Poll: Guess what the first Riviera resale contracts listing price

[stewart715]

I voted between 125-150. I think initially it will try to be sold high but i think educated buyers will be offering less than list price. I still think DVC will be the ones to hold the bar high on this one. They want to keep the resale price high so that they don't lose business -- Their tactic will be - why buy resale at $150 per point, be locked into only Riviera when you can buy direct at $188 per point and have access to all the resorts and all the perks for just $38 more per point. Makes direct look like a great deal

That's really a great point. And another reason it will drive it down. For two weeks a year, you'd need about 200 points. That's $37,600. Resale at 150, that would be $30,000. A difference of $7,600. The average family of 4 would save $1,000 per year on Gold AP (yes, I know it can go away) after buying direct. With dining and merchandise discounts, they are broken even within 5-6 years (and get to book at all 14 resorts) with over 40 years left on the contract and I have all direct points. If I'm thinking of DRR, I'm buying direct at that point...and it's not really close.

 

[crvetter]

That's really a great point. And another reason it will drive it down. For two weeks a year, you'd need about 200 points. That's $37,600. Resale at 150, that would be $30,000. A difference of $7,600. The average family of 4 would save $1,000 per year on Gold AP (yes, I know it can go away) after buying direct. With dining and merchandise discounts, they are broken even within 5-6 years (and get to book at all 14 resorts) with over 40 years left on the contract and I have all direct points. If I'm thinking of DRR, I'm buying direct at that point...and it's not really close.

This is 100% a valid argument, which is why people say buying Copper Creek Resale right now is not a great choice because of the reasons you quoted. Once Copper Creek goes to the unsold price of 210 suddenly those resale prices look good at 140. I would suspect that while Riviera is actively being sold buyers who don't have direct points yet wouldn't be as inclined to buy Riviera resale simply for that reason. However, those with direct points and want an Epcot/HS resort might be willing to buy (someone is buying the Copper Creek resales they disappear) since they have no opportunity to recoup those savings lost when buying direct (already getting the discounts). So I think once Riviera goes to sold-out status in 2-3 years it suddenly becomes a lot more attractive and the perks (discounts, etc) get dwarfed by the savings of buying resale.

 

[ray3127]

All other contracts have access to 93% of DVC resorts.

I think you're playing a little fast & loose with this statement, and therefore overvaluing the 7-month window. The fact is that many resorts and room types are not available at 7 months ... VGC is never available at 7 months ... Many studios are not available at 7 months for large swaths of the year ... Etc ... The 7 month window is nice, but it is no longer a prime feature of DVC (unless you're a DVC Guide, of course). As the number of points in the system grows, this will only continue to get worse.

So while technically all other contracts will have access to 93% of DVC resorts, in actuality they don't have full access to all DVC rooms at 7 months. As a result, people are buying where they want to stay more and more ... especially resale buyers, which is the market we are talking about here.

I think the conclusion this got to is the right one--it's more of a bet of what RVA will end up being. If it's an in-demand hit, then the resale points will be as valuable as other in-demand hits, because if you want to stay at RVA then you better own at RVA. If the gondolas are a flop, and/or the resort doesn't live up to the hype, then the value of resale points will be significantly reduced.

I said $125-$150, because if I had to bet today I'd say people love it ... but I'm with you in that I'm not convinced yet. I need to see it all in action before I decide for myself. But the main value driver will be the overall success/desirability of RVA, as well as its rack rates, not the resale restrictions.

 

[DougEMG]

If the Riviera proves to be a popular resort, then resale prices eventually will settle to somewhere just below BLT. No matter how popular the resort is, resell buyers (cause they are all cheap and want a deal) will want a discount on the price because of the resale restrictions. For the resort to be popular will require the gondolas to work perfectly and will require that resale owners at the Riviera are able to book rooms there when they want. On the other hand if the gondolas don't work as expected or resale owners at the Riviera are getting shut out of even getting a room, then resale prices could end up in the OKW/SSR range.

Right now we have two big unknowns, transportation and how bookings will end up working. Until we see how those work out, I think it is too hard to predict what the resale prices will settle at.

 

[DougEMG]

the main value driver will be the overall success/desirability of RVA, as well as its rack rates, not the resale restrictions.

While I agree with you that the main driver will be the overall success of RVA, the resale restriction will have an impact on resale prices. Maybe it might be as low as $10/point, but RVA resale prices will be lower with the restriction in place than without the restriction in place.

What will be interesting to see is if DVC allows someone to upgrade their resale purchase to the same as a direct purchase and how much they charge for that.

 

[stewart715]

The current drivers of resale pricing:

1. lack of direct benefits
2. years remaining on contract
3. cash rack rates
4. desirability
5. and now no trading restrictions

According to the current rate chart, the cash rates appear to be in line with the point chart (in terms of ratio of points to dollars). So, we know the value of the first 3 (because we have been dealing with them for a while now). With that, I would place DRR at $150pp resale. The reason I place it a little lower than CCV is because the DRR point chart is expensive. You need nearly 25% more points to stay at DRR than you do at BWV.

Now we have to take into account desirability. This can push it down anywhere to $125pp up to $175pp. Let's say it has average desirability. That leaves it at $150pp.

Now add in no trading. Does it stay at $150? Does it drop to $100? How much is no trading worth. That is the real question. My guess is its worth no less than $25pp, which puts DRR at $125pp resale. That represents at least a 33% off direct price for a 50 year resort. Sounds reasonable to me, but I guess we will find out in a year.

 

[JETSDAD]

So very true. This entire poll is essentially an opinion poll on if you think Riviera will be "okay, good, great, amazing."

It actually has nothing to do with how the resort turns out...that would be more of a long term pricing of resale This was about the first contract to hit the market. The first contracts that show up on the resale market will likely be in the 3-6 month range and nobody who buys at 180+ is going to turn around in a few months and list it under $100/pt.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

How people think DRR will sell to a similar price as CCV is beyond me. It economically makes zero sense. This honestly isn't that hard. If you want to get the real value, take $165 as a base price (approx. CCV and PVB) and then add a multiplier for % of reservations that are booked at home resort only. How many CCV/PVB owners book only at CCV and PVB? My guess is not 100% or even 80%. Say it's 75%, then $125 may make sense for DRR. DRR would sell for a little over $150 if not for restrictions. With restrictions, no chance.

DVC is a comparison of buying in and paying dues vs paying for cash resort stays via Disney resorts.

Every resort has buyers that only want to stay there. Every resort has buyers that buy because it's the one that DVC is selling at the time. The Riviera resale buyer will be more educated and will need to have a plan to stay there every time or to rent out the reservation and pay cash for something somewhere else. That is a reason I believe the resale will not be as popular as it would otherwise be as it won't be as appealing to as many people as the current resorts have been but I think your numbers are far to low IMO when you compare to what it actually needs to be compared to - Disney resort cash rates.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Interesting data from the poll. Over 75% of us more knowledgeable DVCers think Riviera will hit the resale market above $125 pp, and over 50% think over $150 pp. With incentives running this isn't a huge hit to value until there is more resale Riviera supply to match resale demand.

It is a question about the first listed price. Usually that means a loan so the seller will be trying to get as much out as possible. Even if no loan they will not want to take such a hit. The more complicated question is where it will settle in once the resort is sold out or even a year or more after the first resale starts hitting the market. We also still haven't gotten the word of what DVC plans to allow resale contracts to become qualified.

I'd still hate to be a Riviera buyer and needing to sell quickly - or at all.

 

[stewart715]

It actually has nothing to do with how the resort turns out...that would be more of a long term pricing of resale This was about the first contract to hit the market. The first contracts that show up on the resale market will likely be in the 3-6 month range and nobody who buys at 180+ is going to turn around in a few months and list it under $100/pt.

True, but they can list it for $165 all they like. Doesn't mean it will sell. Ultimately, someone who is in a pinch will break down and we'll see what the real market is within a year.

 

[ScubaCat]

I'm changing DRR to RVA. It's now official.

 

[stewart715]

I'm changing DRR to RVA. It's now official.

But here's the thing: I started saying RVA ever since I saw Disney use it in the DVC Explorer. But then I saw them use DRR in the image name of the Riviera image header (drr-riviera-resort). Which is it?! Haha

https://cdn5.parksmedia.wdprapps.di...esort/Riviera-resort-Vignette_02_1860x180.png

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I'm changing DRR to RVA. It's now official.

How does "Disney's Riviera Resort" become RVA? (I know I'm missing something)

 

[stewart715]

How does "Disney's Riviera Resort" become RVA? (I know I'm missing something)

RiVierA I guess? Probably because none of the other DVC resort abbreviations contain the words Disney or Resort. So all they’re left with is the word Riviera.

 

[Katie L]

RiVierA I guess? Probably because none of the other DVC resort abbreviations contain the words Disney or Resort. So all they’re left with is the word Riviera.

Other than SSR? That is R for resort and not something else right?

Still RVA is an annoying one to come up with an acronym that makes any sort of sense...

 

[stewart715]

Other than SSR? That is R for resort and not something else right?

Well, ya got me there.

 

[Katie L]

Well, ya got me there.

You genuinely had me a questioning if the R meant something else.

 

[stewart715]

You genuinely had me a questioning if the R meant something else.

Saratoga SpRings? :/

 

[ScubaCat]

But here's the thing: I started saying RVA ever since I saw Disney use it in the DVC Explorer. But then I saw them use DRR in the image name of the Riviera image header (drr-riviera-resort). Which is it?! Haha

https://cdn5.parksmedia.wdprapps.di...esort/Riviera-resort-Vignette_02_1860x180.png

I saw that. I actually wanted it to start with "R" for the ROFR thread so it would be easier to sort. Maybe we should use RIV just to be altogether different from the DVC site.

 

[ScubaCat]

Saratoga SpRings? :/

Exactly!