Potential Purchase- Check my logic?

[GCorbett]

I',m considering purchasing a resale contract at the Poly. I've done a lot of research and I think that I have a pretty good understanding, but would appreciate a second (or third) set of eyes. Here is what I am thinking:

Background: I'm in my 40s and have 2 year old twins. I have always loved Disney and am taking them on their first trip in a couple of days. In my most recent trip, I stayed at the Poly and absolutely adored it (we are staying at Contemporary Club level this time because we expect to be coming back to the hotel alot from MK). I am a bit of a workaholic and kind of like the idea of being "forced" to take a vacation on a biannual basis at least. My sister and her two sons also love Disney and would often travel with us. Our most likely time of travel would be February. I've priced out the expected points and in 2020, the cost would be 141 per unit.

So, here we go on my researched based analysis:

1. I should get at least 160 points, 175 being more ideal. I know that points can change and the possibility of a point reallocation due to the overpriced bungalows makes this even more liktely in the case of the Poly.

2. I should get a use year of August-December. Use year I have a bit of a hard time getting my head around, but it seems like this will allow me to take advantage of banking and borrowing better? As I say, this is my weak point in figuring out how this works.

3. With a combination of banking and borrowing, I should be able to book 2 studios every other year. In order to do this, I would need to purchase a fairly loaded contract. For example, if I wanted to book for Feburary 2021, I would need to have 282 points in my account or expected to be in my account during the 2020 calendar year. So, if I bought a contract with say 140 banked 2019 points, I could book during the home resort window with say a December use year, I could use my coming 2020 points in conjunction with those banked points or would I have to use the 2019 points before the end of the 2020 calendar year for the actual stay? (Once again, despite a law degree, I am a bit baffled by use years). I then could bank my 2021 points for a 2023 visit?

4. The long time remaining on the Poly contract makes it especially attractive to me as I could forsee possibly reselling it at some point in the fairly distant future. The contract will expire when I am in my late 80s. I am assuming a conservative estimate is that I would get at least 25% of my initial purchase price back

One question: Also, any why there are so many Poly resale contracts being offered at present? Is it just the bungalows or is it the lack of one bedrooms?

I would appreciate any feedback on whether my logic is sound. Thanks!

 

[jwinky]

Great things to think about! I'm also a parent of twins! I'm just in beginning stage of the resale process, so I understand the research needed.

For your items listed:
1. I think started with your point count make sense now. You can always add more points later.
2. Think about your future vacation habits. You are able to go in Feb now, but will that change when the kids start school. I'm looking at Feb-Mar UY for those years we want to going during spring break and it still covers for summer season. It advised to pick a UY where your vacation will start. It gives you more flexibility to cancel and rebook later while your points are still good or you can bank them in time for next year.
3. Please check the predictability dvc availability thread out there for poly studios. If it's green in Feb, then you should be okay booking two studios. If it's red, then it might be harder to get those studios (especially two) and you have to use more points to get the lakeview room. And the example bank 2019 should be okay to use until 2021. Of course, please note, if you are trying to book for Feb 2021, your 11 month booking window is getting smaller since the resale process can take 6-8 weeks and you looking for a bank contract.
4. I would think a monorail resort would hold some value if you decide to resale.

Glad to offer my two cents for what it's worth. Good luck!

 

[CaliAdventurer]

As for all the resale, IMO, it’s timing. It’s relatively new but just old enough where folks are looking to quit or trade some of this will certainly have to do with the lack of flexibility on rooms configurations. Next to no owners are in it for the bungalows and studios at high point per night are the o lu choice. Looks like your eyes are open. Poly is a great resort!! One of the best of the rooms work for you. You can always trade into a bigger room elsewhere if you must.

 

[GCorbett]

Thank you both for reading my, in looking back, long post and your feedback. I am waiting to see how this trip goes before I bite the bullet. Of course, they are young and may not fully "get" everything yet. Assuming this trip isn't an utter disaster, I think I'm going to do it. Very exciting

 

[mamaofsix]

My only thought is: are you sure you will ALWAYS want a studio? A studio might be good now with 2 young children, but what about when they are older? Sometimes a good night's sleep and separate bedrooms is worth it's weight in gold...

Will you eventually want the option of in-room laundry and a kitchen / living room? You might want enough points for 1 or 2 bedrooms instead of studios, and also a home resort that offers those options.

But just my 2 cents!

 

[kboo]

Thank you both for reading my, in looking back, long post and your feedback. I am waiting to see how this trip goes before I bite the bullet. Of course, they are young and may not fully "get" everything yet. Assuming this trip isn't an utter disaster, I think I'm going to do it. Very exciting

When my oldest was 2, my workaholic DH was dealing with her melting down (running away from him in MK after dark while I was riding space mountain) and proclaimed, “we are NOT coming back for a LONG time!!!!” 5 years, 9 trips and 1 more kid later, we have 3 home resorts and we love it.

One of the non-monetary reasons we switched to dvc over cash trips was because we both liked the idea of enforced vacations. Too many prior vacations (including some Disney trips) one or the other of us was at a work conference and we brought the kid(s) and that got old for the tag along parent. This is an often overlooked point when one starts figuring monetary break even. The “must use” nature of the points makes us plan better and more vacations and makes them happen much more easily. True we spend more money at WDW but I like the fact that we are taking more true vacations with less “but work!” angst

My only thought is: are you sure you will ALWAYS want a studio? A studio might be good now with 2 young children, but what about when they are older? Sometimes a good night's sleep and separate bedrooms is worth it's weight in gold...

Will you eventually want the option of in-room laundry and a kitchen / living room? You might want enough points for 1 or 2 bedrooms instead of studios, and also a home resort that offers those options.

But just my 2 cents!

OP, I think your plan is sound and this was the only question I had as well. We bought BLT first, and figured 185 points would be enough for us to stay a week in a studio one year and a 1br the next through banking points. Well, BLT studios are small (did finally stay in one last June) and we have pretty much gotten to the point of wanting to stay in 1br or larger all the time now. My DH can do work in the room after the kids are asleep, we pack 3-4 days of clothes no matter how long we are there (and do laundry), we are finally starting to use the kitchen more... it’s been really nice to have that separation from the kids.

Also - we got a fairly loaded contract that enabled us to stay in a 1br and then a 2br for our first stays on points. That probably spoiled us.
Finally, if you like the location of the contemporary, factor that in. While your kids are in strollers, it is invaluable to be able to walk to MK. And it’s still my kids’ favorite park, so many years later.

If you buy Poly points you should be able to Get a 1br lake view at BLT many times of the year, but generally booking standard there you’ll need to own there. The right priced Poly contract could be a good value to use at Poly and BLT at 7mo when you want something larger, depending on when you like to travel.

 

[MJB62676]

We bought Poly direct for all the reasons you mentioned above (especially "forcing" me to take a vacation). Your logic makes sense.

I wouldn't overthink UY too much. Ours is December, and it hasn't been an issue yet. Kids are in school, soon they won't be, so we can't plan for everything. I'd just recommend you match UY if you ever add on points. We now own both Poly and Aulani with a Dec. UY.

I figure if I'm ever "stuck" wanting or needing a 1BR or larger, I will be able to stay at OKW, which we love...my plan is when the kids get old enough they don't want to share 1 poly studio with us, I will book 2 studios, or combine points and do a Bungalow, or plan to book at 2BR (cause imo, 1BR are really just as low on privacy as a studio) elsewhere. We vow to not cook on vacation...and keep laundry to a minimum. It's worked for us so far at Poly and you can't beat the convenience and views of Poly, imo.

 

[GCorbett]

Thank you all for your comments. I too am a bit concerned about the lack of 1 bedrooms, but I figured, as MJB pointed out, we could probably book a 1br at OKW if push came to shove. Of course, in not too many years, my older nephew will be off at college and the younger one will be old enough to stay with my kids in a neighboring room if necessary. I have a feeling I may eventually be a point adder, but I'm taking it one step at a time.

 

[AnnaS]

Are your twins both the same sex?

Just curious how many more years you will be happy with a studio.

 

[Spark65]

20 years ago and as much as 15 years ago we had no problems with a studio with 5 of us. Not today BTW are your twins boys/girls? Reason ...bathrooms! How long does your wife spend in the bathroom add even 1 and good luck.
I am a Poly owner and I love it there but because I bring at least 6 now with 3 women anything with lots of bathrooms trumps studio at Poly.

 

[GCorbett]

I did get one of each (a boy and a girl that is). I see what you're saying about possible future issues, but since I expect to get two rooms when we go, I think that will be less of an issue. My biggest concern is that I know that I should buy where I would like to stay and that is the Polynesian. I would consider something like BCV but I don't want to buy a contract that will be expiring that soon. We are headed to the Contemporary next week. If I really like it, I will consider BLT. However, I don't imagine it will have the same immersive feel that I like about the Poly.

In other news, I ran my idea by my financial advisor, expecting her to talk me out of it. After asking a couple of questions, she seemed to think it was a good idea (in no small part because she knows my abnormal work obsession). That is one hurdle passed. Now just to get the nerve to actually go for it.

 

[Spark65]

I have stayed at BLT although nice Poly is much better. Now before all the BLT owners bring pitchforks I did say I like it but I prefer POLY and would stay at BLT again. I have a feeling you'll prefer POLY but demand they they put the waterfall back in lobby too before you commit as well!

 

[AnnaS]

If you like/love Poly and this is where you will not mind staying most of your trips, I say go for it. You will end up regretting not doing it sooner.

As long as you can afford it, know you will visit every year/every other year.......why not? We all did Direct and/or resale.

You can always get your 100 direct and add-on resale too. Good luck deciding.

 

[mamaofsix]

I did get one of each (a boy and a girl that is). I see what you're saying about possible future issues, but since I expect to get two rooms when we go, I think that will be less of an issue. My biggest concern is that I know that I should buy where I would like to stay and that is the Polynesian. I would consider something like BCV but I don't want to buy a contract that will be expiring that soon. We are headed to the Contemporary next week. If I really like it, I will consider BLT. However, I don't imagine it will have the same immersive feel that I like about the Poly.

In other news, I ran my idea by my financial advisor, expecting her to talk me out of it. After asking a couple of questions, she seemed to think it was a good idea (in no small part because she knows my abnormal work obsession). That is one hurdle passed. Now just to get the nerve to actually go for it.

As long as you are aware that if you get two rooms you are not necessarily guaranteed to get side-by-side, or even close to each other? Disney does it's best, but it's definitely a risk you'd be taking.

 

[Wakey]

The only thing I'd say is you may appreciate 1 beds as your kids get older, Poly does not have any of course. But 1 beds are much easier to get than studios at 7 months and I cannot forsee a time when you could not get one at SSR and OKW for example on 7 months.

 

[CarolMN]

As long as you are aware that if you get two rooms you are not necessarily guaranteed to get side-by-side, or even close to each other? Disney does it's best, but it's definitely a risk you'd be taking.

It's a very small risk at the PVB. IMO, it should not be a consideration for a PVB purchase.

Except for two, all of the 360 studios at the PVB connect to another studio. It is very, very rare that requests for connecting studios are denied.

 

[rg35]

You never have to force me to take a vacation. Our culture in America regarding work/life balance is so broken. At least that's starting to change as younger generations realize that there are more important things in life than spending all your life in an office.

 

[MJB62676]

You never have to force me to take a vacation. Our culture in America regarding work/life balance is so broken. At least that's starting to change as younger generations realize that there are more important things in life than spending all your life in an office.

I've always taken lots of time off, but i'd spend it doing "staycations", working on the house, etc...or following a college football team on road trips. Disney has changed all that.

 

[GCorbett]

Well I do take time off, but I tend to do staycations that morph into working from home. It's an inherited trait, as my father was the same way. In any case, I also like the fact that the Poly has three beds in their studios (normal, sofa and what I call the wall bed). Despite all being in the same room, the kids can each have their own bed. And if necessary, we can fit up to 5 people, not that I necessarily would want to room with that many people. From what I've been able to determine, the one bedrooms only have two beds and accomodate up to 4 people.

 

[kboo]

From what I've been able to determine, the one bedrooms only have two beds and accomodate up to 4 people.

Actually not quite ...
BLT and AKV Kidani both sleep 5 (sofa bed and sleeper chair in LR) and have 2 full baths
OKW and VGF and RIV also sleep 5 in 1-beds - in VGF and RIV, the 5th person sleeps in the murphy twin. I don't know about OKW.