ROFR Thread Oct to Dec 2019 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[BcIcemen]

kim532---$100-$10485-100-SSR-Dec-0/17, 0/18, 0/19, 100/20- sent 10/9

Good Luck similar to the contract I put in for on 10/1.........waiting

 

[Bing Showei]

DVC Resal Market's ROFR report for September shows only 19 buybacks in September compared to 48 in August. No buybacks so far on 2019 Aulani, Boulder Ridge, Copper Creek, Polynesian, and Vero Beach. In addition none for the month at BCV, AKV, HHI and VGF. AKV had 130 clear with no buybacks. Only one bought back at SSR at $94 per point versus 146 that cleared.

Great news!

Is it though? What does Disney know that we don't? Last time Disney stopped buying back contracts, financial institutes were crumbling down all around us, people lost their jobs, pensions, and retirements was halved in a span of six months.

Great time to buy... just not a timeshare.

 

[Tex-Mex Disney Fan]

Is it though? What does Disney know that we don't? Last time Disney stopped buying back contracts, financial institutes were crumbling down all around us, people lost their jobs, pensions, and retirements was halved in a span of six months.

Great time to buy... just not a timeshare.

Hopefully that is not the case and Disney is just altering their strategy for now.

 

[Brianstl]

Is it though? What does Disney know that we don't? Last time Disney stopped buying back contracts, financial institutes were crumbling down all around us, people lost their jobs, pensions, and retirements was halved in a span of six months.

Great time to buy... just not a timeshare.

I don't know if it is that. It could be a combination of factors. I was reading an article yesterday about the pressure media companies are under from investors to reduce their debt. Disney has $57 billion in debt with a debt/EBITDA ratio of 3.84. That ratio is only exceeded by Netflix among the biggest media companies. There may just be an edict at Disney to now funnel as much cash flow as possible to pay down debt.

 

[Bing Showei]

I don't know if it is that. It could be a combination of factors. I was reading an article yesterday about the pressure media companies are under from investors to reduce their debt. Disney has $57 billion in debt with a debt/EBITDA ratio of 3.84. That ratio is only exceeded by Netflix among the biggest media companies. There may just be an edict at Disney to now funnel as much cash flow as possible to pay down debt.

I no longer believe Disney stockpiles points at whatever price it's selling for. I was actually suggesting that they may be seeing a trend of decreasing interest in buying points direct.

One of the reasons Disney takes time with ROFR, and many owners have observed this first hand, is that guides will reach out to their waitlist and see how serious people are about buying; calling down their list one by one. If consumer sentiment is reflecting an inability for Disney to move anything they buy back, I would think Disney would see that first and take a hard pass on contracts, regardless of pricing.

 

[SG131]

I no longer believe Disney stockpiles points at whatever price it's selling for. I was actually suggesting that they may be seeing a trend of decreasing interest in buying points direct.

One of the reasons Disney takes time with ROFR, and many owners have observed this first hand, is that guides will reach out to their waitlist and see how serious people are about buying; calling down their list one by one. If consumer sentiment is reflecting an inability for Disney to move anything they buy back, I would think Disney would see that first and take a hard pass on contracts, regardless of pricing.

Or maybe it's their next strategy to push people into Rivera. Stop selling points at other resorts and create a waitlist so people who want direct benefits have to buy there.

 

[Bing Showei]

Or maybe it's their next strategy to push people into Rivera. Stop selling points at other resorts and create a waitlist so people who want direct benefits have to buy there.

Maybe. But I suspect Disney would rather make a sale than not.

You can bet anyone asking a guide to put them on an L14 waitlist has been given the Riviera spiel. An SSR/OKW/AKV jump to Riviera May be a bridge too far for Disney to gamble losing a sale on.

 

[CLE2WDW]

anyone else curious to see what Nov and Dec holds in the ROFR reports? It seems like inventory has picked up quite a bit especially in resorts that are going to have large due hikes in 2020... might we have a fire sale on our hands?

 

[TreeFlea]

TreeFlea---$138-$10997-75-PVB-Feb-0/18, 0/19, 7/20- sent 9/16, passed 10/10

 

[eMoneyBug]

emoneybug---$85-$33411-350-AUL-Aug-0/18, 350/19, 350/20, 350/21- sent 9/23/2019, passed 10/9

 

[Matty B13]

TreeFlea---$138-$10997-75-PVB-Feb-0/18, 0/19, 7/20- sent 9/16, passed 10/10

Nice price!

 

[eMoneyBug]

Waiting for sellers to return closing documents, been a week now...urgh!

Probably on what they think is their final Disney vacation lol

 

[eMoneyBug]

You give me hope! I’m watching all these offers trying to decide whether to bid now or wait for a big drop in sales around Jan/Feb?

Gut feeling for Jan/Feb price dip or ???

 

[eMoneyBug]

kdhunter---$144-$18665-125-BLT-Feb-0/18, 0/19, 250/20, 125/21- sent 9/14, passed 10/1

kdhunter---$135-$22254-160-BLT-Feb-0/18, 0/19, 293/20, 160/21- sent 9/19, passed 10/8

kdhunter---$132-$20574-150-PVB-Mar-0/18, 0/19, 284/20, 150/21- sent 9/23, passed 10/9

WOW making big moves, Congrats. Curious, how many contracts do you own now and use years?

 

[lmhall2000]

Gut feeling for Jan/Feb price dip or ???

If I were betting on margins- the planets are aligning for a dip. Human nature really. It’s an election year (Pluto), Disney made a decision that affects buyers and sellers (Jupiter), when consumers are uncertain or driven by fear they make rash decisions (Mars), college costs are jumping - young families who bought 15 years ago with toddlers need to free up money to send Johnny off (Mercury), and this momma who has been refusing to buy REALLY wants to buy (Venus), but then there’s Earth whose gravity is annoying- but I’m still anticipating a 10-25% increase in resales the next 5 months...supply/demand...something’s gonna give. I’m already seeing some ticks downward ...just how low will be fun to watch.

 

[eMoneyBug]

I love your analysis skills, but please don't run for White House Economics Advisor

 

[flechette]

Flechette---$165-$22950-135-BLT-Feb-135/18, 135/19, 135/20, 135/21-Seller pd MF 201819- sent 10/10



Ouch - thinking we may have overpaid a bit looking at some of the other offers accepted ~

 

[hayesdvc]

hayesdvc---$117-$18299-150-BWV-Aug-0/18, 0/19, 150/20, 150/21- sent 9/20, passed 10/9

 

[bebec22]

Flechette---$165-$22950-135-BLT-Feb-135/18, 135/19, 135/20, 135/21-Seller pd MF 201819- sent 10/10



Ouch - thinking we may have overpaid a bit looking at some of the other offers accepted ~

Your price is a bit higher than others but you got a nicely loaded contract so I wouldn’t worry too much

 

[kdhunter]

WOW making big moves, Congrats. Curious, how many contracts do you own now and use years?

Thanks. We also own at Boardwalk and Wilderness Lodge, all different use years. For several years now we have been making 3-4 trips per year so they won’t go to waste. I was not sure they would all pass but was pleasantly surprised.