RIviera: Standard vs Preferred

[kboo]

What's the math on VGF studios (standard and preferred)? Or is the difficulty that it's a small resort overall? Same question for BLT - seems like the LV studios stick around plenty.

 

[crvetter]

Raw room count doesn't capture the reality. Points needed to book 1BR are ~double the studios and 2BR are ~treble the points. This means the points that can be used to book studios are way less than 38%. Someone clever than me could do the count, but probably nearer 20% than 40%. This means of the total number of members who will buy Riviera, only 20% will be able to book studios, while probably a much higher percentage will buy enough points to stay only in studios. It's not as bad as CCV, but still studios won't be easy to book at 7 months.
For a more balanced resort, I would say half the points should be tied to studios.

I agree on a point basis it is much less. However, I will say that replacing the lockoffs with studios and dedicated 2 bedrooms would have been point neutral (since the 2 bedrooms are less points than 3 studios), so I’m not entirely sure we could argue that the decision was greed based. Perhaps the 3 studios would be more expensive to build, but I would guess the extra bath required would be offset by the kitchen needed in the 2 bedroom lockoffs.

As for the trading at 7 months I’m sure they probably don’t care too much about that when deciding but are more concerned about the resort itself. So I’m not sure what backing they are using to determine room mix. Considering I don’t hear too much complaining on BLT and this has a similar mix of rooms (point weighted and count), I think but will double check later, then I’m guessing on a resort basis it should be alright. Unless I’m missing the complaints on BLT but I’ve just not seen them.

 

[aoconnor]

What's the math on VGF studios (standard and preferred)? Or is the difficulty that it's a small resort overall? Same question for BLT - seems like the LV studios stick around plenty.

Not sure about studios as a % of overall units at VGF, but I agree with your point that the tiny number of studios (47) is likely the bigger factor in competition for rooms there.

One positive is standard view is a much larger percentage at VGF compared to RVA-- around 2/3rds are standard view and 1/3rd are lake view.

 

[TexasChick123]

As someone who doesn't book studios, it isn't as easy to get 2BRs as everyone thinks. Is it easier than studios? Absolutely. However, the cheapest room in every resort will always be the most sought after.

Should they then just build a resort that is 70% studios, 15% 1BRs, 14% 2BRs, and 1% grand villas? If they did this, then I would never buy into such a resort. I prefer 1Brs and 2Brs. If they built a resort with this breakdown, it would effectively turn away those of us that purchase a larger amount of points because we like to stay in bigger rooms. That means that it will result in generally having to sell more contracts for less points. Instead of selling 1x 200 point contract to one person (or even breaking it down into multiple smaller contracts but for one person), they would have to sell 4x 50 point contracts to 4 different people, for example, who are only looking to book studios. This is a tremendous amount of extra work for them, and the customer acquisition cost is now times 4 instead of 1 which means less profit. We never even considered Poly, same as many others, because it is all studios. They tried the studio-only model, and it was considered a failure by many. The resort isn't a failure as I know many love it, but DVC has repeatedly said they would never do this again because it wasn't well received to do a studio-only DVC. Let's just ignore the bungalows because they are silly points-wise.

My point is that not all of us want to stay in studios. Extremely studio-heavy resorts will result in having to find more customers and encouraging those who only want studios to buy there. People who only want studios don't typically buy as many points. People who want larger accommodations are turned off if they put down all that extra money for more points but are in heavy competition for a limited amount of larger villas. I am just trying to explain the reasoning which would be mine as well if I worked there.

 

[kboo]

Considering I don’t hear too much complaining on BLT and this has a similar mix of rooms (point weighted and count), I think but will double check later, then I’m guessing on a resort basis it should be alright. Unless I’m missing the complaints on BLT but I’ve just not seen them.

Not sure about studios as a % of overall units at VGF, but I agree with your point that the tiny number of studios (47) is likely the bigger factor in competition for rooms there.

One positive is standard view is a much larger percentage at VGF compared to RVA-- around 2/3rds are standard view and 1/3rd are lake view.

These both make sense - and BLT might be a good comparator since LV studios stick around at bit, but you pretty much need home resort advantage to get standard and (sometimes) TPV of all sizes. I would argue that BWV is the same, except that the difficulty with BWV is that all the 2BR are lockoffs, which discourages people who would want to buy to stay in 2BR because then you're artificially also competing with people who want studios. As @TexasChick123 put it, some of us want the larger units (1BR and 2BR) and prefer the 2BR dedicated units for a variety of reasons.

 

[TexasChick123]

These both make sense - and BLT might be a good comparator since LV studios stick around at bit, but you pretty much need home resort advantage to get standard and (sometimes) TPV of all sizes. I would argue that BWV is the same, except that the difficulty with BWV is that all the 2BR are lockoffs, which discourages people who would want to buy to stay in 2BR because then you're artificially also competing with people who want studios. As @TexasChick123 put it, some of us want the larger units (1BR and 2BR) and prefer the 2BR dedicated units for a variety of reasons.

It definitely played into our decision to buy RIV and sell BWV. The standard 2BRs are too much work to book at BWV even as an owner. Why own so many points at a resort when we have to battle it out against the studio owners for our 2BR? Yes, I knew this before we bought in, but I didn't realize how much I cared about just booking my 2BRs with relative ease and forgetting about it until I had to book a standard 2BR at BWV. Oh well. We all make mistakes.

 

[aoconnor]

As @TexasChick123 put it, some of us want the larger units (1BR and 2BR) and prefer the 2BR dedicated units for a variety of reasons.

I too am in 1BR and 2BR units about 75% of the time. But sometimes I do want a studio, and it would be nice if supply more accurately matched demand from the membership as a whole


It seems that increasing dedicated 2 BRs and studios while reducing 1 BRs would suit the desires of many, on these boards at least.

 

[crvetter]

As someone who doesn't book studios, it isn't as easy to get 2BRs as everyone thinks. Is it easier than studios? Absolutely. However, the cheapest room in every resort will always be the most sought after.

Should they then just build a resort that is 70% studios, 15% 1BRs, 14% 2BRs, and 1% grand villas? If they did this, then I would never buy into such a resort. I prefer 1Brs and 2Brs. If they built a resort with this breakdown, it would effectively turn away those of us that purchase a larger amount of points because we like to stay in bigger rooms. That means that it will result in generally having to sell more contracts for less points. Instead of selling 1x 200 point contract to one person (or even breaking it down into multiple smaller contracts but for one person), they would have to sell 4x 50 point contracts to 4 different people, for example, who are only looking to book studios. This is a tremendous amount of extra work for them, and the customer acquisition cost is now times 4 instead of 1 which means less profit. We never even considered Poly, same as many others, because it is all studios. They tried the studio-only model, and it was considered a failure by many. The resort isn't a failure as I know many love it, but DVC has repeatedly said they would never do this again because it wasn't well received to do a studio-only DVC. Let's just ignore the bungalows because they are silly points-wise.

My point is that not all of us want to stay in studios. Extremely studio-heavy resorts will result in having to find more customers and encouraging those who only want studios to buy there. People who only want studios don't typically buy as many points. People who want larger accommodations are turned off if they put down all that extra money for more points but are in heavy competition for a limited amount of larger villas. I am just trying to explain the reasoning which would be mine as well if I worked there.

These both make sense - and BLT might be a good comparator since LV studios stick around at bit, but you pretty much need home resort advantage to get standard and (sometimes) TPV of all sizes. I would argue that BWV is the same, except that the difficulty with BWV is that all the 2BR are lockoffs, which discourages people who would want to buy to stay in 2BR because then you're artificially also competing with people who want studios. As @TexasChick123 put it, some of us want the larger units (1BR and 2BR) and prefer the 2BR dedicated units for a variety of reasons.

Yeah this makes complete sense and looking at the RAT it is fairly obvious that the 2BR units disappear before the 7 month mark at most of the resorts, especially those close to parks, during the busy season. That is why the only thing I could have seen them do different was reduce lockoffs in favor of dedicated 2 Bedrooms and Studios; however, while that reduces the number 1 bedrooms it really does little to allow for changing desires of the owners. Plus if resale goes as cheap as some think then the 1 bedrooms become really affordable at that point.... Assuming it performs like BLT I think it should be alright.

 

[Drewferin]

I just got off the phone with my guide and asked him about the percentage of Standard vs Preferred studios. After looking on his end there was no clear answer... He also didn't want to take a wild guess. He thought that even a parking lot view would change to a Preferred category after it past the tree line.

The minimum add on at RIV is 50 points since its a new resort as compared to the 25 at sold out resorts. He also talked about May 30th as being the day for a hard or maybe soft price increase. He thought that since CCV was a hard increase already announced this would be the date for all hard increased. He didn't say if RIV would be apart of this or not. My guide at the end sounded a little annoyed at my detailed questions. Maybe I just need a spray of more pixie dust and just give him my credit card, lol.

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

So the room counts are

TS: 24
DS: 38
1Bed: 29
2Bed: 90
LockOff: 148
GV: 12

So treating the lockoffs as split we get

TS: 24
DS: 186
1Bed: 177
2Bed: 90
GV: 12

This puts studios at ~38% of the overall room counts. Really the only way to increase the studio proportions, while decreasing 1 beds, would be to decrease the lockoffs at the resort, assuming they could each have been replaced with 3 studios. This would have allowed DVC to sell more points, since 3 studios cost more, very slightly though, than a 2 bed. So their decision not to do that isn't driven out of greed, IMO. I would guess they build in a significant number of lockoffs (remember now Riviera has dedicated 1 Beds and DS so increasing the lockoff premium as discussed with BLT/SSR/etc really wouldn't work as with those resorts) because it creates some "future-proof" of the resort. So as vacation habits change there are different options at the resort. But reasonably their one thing they could have done was decrease Lockoffs and increase Studios and Dedicated 2 Beds since both are in high demand, but as I said that would be mostly point neutral so again their makeup isn't really greed driven, in my eyes.

I wonder if people shut out of studios are more likely to book shorter stays in 1 beds, rather than save their points. This would be an advantage to the membership on a whole. Saving their points is simply kicking the can down the road.

Well that's encouraging.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

On Disney's site, they're saying Standard and Preferred are resort locations, not views.

Not sure if they just borrowed the language from the Saratoga pop-up, or if they're serious.

 

[Frederic Civish]

BLT standard studios are often difficult to get. They are not dependably available at ANY time of the year, even at 11 months at the opening of the window. Lakeview are easier, and MK views are often the last in each category to book out. And BLT has a decent number of Standard view rooms. So, let's just make some guesses. Just as a rough figure, out of 300 rooms, Maybe 100 might be studios or studios in 2 bedroom lockoffs. This doesn't count the tower studios. Out of the 100 regular studios, probably approximately 2/3ds will be Preferred and 1/3rd will be Standard. This means that out of 300 rooms, maybe 35 will be Standard View Studios. I think the owners of most of the rest of those 300 rooms will actually be looking for Studios. I'm guessing Standard View Studios at Riviera will ALWAYS be in high demand, right at the 11 month window. Even if they had twice that many available. Simply because they will be the first choice of more than half the owners, all the time.

So the room counts are

TS: 24
DS: 38
1Bed: 29
2Bed: 90
LockOff: 148
GV: 12

So treating the lockoffs as split we get

TS: 24
DS: 186
1Bed: 177
2Bed: 90
GV: 12

This puts studios at ~38% of the overall room counts. Really the only way to increase the studio proportions, while decreasing 1 beds, would be to decrease the lockoffs at the resort, assuming they could each have been replaced with 3 studios. This would have allowed DVC to sell more points, since 3 studios cost more, very slightly though, than a 2 bed. So their decision not to do that isn't driven out of greed, IMO. I would guess they build in a significant number of lockoffs (remember now Riviera has dedicated 1 Beds and DS so increasing the lockoff premium as discussed with BLT/SSR/etc really wouldn't work as with those resorts) because it creates some "future-proof" of the resort. So as vacation habits change there are different options at the resort. But reasonably their one thing they could have done was decrease Lockoffs and increase Studios and Dedicated 2 Beds since both are in high demand, but as I said that would be mostly point neutral so again their makeup isn't really greed driven, in my eyes.

I wonder if people shut out of studios are more likely to book shorter stays in 1 beds, rather than save their points. This would be an advantage to the membership on a whole. Saving their points is simply kicking the can down the road.

So if 1/3rd are Standard, then that still gives about 60 Standard Studios, and I think that is going to fill up. Quickly.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

So if 1/3rd are Standard, then that still gives about 60 Standard Studios, and I think that is going to fill up. Quickly.

From what is being described for the views I wonder if it’s going to be even less that are standard view.

 

[crvetter]

From what is being described for the views I wonder if it’s going to be even less that are standard view.

The only way for the math to really work out is roughly 25% standard view (if you assume even split of views across DS, 1Bed, 2Bed, and 2BedLockoff). If you look at the points required to book all the rooms for 51 weeks vs the points declared in the POS. I ran the numbers in another post

https://www.disboards.com/threads/poll-are-you-going-to-buy-at-riviera.3736751/page-21#post-60465783

 

[crvetter]

BLT standard studios are often difficult to get. They are not dependably available at ANY time of the year, even at 11 months at the opening of the window. Lakeview are easier, and MK views are often the last in each category to book out. And BLT has a decent number of Standard view rooms. So, let's just make some guesses. Just as a rough figure, out of 300 rooms, Maybe 100 might be studios or studios in 2 bedroom lockoffs. This doesn't count the tower studios. Out of the 100 regular studios, probably approximately 2/3ds will be Preferred and 1/3rd will be Standard. This means that out of 300 rooms, maybe 35 will be Standard View Studios. I think the owners of most of the rest of those 300 rooms will actually be looking for Studios. I'm guessing Standard View Studios at Riviera will ALWAYS be in high demand, right at the 11 month window. Even if they had twice that many available. Simply because they will be the first choice of more than half the owners, all the time.



So if 1/3rd are Standard, then that still gives about 60 Standard Studios, and I think that is going to fill up. Quickly.

Yeah my point to my post was that really the room counts that Disney created weren't really to their favor for selling more points since 3 studios (same foot print as a 2 bed) go for more points than the 2 beds so they could have squeezed more points out of the resort that way (and wasn't for lockout premium since there are dedicated one beds and studios so the "synthetic" points can't be created here in the same sense at VGF/SSR/BLT/etc). I'm not really in disagreement the standards will be popular at 11 months. Just that I actually think the room counts at Riviera seem reasonably balanced considering its very similar to BLT and there isn't much of a demand imbalance at the resort (even though Standard view is hard to get people have gotten used to that it seems I see very little complaining about getting into one on DIS). Perhaps owners might want studios more, but for some reasons (not to their benefit) Disney has built in a lot of flexibility with the lockouts.

I also think the standard will be tighter because it will be likely only 25% standard view.

 

[TchrAmanda25]

For what it is worth, I had no issue booking the deluxe studio or tower at 10 months out. We decided to go with the deluxe studio. I'm hoping that I will love it- since we bought there.

 

[skier_pete]

My opinion (for what it's worth) is that the standard rooms will be difficult to get even at 11 months at certain times of year. (Let's say first two weeks of December, early November around the Marathon and maybe a few other events.) Owning at BWV I see the standard rooms there go at 11 months for certain times of year, and they run about the same percent (21% there versus 25% here).I think most of the rest of the time there SHOULD be enough rooms that you won't have too big a problem a 11 months but I would bet these rooms will be rarely available at 7 months. The only issue might be if people start walking the room reservations, which could make all of the fall trickier to get.

The tower studios forget it - walking will destroy the ability to get those without watching the RAT closely as the walkers "walk" by dates.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

For what it is worth, I had no issue booking the deluxe studio or tower at 10 months out. We decided to go with the deluxe studio. I'm hoping that I will love it- since we bought there.

Right now is not a good indicator of anything. Only about 25% of Riviera is declared and far less than that is sold.

 

[Frederic Civish]

I think most of the rest of the time there SHOULD be enough rooms that you won't have too big a problem a 11 months but I would bet these rooms will be rarely available at 7 months. The only issue might be if people start walking the room reservations, which could make all of the fall trickier to get.

The tower studios forget it - walking will destroy the ability to get those without watching the RAT closely as the walkers "walk" by dates.

Walking reservations is going to become the norm at Riviera for Tower Studios and Standard Studios. I really expect it to be a 'big problem' if you can call it a problem. Riviera is going to get squeezed by people who purchase it at resale and can't go anywhere else. I fully expect that availability at Riviera will be just a step better than Grand Californian, and fully equal to or worse than any other property in Disney World.

 

[DaveNan]

Walking is going to become the norm at Riviera for Tower Studios and Standard Studios. I really expect it to be a 'big problem' if you can call it a problem. Riviera is going to get squeezed by people who purchase it at resale and can't go anywhere else. I fully expect that availability at Riviera will be just a step better than Grand Californian, and fully equal to or worse than any other property in Disney World.

And then Disney will blame it on those nasty resale buyers. Not the fact that their point charts don't equal out the demand or the fact that their resale restrictions drive the behavior.