[RUMOR] 2 New DCL Ships

Alice Royal

So autistic it hurts.
Joined
Aug 19, 2012
According to @rteetz , rumors are circulating around 2 new ships to be built for 2021 and 2023.

What are your feelings about this? I feel as if the potential demand could be there, but I can't get terribly excited about this if the prices keep going up and up.

Also, any guesses on names?
 
The rumors started from spirit on wdwmagic. He says they wanted them to be done earlier but shipyards are booked up until then.
 
Does anyone else think building these ships is taking away from investment in the parks? I'm not sure of the accounting and what division each is in, but building these two ships at, I would assume about 1.5 billion each, has to come from the budget somewhere. If you have 3 billion in investment in new ships over the next 6 years, it might make it hard to approve the 1 billion investment in Star Wars I want to see at Hollywood Studios.
 
Does anyone else think building these ships is taking away from investment in the parks? I'm not sure of the accounting and what division each is in, but building these two ships at, I would assume about 1.5 billion each, has to come from the budget somewhere. If you have 3 billion in investment in new ships over the next 6 years, it might make it hard to approve the 1 billion investment in Star Wars I want to see at Hollywood Studios.
Well they invested in DCA along with the newest cruise ships so I don't think that's a big issue. They also have billions invested in Shanghai right now.
 


According to @rteetz , rumors are circulating around 2 new ships to be built for 2021 and 2023.
What are your feelings about this? I feel as if the potential demand could be there, but I can't get terribly excited about this if the prices keep going up and up. Also, any guesses on names?


Maybe the addition of new ships to the fleet will lower their prices (I know I'm probably dreaming on this one). It would be interesting to know what itinerary's they're looking at and also ports. Both the Magic and Wonder are getting older - wonder if the new ships will be their replacements?

Don't know about names but I think "Disney Imagination" would be a good one.
 
Does anyone else think building these ships is taking away from investment in the parks? I'm not sure of the accounting and what division each is in, but building these two ships at, I would assume about 1.5 billion each, has to come from the budget somewhere. If you have 3 billion in investment in new ships over the next 6 years, it might make it hard to approve the 1 billion investment in Star Wars I want to see at Hollywood Studios.

Given the prices Disney charges for its cruises and the demand that their ships command, I'd think their investment in new ships would be recouped rather quickly.
 
Does anyone else think building these ships is taking away from investment in the parks? I'm not sure of the accounting and what division each is in, but building these two ships at, I would assume about 1.5 billion each, has to come from the budget somewhere. If you have 3 billion in investment in new ships over the next 6 years, it might make it hard to approve the 1 billion investment in Star Wars I want to see at Hollywood Studios.

Considering the 'premium pricing' they charge is nearly double that of other cruise lines, I'm sure DCL's profits alone could finance these ships. Fantasy was completed in 2011, first new ship in 2021. The Fantasy cost just under a billion at build, and it'll probably be closer to a billion for anything new. For perspective, RCI's newest ships are closer to 1.5 and they're HUGE compared to the Dream-class.

So, let's say 2.5 billion, generously, for two new ships. 250 million needed per year. FY 2014 posted $687 million in profit for Parks and Resorts. Not sure on numbers for DCL specifically, but even that number was lower this year because of the MyMagic investments (source).

I think DCL can easily fund these two ships without taking much away from the parks. The biggest question in my mind is what the ships will actually be. RCI is pioneering with the 'giant ship' thing. Will Disney take the hint and increase capacity with this new class? Or will they simply expand the Dream class and focus on more ships for more destinations?
 


As for names, I'm guessing Disney Adventure and Disney Enchantment, but that's not with any certainty or insider knowledge, lol.
 
Maybe the addition of new ships to the fleet will lower their prices (I know I'm probably dreaming on this one). It would be interesting to know what itinerary's they're looking at and also ports. Both the Magic and Wonder are getting older - wonder if the new ships will be their replacements?

Don't know about names but I think "Disney Imagination" would be a good one.
The replacement idea has been floated around. By the two new ships would come on board the magic and wonder would be at or close to retirement age.
 
Maybe the addition of new ships to the fleet will lower their prices (I know I'm probably dreaming on this one). It would be interesting to know what itinerary's they're looking at and also ports. Both the Magic and Wonder are getting older - wonder if the new ships will be their replacements?

Don't know about names but I think "Disney Imagination" would be a good one.

The Magic and Wonder both were designed for roughly 40 years of service. There not going anywhere anytime soon.
Rumor has it, and I honestly forgot where I saw it, is to watch for an announcement next year on the building of 2 new ships. The ships are supposed to be an in between class in size that was never built before the Dream class. (Roughly 100000 ton class compared to the Magic 88 and the Dreams 122)
Assuming that the rumor is true, then a 2020/21 launch would be about right. I looked the other day and it was roughly 4 years from the public announcement of the Dream class to her debut.

Disney doesn't have to stick with a particular yard. They can go just about anywhere to build. Meyer Werft that built the Dream class, is booked until 2020,(which would be about right) but there is still ATX, ATX in Finland, and theres a few more in Asia. Fincantieri in Italy is also a possibility.

As far as where they would go, DCL would prob boost the capacity out of PC and add prob Miami to the mix year round. It gives tem a lot of possibilities. But I would expect 3 ships year round at PC as the ships there are cash cows. Sailing 90-100% full is paying off the ships most likely early.
 
Maybe the addition of new ships to the fleet will lower their prices (I know I'm probably dreaming on this one). It would be interesting to know what itinerary's they're looking at and also ports. Both the Magic and Wonder are getting older - wonder if the new ships will be their replacements?

Don't know about names but I think "Disney Imagination" would be a good one.
Probably not replacement since they just did a upgrade on the magic and one coming for the wonder too
 
The wonder does not have any refurb plans at the moment

She does. She has one coming up and the timing is supposed to coincide with the opening of the new locks. Supposedly she is going Cadiz where the Magic went for her extended overhaul. If not it will be either Vancouver again or Freeport.
 
What is being completely missed in this discussion is that the capital markets are increasingly getting bearish on the cruise industry, due to emerging overcapacity. Demand for cruises (yes, including those on Disney) is not unlimited and the huge amount of additional tonnage and berths that have been launched in the last three years has been driving down margins (more cabins chasing a comparatively flat number of passengers). So the financial types in Anaheim may well decide that adding yet more cruise capacity is not the best way to maximize returns.
 
She does. She has one coming up and the timing is supposed to coincide with the opening of the new locks. Supposedly she is going Cadiz where the Magic went for her extended overhaul. If not it will be either Vancouver again or Freeport.
I have not seen that the wonder has a dry dock planned. Do you have a place where you can find this?
 
What is being completely missed in this discussion is that the capital markets are increasingly getting bearish on the cruise industry, due to emerging overcapacity. Demand for cruises (yes, including those on Disney) is not unlimited and the huge amount of additional tonnage and berths that have been launched in the last three years has been driving down margins (more cabins chasing a comparatively flat number of passengers). So the financial types in Anaheim may well decide that adding yet more cruise capacity is not the best way to maximize returns.

Yet the larger lines are competing in the market with 20+ ships. With Disney being able to sail almost completely sold out most of the time at 4 (and with all their ships being considerably smaller than the newest industry giants), I can't see adding 2 more driving demand down, especially if either the new or any of the old ships are permanently moved to more specialty itineraries such as Europe or Alaska. I can see 2 ships remaining in PC, 2 doing West Coast/Alaska, and 2 doing Europe pretty well.

At the end of the day I'm well aware that plans can be pulled from the table at the last possible second, but I would like to see what happens if this does come to fruition.
 
This also claims that the Magic has a second phase for this September and I haven't heard that either.

From the author of the post on the blog:

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulations require an out of water hull inspection two times in a five year period not to exceed 3 years. With the Wonder going offline for an extended period in 2016, the Magic is going in 2015 to avoid 2 ships offline in the Fall 2016. There is also a matter of scheduling at dry dock facilities.
 

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