Royal Caribbean Restart Plans

[Husker Mike]

On their third quarter earnings call, Royal Caribbean discussed their restart plans.

https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2020/10/29/royal-caribbean-shares-prediction-early-2021-cruises
Cliffs Notes from the Royal Caribbean Blog post:

• "We are currently planning for a very limited initial return and a gradual ramp up during the first half of 2021."
• "Deployment of spring is expected to be highly focused on short sailings from key drive markets in both the U.S. and Asia-Pacific regions."
• "We propose to start slowly by training our crew and embarking on a series of non-revenue trial sailings, where we can rehearse and validate the new protocols."
• "And then only on a ship or two it first and in a gradual and methodical way, we expect to start sailing again."
• "We intend to make our ships and environment a bubble, if you will, that presents less risk of transmission than our guests would find on land."
• "It will be slower than I would wish, but faster than many are assuming."

If I had to read between the lines, the trial cruises without passengers would probably start in January, with the first passengers on a couple of boats maybe by spring break.

 

[Quellman]

I wouldn't be surprised for them to do a sailing. and then a few days of no sails to clean sterilize and adjust before they board another group. I wonder if this could indicate that they won't reload passengers the same day anymore in order to minimize exposure and people at the port.

For Disney, it might point to a strict adherence to Port Arrival Times is coming.

 

[mom4fun]

How will they do this adjusted cruise itinerary? Will they just cancel the next 8 months and then have people rebook a new itinerary and new dates? I just don’t understand how they will do. As I think about Disney, would they bring all ships to just cruise out of Florida to Caribbean ports since Europe and Canada won’t accept us?

 

[Husker Mike]

I wouldn't be surprised for them to do a sailing. and then a few days of no sails to clean sterilize and adjust before they board another group.

Everything I've read suggest that the worry about deep cleaning and sterilizing everything is overblown. The primary risk factor is airborne, and that means ventilation, filtration and social distancing.

If you are going to run a 4 day cruise, then spend 3 days deep cleaning, then another 4 day cruise... a cruise line would be better served to run a cruise on those middle days and spread out the passenger load amongst three cruises instead of two.

 

[OKW Lover]

How will they do this adjusted cruise itinerary? Will they just cancel the next 8 months and then have people rebook a new itinerary and new dates?

Just like they did with all the cruises they have canceled to date. They cancel the cruise and offer a refund or a future cruise credit. People can rebook new cruises as they see fit.

 

[Husker Mike]

Just like they did with all the cruises they have canceled to date. They cancel the cruise and offer a refund or a future cruise credit. People can rebook new cruises as they see fit.

My guess is that since they have said they are going to pick two ships, they'll pick ships that are scheduled to run short-er itineraries that will best fit this model. Those existing cruises will be the first ones to return. If Disney decides to follow this model, the Dream and Magic would seem to be the first two ships to return to service, with the Fantasy and Wonder coming later.

 

[ruadisneyfan2]

How will they do this adjusted cruise itinerary? Will they just cancel the next 8 months and then have people rebook a new itinerary and new dates? I just don’t understand how they will do. As I think about Disney, would they bring all ships to just cruise out of Florida to Caribbean ports since Europe and Canada won’t accept us?

Just because Europe won't accept us doesn't mean DCL can't accept Europeans. Right now their covid rates are pretty high but situations can change by next year.

 

[ruadisneyfan2]

My guess is that since they have said they are going to pick two ships, they'll pick ships that are scheduled to run short-er itineraries that will best fit this model. Those existing cruises will be the first ones to return. If Disney decides to follow this model, the Dream and Magic would seem to be the first two ships to return to service, with the Fantasy and Wonder coming later.

JMHO but I'd think the Dream and Fantasy being larger ships, would allow guests the space to spread out more. These would have to be a fraction of the typical amount of passengers. I'd guess something like 200 guests to start.

I so miss sitting in the WD Theater. That might be one of the last areas to reopen.

 

[Bjn10]

I mean the could cancel all of the fantasy’s 7 night sailings and switch it to pick up the Magic’s sailings out of Miami then they have 2 ships sailing. They then put the magic in dry dock and you have more room for social distance on the two big ships

 

[starvenger]

They are getting Quantum ready for some cruises to nowhere out of Singapore. There's a Youtuber named Riley Tench that will be working onboard for those cruises. I think it's worth your while to check it out.

 

[Intr3pid]

I listened in to their webcast. Some additional points to note:

1. The focus of the initial set of cruises is on shorter length out of US and Asia, making use of Coco Cay.

2. Quantum of the Seas (their ship out of Singapore) has seen a lot of demand for its initial sailings.

3. In Europe, they are roughly breaking even on a variable cost basis.

4. Net capacity will be only slightly higher in 2022/2023 compared to 2019. That is, they might sell some ships and delay new builds by 8 to 12 months -- offset by introduction of new large ships.

5. Psychologically, summer 2021 is when most people are expecting to sail. You can almost draw a line between spring and summer. Spring bookings have been largely 'lifted and shifted' or canceled/FCC'd - but not summer 2021.