Off the cusp, what does your "Gut" tell you on DVC purchase

[HallDisney2019]

From an economical standpoint, taking into consideration two visits a year (each visit maybe a week long), time left on the contract (i.e. SSR is 2054), typically staying in a 1-bdrm, what would be your gut purchase?

How many points would you suggest (do not need to stay at the really expensive resorts). Let's use the example, each visit may be OKW, then CCR, AKV,

Say we would visit March/April and then October/December timeframe

I understand there are many factors (i.e. time of visit) which impact the decision, but speaking to fellow DVC members and using their experience, what would your "gut" tell you? I also know buying on the resale will limit my stay to the original 13 (at least right now)

Thanks

 

[JETSDAD]

From an economical standpoint, taking into consideration two visits a year (each visit maybe a week long), time left on the contract (i.e. SSR is 2054), typically staying in a 1-bdrm, what would be your gut purchase?

How many points would you suggest (do not need to stay at the really expensive resorts). Let's use the example, each visit may be OKW, then CCR, AKV,

Say we would visit March/April and then October/December timeframe

I understand there are many factors (i.e. time of visit) which impact the decision, but speaking to fellow DVC members and using their experience, what would your "gut" tell you? I also know buying on the resale will limit my stay to the original 13 (at least right now)

Thanks

It really is just a numbers game rather than a gut feeling. I'd recommend taking a look at the point charts for the resorts that you would most likely want to stay at. For two 1 week trips in 1 bedroom units in the times that you mention you probably would need a minimum of 400 points. If you even want CCV then you're closer to 475 points. There are ways of doing it cheaper (do 5 nights avoiding weekends, mixing in studios, etc) but for what you mentioned that's about where you would need to be.

 

[Sandisw]

Your October/December timeframe will most likely always be your home resort as that is a pretty busy time. Although the 1 bedrooms are a bit easier to get at 7 months,

With SSR and OKW being places you’d want to be, Id go with one of those as it’s a good mix of buy in cost, MFs, and point charts

 

[Marionnette]

From an economical standpoint, taking into consideration two visits a year (each visit maybe a week long), time left on the contract (i.e. SSR is 2054), typically staying in a 1-bdrm, what would be your gut purchase?

How many points would you suggest (do not need to stay at the really expensive resorts). Let's use the example, each visit may be OKW, then CCR, AKV,

Say we would visit March/April and then October/December timeframe

I understand there are many factors (i.e. time of visit) which impact the decision, but speaking to fellow DVC members and using their experience, what would your "gut" tell you? I also know buying on the resale will limit my stay to the original 13 (at least right now)

Thanks

Buying resale will limit you to the L14 resorts until 2042 when 5 of those resorts expire. Then you’ll be down to 9, including SSR. Don’t buy expecting DVC to backpedal on that decision. And when it does go down to 9, two of them (AUL and VGC) will not be at Disney World. That will make it more difficult to book a non-home resort at 7 months. Keep in mind that PVB (Poly) does not have 1BR villas, which could limit your choices that much more.

The conventional wisdom is to buy SSR (or any resort) because you would not mind staying there. I will go a step further and say buy a resort because that’s where you want to stay. Chances are good that you will be staying there half of your time if 50% of your trips occur during Fall Frenzy. Forget CCV in December. The number of villas is small and those who own at CCV have trouble booking it at 11 months for Christmas time.

Look at the 2021 points charts to determine how many you will need at your home resort. Expect it to change for 2022. DVC has been trying to balance points with demand but they can only make incremental changes from one year to the next. I expect to see another adjustment in December. You may need more points for October/December trips than you first thought. An extra 10% above what you think you will need is not a bad idea.

Finally, even though you didn’t ask, don’t buy DVC with the expectation that you will be able to bank and borrow enough points to book a reservation. Or that you will just rent out points if you want to skip a year. If these past few months have taught us anything, it’s that there are no guarantees. The rental market is fickle and DVC can impose restrictions on borrowing points.

 

[Rob Huff]

Echoing what was above, my gut didn't tell me much about our DVC purchase. Spreadsheets did.

And the October-December advice above is really essential. If you ever think you might want to stay in a studio instead of a 1BR, you're almost certainly locked into your home resort at that time of year, so make sure you really like where you buy!

FWIW, we found plenty of flexibility in January and February booking options for studios. But again, that's only an issue if you think you might want to stay in a studio in the future.

 

[Minniesgal]

I wouldn't buy listening to my gut, it's a head first purchase.

For how many points I worked out my aspiration next few years trips then looked up the points charts to see how many points that would be. Then looked at the price per point and decided if we could afford that.

As for the where we live by the buy where you want to stay rule and I'm glad we did as after a few years swapping out we now can no longer be bothered with 7 months competition and are happy to book home at 11 months. We have two homes we love so that does us. i totally would buy the resort I intend to stay in as thats where you will be most especially October/November

 

[crisi]

If you NEED to save money (i.e. are looking for economical), DVC is a poor bet (and that's my gut). A simple pandemic could have you out a year or twos worth of points - for some people it might turn into almost three if they had banked points already, are at the wrong point in their use year, and decide that hunkering down and avoiding Disney is best given their risk profile. Points are much less likely to rent easily for the amount of money they did a year ago - due to both availability issues, and people discovering the risk. That's going to change a lot of people's calculations on a break even. Prior to this DVC carried risk - but it was risk people were willing to ignore - that a trip would need to be cancelled late in a use year on short notice - or just late in the use year after the banking window had passed. There are more economical options.

DVC is for someone who can spend MORE at Disney than they were previously spending, who don't mind staying at the same resort every year (although depending on how flexible you are - including how open you are to stalking availability - its likely you will have an opportunity to stay at every resort in nearly every rooms type), who can plan eleven months in advance). Previously, this was not quite true - if you were disciplined about it, you could make a case that the kitchen saved you money - the problem was more trips than you'd usually take, taking guests, and - without a room bill - spending more money per trip. Now, the reality of lost points (always a factor, seldom really calculated in) is there.

If you need a one or two bedroom (particularly if you have more than five people regularly so you really need a two bedroom) DVC might start to make economic sense, as the options for more than five through CRO are limited. Even then, you should make sure that DVC is the right choice, as DVC is only a good deal if you need to - and are willing to pay the premium for - being on site. Had it been available when we bought, I'd be tempted by Wyndam's Bonnet Creek.

 

[glamdring269]

If you're not all in you can still come out ahead in many cases simply by becoming a renter. Get a few good contacts that you can trust and over time you're basically an owner by proxy.