POT (Proof of Time) Race Equivalency Cutoff Confirmed Times

[FFigawi]

That is exactly what worries me. I guess my best bet is to run a better time aka fast enough to get me in an earlier Dopey corrals placement! Half Marathon under 1:53 here I come

Your best bet is to get the fastest PoT you can, and then drop back to her (or have her drop back to you) as needed.

 

[DopeyBadger]

3) If you’re running Dopey your corral will be set by your proof of time. You won’t enter a separate time estimate for the 5k & 10k. You’ll only have to enter DDs estimated paces.

That is exactly what worries me. I guess my best bet is to run a better time aka fast enough to get me in an earlier Dopey corrals placement! Half Marathon under 1:53 here I come

FYI, they changed the Dopey 5k/10k corral assignment procedure for 2019:

You do provide a 5k/10k anticipated pace. No idea if they continue this for 2020.

 

[camaker]

FYI, they changed the Dopey 5k/10k corral assignment procedure for 2019:

You do provide a 5k/10k anticipated pace. No idea if they continue this for 2020.

That’s what I get for just running Goofy this year! Thanks for the correction!

 

[flav]

Thank you both. Finger crossed they ask for the 2020 Dopey. It seems more fair like that because one may run different paces on short and long distances.

 

[GollyGadget]

I have a somewhat off-topic question but it is topic adjacent so I thought this would be the best place to ask it. I'm running my first challenge next month. I know rD does not announce the 10K corrals ahead of time, but is there any historical information I can use to guess at what it might be?

For example, which HM corrals correspond to which 10K corrals? Is Corral A&B for the HM in Corral A for 10K?

 

[DopeyBadger]

I have a somewhat off-topic question but it is topic adjacent so I thought this would be the best place to ask it. I'm running my first challenge next month. I know rD does not announce the 10K corrals ahead of time, but is there any historical information I can use to guess at what it might be?

For example, which HM corrals correspond to which 10K corrals? Is Corral A&B for the HM in Corral A for 10K?

I did an analysis in 2017 and came to the following guess:



This was based on the 2017 Marathon Weekend Dopey runners. Just plug your HM POT into a standard race equivalency calculator and see what pace the 5k/10k comes out to as equivalent.

The problem is the distribution of 10k solo runners and whatever they chose as their "estimated time" is probably going to be the biggest influence on corral location for challenge runners. If 6000 10k solo runners register and 5500 say an estimate of 7 min/mile, then you're going to be hard pressed to see many challenge runners also included in "A". However, if something like that did occur, then they may just drop the number of corrals down from 6 to 3. Can't be positive why they did that for 2019 MW 5k this year (from 6 down to 3), but it's a hypothesis. But I'd say if you're looking for a VERY rough guess, then the above chart is a reasonable guess.

 

[GollyGadget]

I did an analysis in 2017 and came to the following guess:

View attachment 375872

This was based on the 2017 Marathon Weekend Dopey runners. Just plug your HM POT into a standard race equivalency calculator and see what pace the 5k/10k comes out to as equivalent.

The problem is the distribution of 10k solo runners and whatever they chose as their "estimated time" is probably going to be the biggest influence on corral location for challenge runners. If 6000 10k solo runners register and 5500 say an estimate of 7 min/mile, then you're going to be hard pressed to see many challenge runners also included in "A". However, if something like that did occur, then they may just drop the number of corrals down from 6 to 3. Can't be positive why they did that for 2019 MW 5k this year (from 6 down to 3), but it's a hypothesis. But I'd say if you're looking for a VERY rough guess, then the above chart is a reasonable guess.

Thanks for the insight! I know everything is really just a best guess at this point but I appreciate having something.

Interesting comment about the self-seeding of 5/10K runners. There's a large local race around here that does that and it DOES NOT WORK AT ALL. Hopefully the Disney runners are more honest. In my experience, people just pick the fastest time so that they can have a less crowded course...even though runners not being seeded correctly causes more congestion. I get why those distances don't require POT but it would be nice if they did. If it's your first race, then you start at the back (or maybe at the corral behind your self-selected time).

 

[Bree]

Thanks for the insight! I know everything is really just a best guess at this point but I appreciate having something.

Interesting comment about the self-seeding of 5/10K runners. There's a large local race around here that does that and it DOES NOT WORK AT ALL. Hopefully the Disney runners are more honest. In my experience, people just pick the fastest time so that they can have a less crowded course...even though runners not being seeded correctly causes more congestion. I get why those distances don't require POT but it would be nice if they did. If it's your first race, then you start at the back (or maybe at the corral behind your self-selected time).

And what makes it worse is that it’s plastered all over blogs and social media to pick the fastest time even if you aren’t that fast to give you cushion for time and shorter character lines.

 

[AFwifelife]

Thinking ahead to W&D registration. My husband has a 46:15 10k and a 1:46:52 half which are pretty equal but I’m wondering what’s the best to submit for him. Do I take the calculation error out of the equation and submit the half or submit the 10k that has a slightly faster pace?

 

[DopeyBadger]

Thinking ahead to W&D registration. My husband has a 46:15 10k and a 1:46:52 half which are pretty equal but I’m wondering what’s the best to submit for him. Do I take the calculation error out of the equation and submit the half or submit the 10k that has a slightly faster pace?

If they keep the same system, then both of those are Corral A assignments. A 46:15 10k converts to a 1:42:03 using a Riegel 1.06. So the 10k is the "better" time to submit.

 

[BearsMom2011]

I have seen a lot of RunDisney runner talk that you must submit a 10K time of 1:14 or faster to place out of the HUGE F corral that is part of every Half Marathon now. OP shows 1:15 as the cutoff. My goal is to be in Corral E but my current 10K PR is 1:15:43. Im working on a 1:14 but it would be great to not worry about getting down quite that far!

 

[DopeyBadger]

I have seen a lot of RunDisney runner talk that you must submit a 10K time of 1:14 or faster to place out of the HUGE F corral that is part of every Half Marathon now. OP shows 1:15 as the cutoff. My goal is to be in Corral E but my current 10K PR is 1:15:43. Im working on a 1:14 but it would be great to not worry about getting down quite that far!

This chart I provided in the OP was received via email from Track Shack Events on August 2nd, 2018:

*********

Here is the email correspondence:

Hi,

I'm a coach with several athletes participating in different Marathon Weekend events. I'm interested in getting more information about the Proof of Time cutoffs. Could you tell me the time necessary for each of the different submittable POT distances for the Half Marathon, Marathon, and Dopey that would equate to the necessary converted time?

For instance, for the Half Marathon - Could you tell me the necessary 10k, 12k, 15k, and 10 mile times that equate to a 2:45 Half Marathon using the race equivalency calculator you plan to use for the 2019 Marathon Weekend?

For the Marathon and Dopey (and whether they're different?) - the necessary 10 mile and HM time that equate to a 5:30 Marathon using the race equivalency calculator you plan to use for the 2019 Marathon Weekend?

This information will be helpful to me as I plan out my runner's Fall schedules and give them advice on how to proceed when submitting information for their POT.

Thanks in advance for any help you can give!

And their reply:

Hi William,

Thanks for your inquiry about the Proof of Time cutoffs to help your runners as they train for the 2019 Marathon weekend. Based on the race equivalency calculator that we will be using for the 2019 WDW Marathon and Half Marathon, below are the time cutoffs that equate to the 2:45 half marathon and the 5:30 marathon times. Note that for Dopey participants, we use the Marathon cutoff times.

As a reminder, races used as proof of time must be from an officially timed race reflecting results after January 1, 2017, and must be one of the distances listed above. Proof of time must be provided by October 9, 2018.

Please feel free to contact us if you have any additional questions.

Thank you,

Track Shack Events on behalf of runDisney

*********

The other chart seen in the OP (seen below) is one I made using extrapolated values from other runner's conversions using what appears to be the runDisney standard calculation method. It is not perfect, but very close.

So based on the information that I have at this moment, I am being led to believe the HM POT cutoff using a 10k for corral E is a 1:15:00. I have no reason to believe at this time that Marathon Weekend was a unique calculation given Wine and Dine 2018 also followed the same calculation as far as I can tell. Although, if you can provide me a source for the discrepancy I'm willing to change the OP.

 

[BearsMom2011]

This chart I provided in the OP was received via email from Track Shack Events on August 2nd, 2018:

*********

Here is the email correspondence:

Hi,

I'm a coach with several athletes participating in different Marathon Weekend events. I'm interested in getting more information about the Proof of Time cutoffs. Could you tell me the time necessary for each of the different submittable POT distances for the Half Marathon, Marathon, and Dopey that would equate to the necessary converted time?

For instance, for the Half Marathon - Could you tell me the necessary 10k, 12k, 15k, and 10 mile times that equate to a 2:45 Half Marathon using the race equivalency calculator you plan to use for the 2019 Marathon Weekend?

For the Marathon and Dopey (and whether they're different?) - the necessary 10 mile and HM time that equate to a 5:30 Marathon using the race equivalency calculator you plan to use for the 2019 Marathon Weekend?

This information will be helpful to me as I plan out my runner's Fall schedules and give them advice on how to proceed when submitting information for their POT.

Thanks in advance for any help you can give!

And their reply:

Hi William,

Thanks for your inquiry about the Proof of Time cutoffs to help your runners as they train for the 2019 Marathon weekend. Based on the race equivalency calculator that we will be using for the 2019 WDW Marathon and Half Marathon, below are the time cutoffs that equate to the 2:45 half marathon and the 5:30 marathon times. Note that for Dopey participants, we use the Marathon cutoff times.

As a reminder, races used as proof of time must be from an officially timed race reflecting results after January 1, 2017, and must be one of the distances listed above. Proof of time must be provided by October 9, 2018.

Please feel free to contact us if you have any additional questions.

Thank you,

Track Shack Events on behalf of runDisney

*********

The other chart seen in the OP (seen below) is one I made using extrapolated values from other runner's conversions using what appears to be the runDisney standard calculation method. It is not perfect, but very close.

So based on the information that I have at this moment, I am being led to believe the HM POT cutoff using a 10k for corral E is a 1:15:00. I have no reason to believe at this time that Marathon Weekend was a unique calculation given Wine and Dine 2018 also followed the same calculation as far as I can tell. Although, if you can provide me a source for the discrepancy I'm willing to change the OP.

 

[BearsMom2011]

This is incredibly awesome information. Thank you so much for providing it.

 

[BearsMom2011]

Awesome info! Thank you so much for providing it.

 

[BurleyGirl]

HM newbie here for the 2020 January HM.
I ran my POT 10K this weekend for next Jan's half; came in at 1:09:40, so that would put me in Corral E, which was what I was hoping to accomplish. But, I'm awfully close to the next cutoff.
Should I do another 10K to try to shave off the 90 seconds and try for Corral D? Is a one-corral bump up worth the expense and time of another 10K?

 

[ZellyB]

HM newbie here for the 2020 January HM.
I ran my POT 10K this weekend for next Jan's half; came in at 1:09:40, so that would put me in Corral E, which was what I was hoping to accomplish. But, I'm awfully close to the next cutoff.
Should I do another 10K to try to shave off the 90 seconds and try for Corral D? Is a one-corral bump up worth the expense and time of another 10K?

In my opinion, yes it's worth it to jump up another corral. The cutoffs aren't gospel though, so it's possible you could shave off that 90 seconds and still be in E, but as long as it's not too difficult or expensive to get in another 10K, I would probably do it.

 

[DopeyBadger]

HM newbie here for the 2020 January HM.
I ran my POT 10K this weekend for next Jan's half; came in at 1:09:40, so that would put me in Corral E, which was what I was hoping to accomplish. But, I'm awfully close to the next cutoff.
Should I do another 10K to try to shave off the 90 seconds and try for Corral D? Is a one-corral bump up worth the expense and time of another 10K?

Here are the last two years corral breakdowns for the Jan HM:



In 2018 and 2019, Corral E had 1987 and 1761 bibs in them or approximately 7% of the field. Corral D was larger with about 9-10% of the field. So the difference between the back of E vs the front of D could be as much as 17% of the field (or 4000-4900 bibs). So maximally, it could be a rather large difference in the number of people starting ahead of you. Additionally, Corral D is projected at a start time of 5:46 vs Corral E at 5:54. So you gain about 8 minutes of separation from the balloon ladies if the goal is to maximize amount of time spent on the course. So you would likely encounter less course congestion, smaller character lines, sooner finish relative to time of day, etc. as possibilities by moving up from Corral E to Corral D.

But like @ZellyB said, these cutoffs in the OP are just educated guesses. Only the cutoffs for POT submission were provided by RunDisney. The other values were calculated given past historical data and trying to figure out the math on their "industry standard calculator". So I'd say the individual corral cutoffs are close, but not perfect. So keep that in mind as you potentially reach for a new 10k PR. If it were me, I'd continue to train smart/hard to make my Jan 2020 HM even faster, and if in the mean time I'm able to run a faster 10k that qualifies me into a new corral then that would just be the cherry on top.

 

[BurleyGirl]

ZellyB and DopeyBadger, thank you very much for your advice. DopeyBadger, that was exactly the insight I was looking for--what exactly the benefits of a higher corral netted me, and I do understand your times could change and are not official. That being said, I think I will try for the bump up, gaining experience if nothing else.
Again, thank you for your insights and advice!

 

[TikiBirdRunner]

This might be a fairly unique data point: I submitted a marathon time of 3:57:43 for the 2019 Princess Half Marathon. I was pleasantly surprised to be placed in Corral A because the McMillan calculator estimated a 1:52:57 pace. Any ideas @DopeyBadger? I ended up PRing and got in under the 1:50 designation of Corral A, so maybe RunDisney knows me better than I know myself?!