Predictions on WDW marathon sell out times?

[heyitsmejosh]

since people are jumping on this so quickly this year im guessing come dec there are going to be a lot of people trying to sell some of these bibs in the secondary market, more so then other years

 

[IamTrike]

DATW to the rescue!

I was thinking GKTW but DATW is an acceptable alternative.

 

[IamTrike]

since people are jumping on this so quickly this year im guessing come dec there are going to be a lot of people trying to sell some of these bibs in the secondary market, more so then other years

There was a steady stream of Dopey bibs on a couple of the Facebook groups last year. There seemed to be two groups of people. Group 1 were people who had stuff come up at the last minute that prevented them from going. Usually injuries, family stuff or work stuff. Group 2 were people that hit about Nov and realized oh crap that's a long way to run and I haven't started training yet.

 

[Ariel484]

since people are jumping on this so quickly this year im guessing come dec there are going to be a lot of people trying to sell some of these bibs in the secondary market, more so then other years

There was a steady stream of Dopey bibs on a couple of the Facebook groups last year. There seemed to be two groups of people. Group 1 were people who had stuff come up at the last minute that prevented them from going. Usually injuries, family stuff or work stuff. Group 2 were people that hit about Nov and realized oh crap that's a long way to run and I haven't started training yet.

I really wish runDisney would start doing legal bib transfers for a flat $50 fee or something in addition to paying the race fee. I'm sure it would be a logistical nightmare for them with all of the people, but it would be nice.

 

[ANIM8R]

I'm in Ohio too! FINALLY spring here!

"Finally" is right!

 

[cewait]

since people are jumping on this so quickly this year im guessing come dec there are going to be a lot of people trying to sell some of these bibs in the secondary market, more so then other years

Possibly, but the new pickup policy will make it very difficult. No long will one be able to appoint another to pick up their packet. In short, those who will be selling must come to the Expo. This will leave many spots simply unfilled.

 

[VAfamily1998]

Possibly, but the new pickup policy will make it very difficult. No long will one be able to appoint another to pick up their packet. In short, those who will be selling must come to the Expo. This will leave many spots simply unfilled.

So if someone lived local to Disney World, and it wouldn't be too big a deal for them to go to the expo and pick up a packet, they could still theoretically sell their bib...Do you think Disney would ever get to the point that they would want to check IDs in the starting area before a race?

 

[IamTrike]

Possibly, but the new pickup policy will make it very difficult. No long will one be able to appoint another to pick up their packet. In short, those who will be selling must come to the Expo. This will leave many spots simply unfilled.

I'm curious if this will translate to an even slightly less crowded feeling on the course. I'm guessing that it's not enough to make a noticeable difference. I kind of wish the results broke out total participants, dns, dnf and then finished.

 

[IamTrike]

So if someone lived local to Disney World, and it wouldn't be too big a deal for them to go to the expo and pick up a packet, they could still theoretically sell their bib...Do you think Disney would ever get to the point that they would want to check IDs in the starting area before a race?

In theory it's possible, but this also explicitly prohibited by disney.

 

[cewait]

I'm curious if this will translate to an even slightly less crowded feeling on the course. I'm guessing that it's not enough to make a noticeable difference. I kind of wish the results broke out total participants, dns, dnf and then finished.

Would love to see the DNS's.... I had a friend who would feed me that data but they moved on to bigger mouse challenges...

With regard to the crowded feeling - no real lessening of the crowds as a result. I am thinking the new policy catches maybe an additional 3-500 runners out who may have sold bibs last minute.

The real way to lessen the course crowds are to better seed runners and add even more corrals. I think the mouse did great on the full last year but not so much on the half. The easy fix is to do like they did in February and seed the runners in each race. The bibs had two corrals noted for the 10k and half. That is the quickest way to repair the half seeding.

 

[heyitsmejosh]

Possibly, but the new pickup policy will make it very difficult. No long will one be able to appoint another to pick up their packet. In short, those who will be selling must come to the Expo. This will leave many spots simply unfilled.

thats how its usually done anyway

 

[jimandami]

thats how its usually done anyway

No, they used to allow others to pick up your packet for you, if they signed a release.

 

[cewait]

So if someone lived local to Disney World, and it wouldn't be too big a deal for them to go to the expo and pick up a packet, they could still theoretically sell their bib...Do you think Disney would ever get to the point that they would want to check IDs in the starting area before a race?

It's possible that one could sell the bib in person but the logistics would be tougher. I honestly hope the mouse never goes to showing ID at the corrals or on race day. That would probably be the last day I ever ran a Disney race. In theory it could be relatively easy to set up - especially with the Magicband/FP+ system. That would still be relatively easy to cheat for a local as all one needs is a band with the original bib purchasers info. I have 4 bands with Charles encoded on them.

 

[cewait]

thats how its usually done anyway

Yes, by a relatively few. Most selling' came from non-locals who would simply fill out the authorization and copy their DL and exchange that for the bib money

 

[heyitsmejosh]

No, they used to allow others to pick up your packet for you, if they signed a release.

true but usually when people buy bibs they meet at the expo many people are way to wary of giving people a copy of their DL ect. i have friends who buy bibs for nearly every race and thats how its usually done

 

[VAfamily1998]

I really wish runDisney would start doing legal bib transfers for a flat $50 fee or something in addition to paying the race fee. I'm sure it would be a logistical nightmare for them with all of the people, but it would be nice.

Marine Corps Marathon has a bib transfer program, and the MCM is about 30,000 runners I think?

Would it just be more difficult for Disney because they hold multiple sell-out races each year, whereas the Marine Corps just has the one Marathon (and other smaller races, but they aren't in nearly as high demand)?

 

[FFigawi]

Marine Corps Marathon has a bib transfer program, and the MCM is about 30,000 runners I think? Would it just be more difficult for Disney because they hold multiple sell-out races each year, whereas the Marine Corps just has the one Marathon (and other smaller races, but they aren't in nearly as high demand)?

It wouldn't be more difficult, but it would cost them money. By not allowing transfers, they save on the amount of medals, shirts, water, etc., they need to have available. For each person who doesn't show, that's one less they have to provide for. /end cynicism

 

[Krandor]

It wouldn't be more difficult, but it would cost them money. By not allowing transfers, they save on the amount of medals, shirts, water, etc., they need to have available. For each person who doesn't show, that's one less they have to provide for. /end cynicism

The problem with allowing it is it would create a huge secondary market and like concerts you would have scalpers buying a bunch of bibs just to resell. If you think they sell out quickly now, with the ability to re-sell and transfer a bib they will be gone in a flash and most people will have to go to resellers. I am not sure that is a good idea.

 

[cewait]

The problem with allowing it is it would create a huge secondary market and like concerts you would have scalpers buying a bunch of bibs just to resell. If you think they sell out quickly now, with the ability to re-sell and transfer a bib they will be gone in a flash and most people will have to go to resellers. I am not sure that is a good idea.

Your points are good but the missing piece here is that like the MCM, Disney would have to operate as a gate keeper for transfers.

Currently, the secondary market does exist and stopping the ability to pick up another runners bib will slow the current secondary market

 

[Castle2Castle]

The problem with allowing it is it would create a huge secondary market and like concerts you would have scalpers buying a bunch of bibs just to resell. If you think they sell out quickly now, with the ability to re-sell and transfer a bib they will be gone in a flash and most people will have to go to resellers. I am not sure that is a good idea.

This was a topic of conversation when runDisney first announced the change in policy on packet pickup. Some people apparently thought there was a large secondary market of scalpers buying up bibs already and that the policy change would slow the pace of registrations. Since the announcement, W&D and Marathon Weekend have still seen faster sales year-over-year.

I don't buy that there's been a meaningful market for scalpers here, whether before or after the new packet policy. For starters, the Active.com registration page isn't as accomodating to buying tickets in bulk and the need to provide a copy of the registrant's driver's license or be present for pickup isn't as convenient as other secondary markets. Also, the markets for those spectator events are vastly different from endurance sporting events in which the buyer is participating. You have many more buyers to sit and watch an event than you do to run and sweat for an event -- and the number of buyers for the latter decreases each day after registration as the pool of potential buyers has less time to prepare for the event and justify the expense. There's higher costs, more risk and less incentive for scalpers to get into these markets.

Accounts of the bib resales seems to bear this out - they seem to pop up closer to the event rather than sooner when a true scalper would have a higher number of potential buyers. The resellers seem to be those who have failed to adequately train, injured themselves or had other events in life conflict with the dates of the race. RunDisney's new pickup policy may slow some of the resales, but I question how many people out there were using the copied DL route given the asymmetry of the exchange between strangers. It might work well enough among friends who are both runners, but for others, I would guess they still kept their Disney vacation and did the exchange in person anyway.