points at the Riviera will become more valuable, not enough to matter at first but eventually some, especially if possibly Riviera resales can also trade into Reflections and future resorts and other resales cannot.

    Has there been an in-depth discussion somewhere on what people think will happen with Riviera resales and Reflections? I’d enjoy reading it.
     
  15. crvetter

    crvetter DIS Veteran

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    Some of these are valid points for me which personally have me waiting to buy until after it opens, but the resale restrictions don’t have me saying no because I don’t fall into the category buying with any intention of using them elsewhere. I’ll simply rent the points and pay cash if I have to do a lot of short notice trips, which I don’t have to do as mine are fairly regimented.

    As for the close proximity to CBR I guess I don’t personally consider it worse than PVB to the TTC. In fact the close to CBR is some what of a positive for me as I find the lack of a food court at the deluxe resorts to be their biggest drawback. So being able to readily walk to a food court, on grounds that nice and a plus to me. But some people I’m sure won’t like the idea of moderate resort guests simply walking over to a deluxe resort or looking at a moderate resort; I just don’t feel that way. This again would be somewhat analogous to all the day guest coming through the monorail resorts if it really happens. The smaller lobby really makes it less attractive for that purpose.

    And I wouldn’t say quality is what I refer to strictly when I say a room is nice; though, I am referring to size and furniture layout also. So with the Murphy bed and pull down bunk with a mix of carpet and laminate all make the room nice on top of the high end finishing (which I have yet to see in person so not sure on this front). I would also say the nice comment is a very subjective term and everyone on here likely meant it that way and some also feel there is a larger group that like that aesthetic based on its similar design to VGF.

    The pool (deck) capacities are stated at 90 (608) and 50 (331) for Riviera. For comparison WL is 123 (275) and 50 (150), BW is 102 (425) and 52 (168). Which technically speaking are both larger resorts when you include all guests but with similar pool sizes. So my guess is that pool size will probably work.
     
    Last edited: May 15, 2019 at 6:00 PM
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  16. summerw

    summerw DIS Veteran

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    Won’t the Riviera have a food court? I thought I read that?
     
  17. crvetter

    crvetter DIS Veteran

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    No it will have a quick service option so more like a single stall of a food court. Where as the one at CBR (basically all moderates and values) are of much greater size and varieties.
     
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  18. Katie L

    Katie L Mouseketeer

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    To me, CBR did not qualify as a food court.
     
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  19. summerw

    summerw DIS Veteran

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    So, similar to BC Marketplace? I’ve never stayed at CBR.
     
  20. katandmouse

    katandmouse Earning My Ears

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    I think it is possible that people will want to buy Riviera in the future bc they can’t stay there on their resale points, especially as more and more resale buyers enter the system. But IMO I don’t think DVC will allow resale Riviera/Reflections/new resorts to trade into each other; I think they’re more likely to charge a conversion fee to let all those resale purchasers trade out. Again, just my opinion (hope)!

    These are two threads I know of where people were guessing about Riviera resales:

    https://www.disboards.com/threads/p...viera-resale-contracts-listing-price.3744608/

    https://www.disboards.com/threads/multi-site-pos-revision-dated-01-19-19.3734585/ This is a long one! But it could give you an idea about the specific resale restrictions. The first post has the revised amendment that outlines the restrictions.

    I think right now there’s a lot of uncertainty about resales (at all the resorts). We all have our guesses, but who knows...
     
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  21. katandmouse

    katandmouse Earning My Ears

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    Also wanted to add, count me in as Category 2. We just happily bought BCV resale (ranked the least economical DVC resort!) looking forward to 22 years of BCV vacations with some split stays planned and a VGC trip if we can get it at 7 months one year. But if we were only able to stay at BCV, I think we would just rent points instead.

    I think the categories are also split by current owners looking to add on vs new buyers (like me). Probably Category 1 has more current owners where Category 3 and even 2 are more new/prospective buyers. I wonder what % of resale is add on vs new member - that would impact the demand of Riviera.
     

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