Podcast Crowd info vs. Touring Plans - which is correct?

[HondaFam]

Hi all,

Long time, first time. Is it a no-no to schedule a day at a park that is having an evening party if we don't plan on going to the party?

We are headed to WDW at the end of September and will be there the 27th to Oct. 5. I was listening to the latest podcast today. During the not-so-scary discussion the team talked about how some folks have gotten angry in the past when they went to MK on the day of the party (not knowing about it). I took this to mean that the crowds were more than they bargained for. However, I always use Touring Plans to chose our park days. It is interesting that, during our timeframe, the least busiest days at MK (1/10) are days that the Halloween party is taking place.

Does anyone have any insight on this? I'm not sure how to read crowd expectations for the first week of October. I know SWGE is an unknown part of the equation. Most resources say October has become a very busy time. We were there at the end of February/first of March this year and based on Touring Plans, October should be less crowded. Not sure what to believe. Thanks.

 

[SorcererHeidi]

Hi all,

Long time, first time. Is it a no-no to schedule a day at a park that is having an evening party if we don't plan on going to the party?

We are headed to WDW at the end of September and will be there the 27th to Oct. 5. I was listening to the latest podcast today. During the not-so-scary discussion the team talked about how some folks have gotten angry in the past when they went to MK on the day of the party (not knowing about it). I took this to mean that the crowds were more than they bargained for. However, I always use Touring Plans to chose our park days. It is interesting that, during our timeframe, the least busiest days at MK (1/10) are days that the Halloween party is taking place.

Does anyone have any insight on this? I'm not sure how to read crowd expectations for the first week of October. I know SWGE is an unknown part of the equation. Most resources say October has become a very busy time. We were there at the end of February/first of March this year and based on Touring Plans, October should be less crowded. Not sure what to believe. Thanks.

@HondaFam - I can't comment a lot on crowd levels, etc., since I never used a touring plan or crowd calendar when I was gong every year, and now I haven't been in almost 7 years.

However - the 'people leaving angry on party nights is they're not upset at the crowds (per se) but they're angry they have to leave, and the MK closes earlier - or at least earlier than they probably expected. Party guests can get in with their party ticket at 4, then have to obtain a wristband to stay in the park past 6. Day guests (the angry ones) have to leave at 6, and the party starts at 7, after all day guests have been "swept". I'm sure some of the party guests may be angry later, if the parties are way oversold and it's massively crowded and long waits, but that's the party guests themselves, NOT the ones you see leaving at 6, if you're coming in then.

I personally have, in the past, used my party ticket, and entrance, as a MK Day (just starting at 4 in the afternoon) instead of burning a ticket day on that day, or gone to the MK in the morning, then park hopped to say Epcot later in the day to finish out my day, when MK closed to day guests, if I had a park hopper. Both with full knowledge of the limitations/drawbacks on each. And of course, WAY before the massive crowds the parties, and even the regular parks draw now. Although that is a big part of the reason why I stopped going annually, even way back then.

Hope that's at least a bit helpful.

 

[Princess Jes]

Heidi covered it all, but i would say, in summary, if you have a hopper, going to the Mk on a party day is a great idea and one that often gets recommended.
If not, be aware that you'll have an early close to the park, so either go in knowing that or choose a different park for the day.

 

[HondaFam]

Heidi and Jes - Thanks! This makes more sense now. We don’t normally stay late in the parks so I think we can stick with our plans as they are.

 

[_19disnA]

Many older threads about 3rd party crowd estimates. Honestly, even Disney has NO idea how many local people with annual passes or those staying at non-disney hotels will decide which park to visit on any given day. 3rd parties probably use historical data and perhaps known events, but they are still as likely to be right as wrong on their estimates.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Not a lot to add - I think the main things have been covered well but just wanted to add that if you go in knowing it is a party day and that you will have to leave early it can actually be a really good day to go crowd wise for the early part to the day as people who don't want to "burn" a day ticket on a park that is closing early so crowds may actually be a bit lighter - at least until like 4pm when people that only have a party ticket can get in ...so just be mindful the evening can be a bit crowded as you have that overlap of people, but prior to 4 it can actually be a bit lighter

 

[hertamaniac]

Many older threads about 3rd party crowd estimates. Honestly, even Disney has NO idea how many local people with annual passes or those staying at non-disney hotels will decide which park to visit on any given day. 3rd parties probably use historical data and perhaps known events, but they are still as likely to be right as wrong on their estimates.

Yep. When we decide to visit a park as a local AP, we don't project it to Disney; we just show up so I don't know how they could quantify that.

 

[ELLH]

Going back some years the suggestion was always to avoid the park the night of an event because of crowds. I think so many people do that now that the parks are actually not crowded on party days. So then you're left with the reason to not go being based on money. If you are paying for a day at the park you'd likely want to get your money's worth by staying much longer than they allow you to on a party day. Getting kicked out of the various lands at 6 or 7 pm when you had planned to stay until much later is a big issue, obviously. If you have a park hopper or simply the luxury or even desire to only stay until the early park closing then you're good to go. At least, until the tide turns again and party days become more crowded again due to this tactic.

 

[rteetz]

Many older threads about 3rd party crowd estimates. Honestly, even Disney has NO idea how many local people with annual passes or those staying at non-disney hotels will decide which park to visit on any given day. 3rd parties probably use historical data and perhaps known events, but they are still as likely to be right as wrong on their estimates.

Actually I’d say Disney has more data than ever in order to estimate where people are going. Disney can use dining reservations and fastpasses as a way to gauge how many people are coming. They also have the date based ticket system now. Disney knows how many people are expected to show up to the theme parks on a given day. Now those tickets don’t specify which park exactly but they know about how many will be on property going to the parks.

 

[Lindsey17]

Gotta be honest I didn't read all the replies so forgive me if this is repetitive. Last year we went while the Halloween parties were going on and it did seem to lighten the crowds that day. Having to leave at 6 wasn't a big deal for us because that day also happened to be EHM in the morning for MK as well. We got in at rope drop and did everything we wanted by 2:00. So we basically circled back to my son's favorite rides and left MK around 5. Party guests can start going in at 4 so we did see a spike then, but I wouldn't let it deter you from your plan. We also had park hopper so we decided to hop on the monorail to Epcot.
I think as long as you're aware that you'll need to leave at 6 you should be fine. Plus if you're using Touring Plans anyway you'll know exactly how much you'll be able to get done in that time frame. I found TP to be pretty accurate on our last trip. There were a few things we never got to do that were on our list, but that's because we didn't follow it to a T so more our own doing than theirs.

 

[_19disnA]

Even if Disney has some internal data, they don't make it public or share with 3rd parties. Basing your park plans on 3rd party sites the OP is asking about is just a waste of time.

 

[SA mom]

Touring Plans has been very accurate in our experience. They use millions of pieces of historical data as well as hire people to be in the parks to count the numbers coming off attractions. There was a great interview with Len Testa last year on one of the podcasts. Their wait time estimates are usually spot on. I think they use mathematical algorithms and magic.

 

[Keckster]

Touring Plans crowd calendar is based on historical ride times and not number of people in the park. I was at early October 2018 MNSSHP and it felt crowded for a party night. Was also there during that same day and was still fairly crowded. Some vacationers stay way party nights because of the earlier pre-party close time.