Projected DVC Maintenance Fees

I dont think that the WDW resorts will ever catch up to those properties in fees.

In addition, it may be harder to book WDW in the next few years given all the extra points from canceled trips. IMO, if WDW is it, I’d buy there.
Thanks for your ideas.. As far as whether other resorts will 'catch up' I assume you mean increase at the same speed and not simply reach the same cost per year, correct? In any case it seems there are a lot of unknowns
 
Just as a points cow I do not think it's a good choice. Certainly the buy in is lower but there's a reason for that. They are still higher long term looked at in total and you give up a potential 11 month window at WDW. Now if one wants to stay at one of those resorts a fair amount of time AND use at WDW, it can be reasonable but even then for most situation owning 2 resorts would be better with any volume of points.
Thanks for the input Dean; by higher long term I assume you mean the MF's which we are assuming will remain higher.. However as to the total cost, wouldn't that depend on how long a person keeps the contract and then sells it versus keeping it to expiration?
 
Thanks for the input Dean; by higher long term I assume you mean the MF's which we are assuming will remain higher.. However as to the total cost, wouldn't that depend on how long a person keeps the contract and then sells it versus keeping it to expiration?
I mean higher in total taking up front costs, Opportunity costs, dues with increases all added together. My comparison for on property is SSR when looking just to get some points. As for selling sooner, I don't think anyone should ever plan to take that approach but for sake of discussion, I don't think it matters for the purpose of this discussion. The sales price will reflect the value and you will likely be worse of by buying then selling in 10 years and that assumes you can even sell VB & HH which is a major assumption in my book. Just too risky for a short term savings for my taste. It's like the difference in asking how much a car costs vs how much a month.
 
Thanks for your ideas.. As far as whether other resorts will 'catch up' I assume you mean increase at the same speed and not simply reach the same cost per year, correct? In any case it seems there are a lot of unknowns

Yes, that is what I mean. And given the difference right now, it won’t take long to eat up those savings. Plus, with SSR you are getting an extra 12 years

To add, while I also do not think one should consider resale value, I do believe SSR or any WDW resort will give you a better return than either of those 2 will.
 


from the first post: not bad @ct_chris with your eight year projection ...
View attachment 517733

2020 predicted vs. actual dues
all USD per point
resortpredictedactualp - a / a
OKW​
7.02​
7.84​
-10.5%​
VB (subsidized)​
7.52​
8.00​
-6.0%​
HHI​
8.00​
9.10​
-12.0%​
BWV​
7.59​
7.37​
+2.9%​
BRV​
7.57​
7.78​
-2.7%​
BCV​
7.42​
7.06​
+5.1%​
SSR​
6.38​
6.77​
-5.7%​
AKV​
7.34​
7.67​
-4.3%​
BLT​
5.70​
6.58​
-13.4%​
VGC​
5.84​
6.60​
-11.4%​
AUL​
8.04​
8.33​
-3.4%​
AUL (subsidized)​
6.05​
6.26​
-3.4%​
predicted = 2012 dues * 1.0382^8

totally missed the prediction of VGF, PVB, CCV, and RVA dues; I don't even see them on the chart!?

😉
VB non subsidized is missing as well and it's most of the contracts. IF I were going to buy VB for any reason (or Aulani), I'd hold out for a subsidized contract even though it'll be more expensive.
 
VB non subsidized is missing as well and it's most of the contracts. IF I were going to buy VB for any reason (or Aulani), I'd hold out for a subsidized contract even though it'll be more expensive.
I was trying to figure out if the PHYSCIAL LAYOUT of the resort was a factor in MF's. Obviously location is the main one, so for resorts that are near a beach and possibly affected by hurricanes it's more obvious, but I wonder if anyone has researched if the type of layout (amount of land used, amount of land to maintain, the number of buildings vs one or two larger buildings etc) for a WDW DVC is a factor in projecting future MF's?

In my opinion future MF's are the most overlooked as well as key factor in the REAL cost of ownership over the long term at DVC. I just wish it was possible to have a better way of knowing future MFs so I could plan..
 


I was trying to figure out if the PHYSCIAL LAYOUT of the resort was a factor in MF's. Obviously location is the main one, so for resorts that are near a beach and possibly affected by hurricanes it's more obvious, but I wonder if anyone has researched if the type of layout (amount of land used, amount of land to maintain, the number of buildings vs one or two larger buildings etc) for a WDW DVC is a factor in projecting future MF's?

In my opinion future MF's are the most overlooked as well as key factor in the REAL cost of ownership over the long term at DVC. I just wish it was possible to have a better way of knowing future MFs so I could plan..
IMO the physical location and design of the resort is very important as well as the size and # of points total. The weather risk is also an issue. IMO resort design is a major factor for resorts with cabins or individual buildings. Weather is a bigger issue for VB & HI and possibly HI as well. The OKW design is a factor IMO. The contractor situation also likely has some impact esp for HI, VB & HHI. Looking at all that one would judge some resorts more at risk than others. Also just with normal inflation the higher dues will likely escalate at a faster rate. Looking at all that I feel HI, VB & HHI are at a higher risk for non WDW, for WDW OKW and the resorts with Cabins are probably the most at risk. I think SSR & BLT are the most protected followed by BWV & Riviera. Of course there are variables we can't anticipate so something might happen unexpectedly like a big fire or Tornado.
 
IMO the physical location and design of the resort is very important as well as the size and # of points total. The weather risk is also an issue. IMO resort design is a major factor for resorts with cabins or individual buildings. Weather is a bigger issue for VB & HI and possibly HI as well. The OKW design is a factor IMO. The contractor situation also likely has some impact esp for HI, VB & HHI. Looking at all that one would judge some resorts more at risk than others. Also just with normal inflation the higher dues will likely escalate at a faster rate. Looking at all that I feel HI, VB & HHI are at a higher risk for non WDW, for WDW OKW and the resorts with Cabins are probably the most at risk. I think SSR & BLT are the most protected followed by BWV & Riviera. Of course there are variables we can't anticipate so something might happen unexpectedly like a big fire or Tornado.
I hadn't thought about the Cabin thing.. I do own at BLT and hoped that the fact that amount of landscapintg was smaller since it was more an 'apartment style' large building without cabins, but you bring up an interesting point. You think CCV and PVB could be effected since they have cabins?
 
I hadn't thought about the Cabin thing.. I do own at BLT and hoped that the fact that amount of landscapintg was smaller since it was more an 'apartment style' large building without cabins, but you bring up an interesting point. You think CCV and PVB could be effected since they have cabins?
I suspect they will long term. I think the design at BLT with the smaller footprint comparatively speaking and higher points will keep dues in check. I suspects the dues there long term will be the best in the system followed closely by SSR. To me that makes BLT the second best option for a points down and maybe the best for those who are not comfortable staying at SSR part of the time. Ultimately who knows but I do think we can anticipate much of the outcome with reasonable expectations comparatively speaking.
 
I suspect they will long term. I think the design at BLT with the smaller footprint comparatively speaking and higher points will keep dues in check. I suspects the dues there long term will be the best in the system followed closely by SSR. To me that makes BLT the second best option for a points down and maybe the best for those who are not comfortable staying at SSR part of the time. Ultimately who knows but I do think we can anticipate much of the outcome with reasonable expectations comparatively speaking.
Yes, I always wondered about SSR for this reason; the spacing out and large landscaping areas. Yet so far, the maintenance fees have stayed 'in check' over there. Howver the number of Cabins is fairly small no? I don't know about CCV, but PVB only has 20 Bungalows so I am not sure how much impact they could have on future MF's - also they are situated on a Lake, not the ocean.
 
Yes, I always wondered about SSR for this reason; the spacing out and large landscaping areas. Yet so far, the maintenance fees have stayed 'in check' over there. Howver the number of Cabins is fairly small no? I don't know about CCV, but PVB only has 20 Bungalows so I am not sure how much impact they could have on future MF's - also they are situated on a Lake, not the ocean.
I think the building upkeep is a far bigger issue than landscaping maintenance, esp being such a large resort with a lot of points. The THV is the one downside but comparatively speaking it's a small portion so likely no real issues there. The construction and building layout is likely to be the most efficient of any which is the main reason for my opinion. I think for Poly cabins will be a large impact due to being on the water and being such a large $ of the total points there. I also wonder if studios are inherently more difficult to keep up or have to be done more frequently, esp there where there are no other room options except the bungalows and studios. But not having full kitchens will offset this somewhat. I suspect people are more likely to stuff the rooms there and increase maintenance since there are no other unit types. But in the end it is an educated guessing game. I do wonder if Riviera will end up being fairly favorable long term when it comes to this issue.
 
I think the building upkeep is a far bigger issue than landscaping maintenance, esp being such a large resort with a lot of points. The THV is the one downside but comparatively speaking it's a small portion so likely no real issues there. The construction and building layout is likely to be the most efficient of any which is the main reason for my opinion. I think for Poly cabins will be a large impact due to being on the water and being such a large $ of the total points there. I also wonder if studios are inherently more difficult to keep up or have to be done more frequently, esp there where there are no other room options except the bungalows and studios. But not having full kitchens will offset this somewhat. I suspect people are more likely to stuff the rooms there and increase maintenance since there are no other unit types. But in the end it is an educated guessing game. I do wonder if Riviera will end up being fairly favorable long term when it comes to this issue.
Never thought about the fact that a lack of 1 & 2 bdrooms also means no full kitchens and thus no need for fridge, oven etc in the MF's.. The Bungalows are incredibly point costly though, however there are only 20 of them, so I wonder how much can truly go 'wrong'? Even if half were in need of major repair, the total cost even of a full 'makover' would still only be the cost of those 10 no?
 
Never thought about the fact that a lack of 1 & 2 bdrooms also means no full kitchens and thus no need for fridge, oven etc in the MF's.. The Bungalows are incredibly point costly though, however there are only 20 of them, so I wonder how much can truly go 'wrong'? Even if half were in need of major repair, the total cost even of a full 'makover' would still only be the cost of those 10 no?
I think the 20 are a lot comparative speaking. But from a perspective standpoint we're simply talking comparison. The first question for a possible DVC owner is whether they should participate at all. If you can truly afford SSR you can afford VGF or Riviera or conversely if you can't afford the others you really can't afford any of them if that margin is that tight. I do feel that SSR is the best single option for a points cow but there are other factors and all resorts have their place for the right person.
 
two things I discovered ...
  1. point heavy resorts are actually helped in terms of per point dues because the larger denominator (total resort points) helps
  2. if you remove the point chart differences (normalized by points required for a year in an average studio) then the overlap between similar resorts is quite amazing; this supports the comment that the resort layout has a lot to do with dues
View attachment 517909
https://www.disboards.com/threads/annual-dues-deviation-from-average.3807594/post-62140213
just thought I'd share as I came to some of the same conclusions you two (@Dean and @Pluto777) have

I bring this up each time but your chart has the flaw of self correcting with each new resort. It makes it look like resorts are correcting towards and average when in reality their major jumps are driven by more expensive resort.

You can also see an opposite reaction when you go from just OKW/BWV to adding BRV and BCV. BWV didn't decrease its just BRV and BCV were basically the same pricing structure.

Also yes I consider it a flaw because a majority will not correctly understand what the graph is portraying which is in the long runore expensive resorts come along and 20% difference 20 years ago is much different than 20% today.
 
I think the 20 are a lot comparative speaking. But from a perspective standpoint we're simply talking comparison. The first question for a possible DVC owner is whether they should participate at all. If you can truly afford SSR you can afford VGF or Riviera or conversely if you can't afford the others you really can't afford any of them if that margin is that tight. I do feel that SSR is the best single option for a points cow but there are other factors and all resorts have their place for the right person.
You know I used to own at BRV WL, but I sold despite the fact I liked it because I was concerned about the 'early' expiration date (2042) making it difficult to sell later at a competitive price if I choose to as well as the high MF's. What I couldn't understand was that the main building (which is BEAUTIFUL IMO) is similar to VGF in that is essentially a 1 building structure with 'wings'.. yet the MF's there vs say a PVB, SSR or BLT have increased so much; and I worried about the future impact to my wallet.
 
You know I used to own at BRV WL, but I sold despite the fact I liked it because I was concerned about the 'early' expiration date (2042) making it difficult to sell later at a competitive price if I choose to as well as the high MF's. What I couldn't understand was that the main building (which is BEAUTIFUL IMO) is similar to VGF in that is essentially a 1 building structure with 'wings'.. yet the MF's there vs say a PVB, SSR or BLT have increased so much; and I worried about the future impact to my wallet.
We've discussed the sell/buy issue many times privately and on DIS. IMO it's almost always the best choice to just add less than selling one and buying another, esp now that it often means selling qualified points and either paying a LOT more or buying on qualified points. You have the inherent losses in a sell situation and the closing when buying back in. I don't think selling now or previously just because of worry about expiration in 21 plus years is reasonable but there may be other factors.
 
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