Riviera 50 pointer cleared ROFR at $121

[havoc315]

Wow, the thought process is very good. If you are thinking in the terms stated above maybe it is best you just bite the bullet and buy direct. Keep the points as long as it suits your lifestyle and when Disney trips are no longer a part of the plan, you can still sell them resale--maybe for a little loss but think of all the enjoyment received while they were owned. Lots of ways to approach the expense of DVC. Everyone is different with their own wants, needs, and expectations. The only thing I advise is to NEVER consider the purchase of DVC as an investment, it is a Time Share and should be treated as a Time Share.

THIS. It is not an investment. I wouldn't buy with the expectation of ever getting a penny back. While it remains likely you will be able to recoup much of your initial buy-in if you resell, I wouldn't buy based on that expectation. I'd buy with the thought of: It is going to cost $XXXX, and am I going to get $XXXX of enjoyment out of the purchase?

I bought Riviera direct. I'm not particularly young, my kids are teens. It is highly highly unlikely that I'll personally keep and use the contract for another 50 years. But my plan is to pass it to the kids, they should be able to take nice trips with only paying the annual maintenance. Maybe I will re-sell it before then. Maybe they won't care for it and they will re-sell it.
The only guarantee I would look at with re-sale: You will get out of paying annual dues.
If we (me and my wife, later my kids) keep it for the full 50 years - it will obviously be worthless by then. But we will have gotten generations of good use. If we re-sell it in 15 years, even if it's nearly worthless, I expect we will have at least gotten good value over the 15 years.

As to buying direct or re-sale... that's an equation that involves more than just blue card perk math. But it's quite clear that with future re-sale restrictions, in the long term, direct will be more valuable than re-sale.
The issue now is that for many people, there isn't a huge difference between direct and re-sale. If you don't care about the blue card perks, what really is the difference between buying Riviera direct and buying Bay Lake Tower re-sale, for example. The only structural differences are 40 year contract vs 50 year, and privileges at 14/15 resorts vs 15/15. But 15+ years from now, there will be far more significant structural differences. And 25 years from now, re-sale will likely be basically just home resort use while direct will be all-resort, really stretching the value difference. (on a side note, the structural difference will be so big, I suspect they will get rid of many/most/all blue card perks).

 

[kboo]

I do think and agree that the impact on booking from resale owners won’t be seen for a good 10 years or so and that other than SV rooms, which are difficult even now, especially studios, owners who book during home resort time will see booking trends close to all the others.

As of right now, rooms go at 7mo because there are a ton of pre-2019 resale and direct owners at other resorts who are booking RIV right at 7mo. So 7mo availability will always be very tough at this resort. And right now any 7-11 mo booking pressure is from RIV direct owners who are booking the standard rooms.

I will even go as far to predict that most RIV resale owners will also be owners at other resorts and are buying for specific trips.

I could see RIV resale in the $100-$120 pp being attractive to DVC owners who already have blue card and/or other resorts available. You won't need to be able to book other resorts (there are other SAP for that). There are plenty of VGF owners who paid well over that and who use their points at VGF only.

I can’t imagine having RIV resale and try to book a studio less than 7 months out. Preferred and standard 1 bedrooms should be doable. Even worse cancel a reservation less than 30 days out and have the points go in holding. Just kiss them goodbye or get a 2 bedroom preferred for two days, for canceling a 7 night studio stay.

At that point I would try to rent it as a dedicated reservation. It seems like a well-priced rental (distressed points) would still be doable. The dedicated reservations for rent I'm seeing right now that are not moving are all over $15pp. And, as @sethschroeder said, anyone who's an experienced DVC owner who has to cancel <30 days out is likely dealing with something more catastrophic and hoping to just cover. (Recently had a stressful experience renting out points due to canceling a November trip; we survived. Price it to move, and it will move.)

what really is the difference between buying Riviera direct and buying Bay Lake Tower re-sale, for example.

This is exactly the calculus we were doing when we ultimately bought RIV about a month after it went on sale, sight unseen (sort of).

We already own BLT + blue card benefits, but wanted to add on to be able to stay in larger units for longer, even potentially a BLT GV. The BLT points we already had could be used anywhere, but if we added BLT in 2019 those points would be blocked from Riviera. At the # of points we were considering, it was a $5000 difference in the purchase price (for the same # of points). We bought at Riviera because (assuming dues are close enough), that extra $5000 bought us:

• points in account right away (instead of lengthy ROFR process + hunting for right size contract in the UY we wanted)
• a home resort in EP/HS area
• another DVC backpack
• a lot of extra FPs during our trip (because we took the tour, and bought on site)

Since then, we've stayed 4 nights in a 1br standard over New Years, with views of the Epcot ball and MK fireworks behind it. I feel like we've already gotten our $5000 worth. (If the buyer is post-2019 resale without blue card perks, you could consider the AP and merch savings as well; I haven't included them here since they didn't factor into our decision. Also the buy-in differential might be a little more now.)

If we want a BLT GV for family stays (still the least expensive of our home resorts) we'll have to bank/borrow/split/wait list but we can make it work.

If we *had* to sell now, sure we'd take a slight loss, but we've gotten 1 great stay out of it already, with 2-3 more lined up for the next 12 months... (come on, vaccine!!)

 

[havoc315]

• a lot of extra FPs during our trip (bought on site)

What do you mean by this? Are there extra FPs I'm unaware of? (Or simply talking about Grand Villa FPs.. but you don't need direct points for those, or do you?)

 

[kboo]

What do you mean by this? Are there extra FPs I'm unaware of? (Or simply talking about Grand Villa FPs.. but you don't need direct points for those, or do you?)

No - even though we were already DVC owners, we asked if we could get the extra (non-special) FPs since we bought points. It was like 3 anytime FPs per person, because we bought on site, took the full tour.

 

[havoc315]

No - even though we were already DVC owners, we asked if we could get the extra (non-special) FPs since we bought points. It was like 3 anytime FPs per person, because we bought on site, took the full tour.

Ahh, the tour FPs.... But you're not getting additional FPs into the future. (Now that would be a great blue card perk! All blue card members should get the option to buy 2 extra FPs per day, just like concierge guests, who can buy 3 per day).