jade1
I spend half my money on WDW, and waste the rest.
- Joined
- Dec 30, 2001
New 350 room hotel near Swan and Dolphin "The Swan Reserve”
- Thread starter rteetz
- Start date
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jade1
I spend half my money on WDW, and waste the rest.
- Joined
- Dec 30, 2001
Nobody said "always" a certain resale value. They currently carry a high resale value.
LOL shouted from the mountain tops over 10 years ago that resort prices will keep rising, as did many others.
And many of us (including LOL) continually invested in more DVC points to hedge against that.
If you think throwing $300 a night cash away would have been a wiser move over those 10 years ($2K a week, $20K), then good for you.
I have no idea why you think you have to carry the contracts to the end.
So your telling all these folks that just sold BWV contracts for about $100 on average in July/Aug/Sep-they did not have an asset?
Tell me what you think they paid per night on the trips they took after selling and getting this money back. $______________ (insert cost of dues at most).
BWV:
LSCHROW---$89-$29864-306-BWV-Dec-0/15, 0/16, 306/17, 306/18- sent 6/14, passed 7/3
Debbie Jean---$95-$14,250-150-BWV-Sep-0/16, 68/17, 150/18- sent 6/28, passed 7/12
RKS03---$95-$15776-150-BWV-Feb-0/16, 172/17, 128/18- sent 6/27, passed 7/13
w84no1---$92-$10390-100-BWV-Apr-0/16, 10/17, 100/18, 100/19-seller pays '17 MF- sent 6/30, passed 7/15
JackTMS---$103-$16976-150-BWV-Apr-0/16, 300/17, 150/18, 150/19 sent 6/26, passed 7/12
ywgckp---$89-$25126-275-BWV-Dec-141/16, 275/17, 275/18- sent 7/10, passed 7/25
Steph01002---$107-$19117-175-BWV-Feb-0/16, 0/17, 146/18, 175/19- sent 8/4, passed 8/16
Amanda&Mike---$100-$6850-60-BWV-Apr-0/16, 34/17, 60/18, 60/19- sent 8/3, passed 8/18
FamilyTime---$94-$36070-350-BWV-Oct-0/16, 350/17, 350/18- sent 8/5, passed 8/21
Taylor1428---$93-$22877-222-BWV-Jun-0/16, 222/17, 222/18- sent 8/11, passed 8/22
lbus42---$98-$14011-130-BWV-Aug-0/16, 0/17, 130/18, 130/19- sent 8/15, passed 8/25
w1kk3d---$98-$15225-150-BWV-Aug-0/16, 4/17, 150/18, 150/19- sent 8/23, passed 9/5
LadyLuck24---$110-$32182-270-BWV-Apr-74/16, 270/17, 270/18, 270/19- sent 9/1, addendum submitted 9/4 (broker put wrong contract # on contract)-passed 9/15
Chancery8---$120-$4387-30-BWV-Aug-0/16, 60/17, 30/18, 30/19- sent 9/15, passed 9/22
aokeefe---$126-$6745-50-BWV-Dec-0/16, 0/17, 50/18- sent 9/15, passed 9/22
Reddd.12.18—-$114-$14820-130-BWV-Aug- 35/17, 130/18, 130/19- sent 9/7. addendum submitted 9/14 (broker put wrong contract # on contract)-passed 9/15
Cyberc1978---$90-$15260-150-BWV-Mar-0/16, 52/17, 300/18, 150/19- sent 9/22, Passed 10/10
Rojo---$100-$17850-170-BWV-Oct-0/16, 0/17, 52/18, 170/19- sent 9/29, passed 10/10
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jade1
I spend half my money on WDW, and waste the rest.
- Joined
- Dec 30, 2001
Nice job.
Obviously your stuck at about $140 a night if you keep it, but that's getting to be value range.
Plus like you say, you could cash out if you want, dropping your actual cost dramatically.
writerguyfl
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jul 5, 2015
After thinking about this some more, I'll add some more potential brands for this hotel project. Tishman has worked with a variety of hotel groups, including: Starwood, Marriott, Hilton, Accor, InterContinental, and Hyatt.
Once the Marriott and Starwood frequent guest programs are merged in 2018, that group of potential guests will be well covered with existing Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin properties. To me, it makes more sense to choose a brand not represented by Marriott/Starwood. Doing that, you'd tap into a set of guests who will only stay within their favored hotel group. Additionally, you'd gain access to the National Sales Team of that hotel group. Although this 350 room hotel likely won't have convention facilities, the small meetings market is still a source of revenue.
I doubt Hilton Hotels would be in play, as they already have multiple options both on-property and just off-site at Bonnet Creek. Accor is probably not likely, either. They don't have a strong presence in North America and their Fairmont and Sofitel brands don't seem to fit this Disney location.
An InterContinental brand might work. Either a Crowne Plaza or InterContinental branded hotel is possible. If the nearby Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress didn't exist, I'd say a Hyatt Regency would work. Although a stretch, Hyatt could work using their Andaz brand.
A dark horse candidate would be Radisson Blu. Carlson Reizidor Hotels are eager to build their Radisson Blu brand. I'm sure Tishman could negotiate a great deal on branding and reservations fees, given the high profile location of this new hotel.
Finally, there's the possibility that this new hotel will not have any outward hotel branding. Although the Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin hotels are technically a Westin and a Sheraton, most guests don't know that fact. As long as the hotel meets the brand standards set in the franchise agreement, the name of the hotel doesn't need to carry the brand name. So the new hotel could be "Hotel X" and still be quietly connected with a brand from any hotel group.
Once the Marriott and Starwood frequent guest programs are merged in 2018, that group of potential guests will be well covered with existing Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin properties. To me, it makes more sense to choose a brand not represented by Marriott/Starwood. Doing that, you'd tap into a set of guests who will only stay within their favored hotel group. Additionally, you'd gain access to the National Sales Team of that hotel group. Although this 350 room hotel likely won't have convention facilities, the small meetings market is still a source of revenue.
I doubt Hilton Hotels would be in play, as they already have multiple options both on-property and just off-site at Bonnet Creek. Accor is probably not likely, either. They don't have a strong presence in North America and their Fairmont and Sofitel brands don't seem to fit this Disney location.
An InterContinental brand might work. Either a Crowne Plaza or InterContinental branded hotel is possible. If the nearby Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress didn't exist, I'd say a Hyatt Regency would work. Although a stretch, Hyatt could work using their Andaz brand.
A dark horse candidate would be Radisson Blu. Carlson Reizidor Hotels are eager to build their Radisson Blu brand. I'm sure Tishman could negotiate a great deal on branding and reservations fees, given the high profile location of this new hotel.
Finally, there's the possibility that this new hotel will not have any outward hotel branding. Although the Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin hotels are technically a Westin and a Sheraton, most guests don't know that fact. As long as the hotel meets the brand standards set in the franchise agreement, the name of the hotel doesn't need to carry the brand name. So the new hotel could be "Hotel X" and still be quietly connected with a brand from any hotel group.
dlavender
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- May 7, 2015
Well, you'd have to know what they paid for them, and deduct any selling costs.
I'll say this, then we could give the thread back to the good people on the DIS.
If you bought today, one of those 60 point BMV contracts at $100 pp, using a $6 pp maint fee cost, it would take you 19 years to break even. After those 19 years, there would be 6 years remaining on the contract. Most likely the value on that contract with only 6 years left would be very minimal. Especially if as we get closer to that time frame, people dump contracts, flooding the market (as they see shortly their contracts will be worth nothing).
What I am attempting to point out (mostly in vein), is that its not as cut and dry as "buy DVC now, save a ton, then sell this asset". I'm going to contend that that ship has pretty much sailed. But if a time machine came with the purchase of your DVC, let me borrow it.....
lockedoutlogic
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 26, 2007
Is it possible that they are angling for mixed use or timeshare?
...hotel operators love those as much as disney...it would be interesting to see the mouse reaction to something like that...
sachilles
DVC coming to this space soon
- Joined
- Jan 7, 2013
Values aren't for me, but comparing them to a motel 6 is a little over the edge I think. Motel 6's, even the clean ones are basic, basic, basic. The value rooms are basic, and somewhat comparable. However, a motel 6 will not get you a pool in most cases. It will not get you food on site. It will not get you food delivery on site. It will not get you basic transportation to your site. You are getting a basic place to sleep, but beyond that get services akin to basic corporate hotels.
My most recent disney experience was Disneyland this week. I get enough Marriott points per year to be "platinum elite".....so fancy. I was able to book 2 nights at the Fairfield Inn, which is just across the street from Disney land. My status got us a room upgrade that allowed us to watch the fireworks from the walkway outside our room. In fairness, despite being an older building, it was incredibly clean and well kept. The staff was competent, friendly and generally above average for the lodging industry. Room was basic but clean, my status got us into a suite, which had 2 queens, plus a mini living room with a pull out couch. I'd be more than happy if I was on the road, and this was the hotel I ended up at.
It was across the street from the gate. While we did have to cross the road at a controlled crosswalk, the total distance from room to the gate was less than any wdw room to transport walk I've had at a moderate.
My wife and I agreed though, we missed the disney bubble. Breakfast at the hotel had the news on, bringing us back to the real world. Walking to the park, we saw all kinds of real life situations you just don't see in the bubble. It was that little dose of reality, that I honestly was hoping to escape for a couple of days. That was the big difference.
Now to be fair, in Florida I think there are likely several non-disney lodging properties that are enough in the bubble to pass the test. I'm sure the Swan and Dolphin are likely there, and a few others near Disney Springs. I want to tune out on vacation, I need to tune out. While it's my failing that I have a tough time doing it outside the bubble, I find tangible value being within the bubble.
For us, the last 2 trips have used DVC points rental. Hard to pull the trigger on a DVC purchase, but in retrospect, if we keep going, it would have made sense to buy in. I don't how much longer we'll keep going. Schedule is becoming harder to work, with my son getting older and more involved in sports/activities. So I think points rental is the way to go for us. Let somebody else invest there money in our enjoyment....we'll help them pay some of the fees.
My most recent disney experience was Disneyland this week. I get enough Marriott points per year to be "platinum elite".....so fancy. I was able to book 2 nights at the Fairfield Inn, which is just across the street from Disney land. My status got us a room upgrade that allowed us to watch the fireworks from the walkway outside our room. In fairness, despite being an older building, it was incredibly clean and well kept. The staff was competent, friendly and generally above average for the lodging industry. Room was basic but clean, my status got us into a suite, which had 2 queens, plus a mini living room with a pull out couch. I'd be more than happy if I was on the road, and this was the hotel I ended up at.
It was across the street from the gate. While we did have to cross the road at a controlled crosswalk, the total distance from room to the gate was less than any wdw room to transport walk I've had at a moderate.
My wife and I agreed though, we missed the disney bubble. Breakfast at the hotel had the news on, bringing us back to the real world. Walking to the park, we saw all kinds of real life situations you just don't see in the bubble. It was that little dose of reality, that I honestly was hoping to escape for a couple of days. That was the big difference.
Now to be fair, in Florida I think there are likely several non-disney lodging properties that are enough in the bubble to pass the test. I'm sure the Swan and Dolphin are likely there, and a few others near Disney Springs. I want to tune out on vacation, I need to tune out. While it's my failing that I have a tough time doing it outside the bubble, I find tangible value being within the bubble.
For us, the last 2 trips have used DVC points rental. Hard to pull the trigger on a DVC purchase, but in retrospect, if we keep going, it would have made sense to buy in. I don't how much longer we'll keep going. Schedule is becoming harder to work, with my son getting older and more involved in sports/activities. So I think points rental is the way to go for us. Let somebody else invest there money in our enjoyment....we'll help them pay some of the fees.
I wonder what the Disney contract is with Marriott. I doubt Disney would let them put a Marriott Grand Vaction Club there if they can stop it.
We are assuming Marriott as it is Marriott controlled property now.
writerguyfl
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jul 5, 2015
I don't follow. While the Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin hotels are Starwood properties (which are now under Marriott), I don't believe that Marriott has any say in what happens to the adjacent property. The current hotels would be subject to the franchise agreements. Although it's technically possible, I've never heard of a franchise agreement that stipulated that nearby undeveloped land could only be within the current hotel group.
In this case, what can get built would depend on what the land lease agreement between Tishman and Disney says. I don't believe Marriott is involved in any fashion other than to offer their chains as possible brands for any new hotel.
lockedoutlogic
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 26, 2007
Marriott would have to be onboard because tishman wouldn't get ANOTHER management group for a hotel. It would be logistically impossible because hotel chain share logistics between property's adjacent. As all the disney ones do. Coronados housekeeping is based at all stars.
The build space is the present tennis courts for the Swolphin which is why we are all assuming Marriott is on board.
We were there a week later and were charged the discounted rate, and had to pay for parking (previously waived in years past). We checked in with our SPG concierge and he confirmed it was no longer waived for members, we were disappointed.
Editing to say we're platinum with both Marriott and SPG, we essentially live in hotels.
I didn't have a car, but what the heck? Why are folks getting different outcomes?
I pretty much have lived in hotels since I got my MBA at 21, I hear ya! Did ya'll pay on points? I did. Is that the difference?
Poop, that's gonna be an issue for my folks if they take out courts. Didn't even think of it.
lockedoutlogic
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 26, 2007
Um, apparently you could not-because that would mean its an asset.
I can see an angle on both sides of it. Since it's not something you have purchased outright.
Like your job (for those that have ever had one...). It's yours, it has a value, you may have a legal right under contract...but it isn't an "asset" because you ultimately have no say over where it goes and who gets it.
jade1
I spend half my money on WDW, and waste the rest.
- Joined
- Dec 30, 2001
Oh I can agree to that.
But there is a bottom line that seems to be very hard for some to grasp.
You said when you shouted 10 or so years ago, that WDW resort prices would keep climbing (kinda "duh" to me but whatev) that you should have taken bets.
Then used those "winnings" to afford a current mod-which the conversation was saying would be $200 to $300 a night soon.
All I said was, you took your own advice and purchased SSR, and you are paying around $140 a night (deluxe by the way) for the term. And many of us did the same thing. Thats without saying "I hate Iger, its no fun anymore, they took too long to add anything, other things cost too much" and deciding to sell.
If you did that and sold-you would get all of your original investment, and likely some of your dues back.
That would drop you from $140 a night to what $_________
But even without selling-$140 a night for deluxe instead of $275 or so for mods?
jade1
I spend half my money on WDW, and waste the rest.
- Joined
- Dec 30, 2001
This had nothing to do with buying today. But these folks are at least recovering their purchase price since it's (BWV) selling at the highest level ever.
It was taking advice from 10 years ago, and how that has worked out. Owners are indeed selling currently-as you can obviously see. That is an asset to them and reduces their room night cost much further than they had anticipated if they stay another 30 years.
But since you suggested.
If I didn't have DVC currently-I would indeed buy BWV today for $100. Actually my DBIL just added 250 points there. I might add more as well.
$7,500 gets me a week there. (Heck rack rate is $3K-try paying that for 19 years, esp more each year. That's $57,000 instead of $16,000.) Then $450 a year in dues for the stays. My guess is with Star Wars and TSL, GOTG and Rat all in walking distance, it will be $150 a point-probably within 5 years.
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Roxyfire
Is butter a carb?
- Joined
- Jul 1, 2015
I've said it before and I'll say it again: What's good for the stock market is not good for regular people. They've shown this time and time again. This time I'm going to profit off the bad decisions of the American people. Here's hoping I can get out before the whole thing comes crashing down. Then maybe I can afford one of those fancy Princess Rooms at POR, too!
writerguyfl
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jul 5, 2015
It's not unusual for a company to own multiple, competing hotel brands within the same metropolitan area. As long as key personnel at each property only have access to proprietary information about their individual hotel, hotel groups do not typically see that setup as a problem.
A 350-room hotel will require it's own full-time staff. That's especially true if this new hotel is positioned as a luxury property. As such, any staff overlap with the Walt Disney World Swan and/or Dolphin is largely irrelevant. If a guest has a problem at this new hotel, it won't go over well if she or he is told: "Sorry. You can't speak to a manager. She's working at the Dolphin today."
Regardless, even competing brands can still benefit from some consolidated services. The new hotel can still outsource their laundry services to Swan/Dolphin (provided they have that capacity). Other services like security, telephone operators, or valet could be outsourced, as well.
For example, one hotel I used to work had our own laundry facilities. Our main competitor was a Marriott that was quite literally about 120 feet away. They didn't have a laundry, so they contracted with us to handle their dry cleaning services.
Certainly, it's possible that the new hotel will fall under the Marriott/Starwood umbrella. But, if Tishman believes that financial benefits of selecting a competing brand far outweigh the convenience of staying within, I don't think they'd hesitate.
A 350-room hotel will require it's own full-time staff. That's especially true if this new hotel is positioned as a luxury property. As such, any staff overlap with the Walt Disney World Swan and/or Dolphin is largely irrelevant. If a guest has a problem at this new hotel, it won't go over well if she or he is told: "Sorry. You can't speak to a manager. She's working at the Dolphin today."
Regardless, even competing brands can still benefit from some consolidated services. The new hotel can still outsource their laundry services to Swan/Dolphin (provided they have that capacity). Other services like security, telephone operators, or valet could be outsourced, as well.
For example, one hotel I used to work had our own laundry facilities. Our main competitor was a Marriott that was quite literally about 120 feet away. They didn't have a laundry, so they contracted with us to handle their dry cleaning services.
Certainly, it's possible that the new hotel will fall under the Marriott/Starwood umbrella. But, if Tishman believes that financial benefits of selecting a competing brand far outweigh the convenience of staying within, I don't think they'd hesitate.
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