[RUMOR] 2 New DCL Ships

[ej119]

I guess we'll have to wait and see. All i know is a Wonder dry dock refurb hasn't been confirmed yet. Its definitely expected after the Magic had theirs.

It hasn't be announced, but the Wonder will not be offering any sail dates in September and October 2016 (via DCL official website).

 

[rteetz]

It hasn't be announced, but the Wonder will not be offering any sail dates in September and October 2016 (via DCL official website).

Now that would definitely lead me to believe its getting a dry dock then. The magic took a 6 week dry dock but got another sea week added because they weren't finished in time.

 

[soniam]

As for names, I'm guessing Disney Adventure and Disney Enchantment, but that's not with any certainty or insider knowledge, lol.

I don't see Enchantment being used, since there is still an active RCCL ship with the same name. I'm trying to remember the words they use in the phone surveys to describe your call. I think I remember magical and enchanting. Was annoying one of them? I don't see Disney Annoying/Annoyance going over well

 

[Alice Royal]

I don't see Enchantment being used, since there is still an active RCCL ship with the same name. I'm trying to remember the words they use in the phone surveys to describe your call. I think I remember magical and enchanting. Was annoying one of them? I don't see Disney Annoying/Annoyance going over well

Carnival's had an entire Dream-class since 2008 and a Fantasy-class since 1990, both of which with lead ships of the same name.

 

[crazy4wdw]

What is being completely missed in this discussion is that the capital markets are increasingly getting bearish on the cruise industry, due to emerging overcapacity. Demand for cruises (yes, including those on Disney) is not unlimited and the huge amount of additional tonnage and berths that have been launched in the last three years has been driving down margins (more cabins chasing a comparatively flat number of passengers). So the financial types in Anaheim may well decide that adding yet more cruise capacity is not the best way to maximize returns.

Royal Caribbean's Oasis of the Seas will begin sailings from Port Canaveral in late 2016. It will be interesting to see if this ship has any affect on DCL's stateroom prices.

 

[truck1]

I have not seen that the wonder has a dry dock planned. Do you have a place where you can find this?

It's not written anywhere that you can simply loil it up. But ss posted above all ship have to undergo a drydock 2x in a 5 year period not to exceed 3 years. Unless the ship is under the age of 15 which they can forgo 1 drydock in place of an in water inspection. (Dream class)So basically if you follow the years that the ships go in, count 2-3 years and you have when she has to go in. If not there's several certificates that expire and the ship won't be able to sail until those are completed. The purpose of the dd is to do inspections on areas that you can't normally see or get to easily like the fuel bunkers water chests hull thickness measurements etc. While she's in lines take advantage of the down time to rehab areas.

Scott's pretty good and fairly accurate. He's looked at the schedules for the next 2 years and found the holes in scheduling where a drydock most likely will take place. He's found where the Dream has a 5 week gap which is her first drydock and also the Magics and Wonders. If I'm not mistaken the Wonders should be right around the time she comes home from the west coast next year I belive. The supposition Is that she'll do a canal crossing then a trans atlantic and go right to the yard in Cadiz. The timing would be about right for the new locks to be finished. There was also a report in the Cadiz paper that the yard ready had a contract on place for another major rehab for Disney but that articla has since disappeared. So all indications point to a mahor rehab similar to thw Magic fornthe Wonder. I'll have to go back and find the thread on the cruise board where it was basically laid out who's going and when.

 

[Alice Royal]

Royal Caribbean's Oasis of the Seas will begin sailings from Port Canaveral in late 2016. It will be interesting to see if this ship has any affect on DCL's stateroom prices.

Especially considering that the Oasis and Quantum classes specifically have a much larger Dreamworks character presence than the rest of RCI...it's not the absolute same, but from what I've seen, it's getting pretty darn close. I'm also wondering how the Broadway at Sea productions might affect things.

Oasis has Cats. Remind me, I need to book that ship whenever I win the lottery, because Cats is my favourite show.

 

[Quellman]

The Magic and Wonder both were designed for roughly 40 years of service. There not going anywhere anytime soon.
Rumor has it, and I honestly forgot where I saw it, is to watch for an announcement next year on the building of 2 new ships. The ships are supposed to be an in between class in size that was never built before the Dream class. (Roughly 100000 ton class compared to the Magic 88 and the Dreams 122)

Sadly, it doesn't mean that Disney will keep the ships for 40 years. Cruise liners often get sold off after a time to budget lines, generally in European or Asian markets. But I suspect that Disney would keep them for some time. Launch of the Magic was in 1998 - already 17 years ago. If new ships are in 2021 she'll be 23 years old. Certainly enough lifespan left to be sold off. This would help pay for new construction and take advantage of offloading an asset with presumably high sustainment costs. I can see the allure of an in-between size too. Allows the same high service of the ships without over burdening resources. Plus you can fit into more unique ports. Just because you have the biggest ships in the world, doesn't mean you can port at all the destinations..

 

[dinolounger]

Yet the larger lines are competing in the market with 20+ ships. With Disney being able to sail almost completely sold out most of the time at 4 (and with all their ships being considerably smaller than the newest industry giants), I can't see adding 2 more driving demand down, especially if either the new or any of the old ships are permanently moved to more specialty itineraries such as Europe or Alaska. I can see 2 ships remaining in PC, 2 doing West Coast/Alaska, and 2 doing Europe pretty well.

First, the "they're sold out most of the time" soundbite is thrown around here all the time but never documented. I continually receive promotions from both travel consolidators and DCL offering discounted Disney sailings. That would not be happening if the ships were perpetually sold out. Am I saying DCL is hurting? No, but having been on the Magic in mid October and the Wonder in September I can tell you that that the ships are most certainly not always full.

Second, it is much, much easier to have high %s of full cabins when your fleet is small. The bigger you get, the harder that becomes and Disney is no different. If anything, they have a higher challenge to deal when adding capacity because the universe they target (people willing to pay a significant premium for a cruise) is finite, and the growing empty nest element of that market is less interested in the Disney "kids" positioning (which is why you find those people in spades on Celebrity and Cunard).

Again, when it's all said and done this boils down to ROI. The Iger mandate is to maximize capital returns. Unless cruises are the best way to do that, the incentive to put billions more into that business just doesn't exist.

 

[Tonka's Skipper]

DCL ships are usually at high capacity levels, except during parts of the Hurricane season. They even sell out somrkmes. The bottom line is they on average sail with higher passinger levels then most other lines. This has been noted in Industry articles and publications since 1998.

The Classic could easily last 40 years in DCL livery, but are much more likely to be sold off at 30 years. They are likely to be in the far east/ South Americian market at that point.

The line could.easily increase to 6 or 8 ships by expanding the market in the far east, australia, NZ, South America.

They will also require a good deal of striping down to remove the Disney touchs....stacks, handrails, shows like animators pallet, pools and splash areas, hull decorations, etc.

Selling a easily identifiable ship is not like handing over the keys and getting a check.

AKK

 

[AquaDame]

I feel like this rumor keeps popping up.. are we sure the "new" ships aren't the river cruise one already announced for 2016? Regardless, I'd wait for an actual announcement on it first.

Would they be refurbishing the Wonder in 2016 just to sell her off 5 years later? I doubt it... they could easily market the older ships or the new ones when/if they are made into Asia and the Pacific and keep demand high here at home for the rest.

 

[Alice Royal]

I feel like this rumor keeps popping up.. are we sure the "new" ships aren't the river cruise one already announced for 2016? Regardless, I'd wait for an actual announcement on it first.

Would they be refurbishing the Wonder in 2016 just to sell her off 5 years later? I doubt it... they could easily market the older ships or the new ones when/if they are made into Asia and the Pacific and keep demand high here at home for the rest.

I've not heard of any announcements of Disney building boats for river cruises. Building any ship takes a LOT longer than a year.

 

[rteetz]

I feel like this rumor keeps popping up.. are we sure the "new" ships aren't the river cruise one already announced for 2016? Regardless, I'd wait for an actual announcement on it first.

Would they be refurbishing the Wonder in 2016 just to sell her off 5 years later? I doubt it... they could easily market the older ships or the new ones when/if they are made into Asia and the Pacific and keep demand high here at home for the rest.

It does say rumor not official. The source is usually very good. Also the river cruises are done through adventures by disney no DCL. Those river cruise are run through an outside company.

 

[rteetz]

I've not heard of any announcements of Disney building boats for river cruises. Building any ship takes a LOT longer than a year.

They aren't its being done through ABD through an outside non Disney company.

 

[Alice Royal]

They aren't its being done through ABD through an outside non Disney company.

That's what I thought. It isn't DCL at all and no new ships are being built. Therefore this rumor has nothing to do with it.

 

[mcd2745]

They aren't its being done through ABD through an outside non Disney company.

Although, this may be Disney's way of sending out a trial balloon to gague the interest for "Disney" river cruises - as river cruises have been really gaining in popularity the last couple of years - and could be a precursor to them building their own river cruise ship(s).

 

[rteetz]

Although, this may be Disney's way of sending out a trial balloon to gague the interest for "Disney" river cruises - as river cruises have been really gaining in popularity the last couple of years - and could be a precursor to them building their own river cruise ship(s).

This is true but again this rumor is specifically DCL. The river cruises are being done through Adventures by Disney.

 

[AquaDame]

Although, this may be Disney's way of sending out a trial balloon to gague the interest for "Disney" river cruises - as river cruises have been really gaining in popularity the last couple of years - and could be a precursor to them building their own river cruise ship(s).

This is true but again this rumor is specifically DCL. The river cruises are being done through Adventures by Disney.

You are all correct. They did do the Big Red Boat before DCL though... using an outside company could be preparing for something purely Disney later on.

 

[truck1]

Sadly, it doesn't mean that Disney will keep the ships for 40 years. Cruise liners often get sold off after a time to budget lines, generally in European or Asian markets. But I suspect that Disney would keep them for some time. Launch of the Magic was in 1998 - already 17 years ago. If new ships are in 2021 she'll be 23 years old. Certainly enough lifespan left to be sold off. This would help pay for new construction and take advantage of offloading an asset with presumably high sustainment costs. I can see the allure of an in-between size too. Allows the same high service of the ships without over burdening resources. Plus you can fit into more unique ports. Just because you have the biggest ships in the world, doesn't mean you can port at all the destinations..

I think it would cost them too much in the end to strip the ship of proprietary equipment to sell off to another line. Plus those ships are very well maintained. The ships that are sold off to lesser lines are usually subsidiaries of the parent. For example the Granduer of the Seas from RCCL went to pullmantuar. RCCls parent comp owns both. Most big lines have several lesser lines for lack of a better term. Its a paper shuffle more then a sale. Disney doesnt have that lesser line to transfer a ship to. What would kill a ship faster is a change in SOLAS requirements. For example, the reason the QE2 was taken out of service was a change in fire protection rules. It was cheaper to sell her then it was to upgrade the ship. Which is why she is supposed to become a floating hotel restaurant last I heard.

 

[truck1]

First, the "they're sold out most of the time" soundbite is thrown around here all the time but never documented. I continually receive promotions from both travel consolidators and DCL offering discounted Disney sailings. That would not be happening if the ships were perpetually sold out. Am I saying DCL is hurting? No, but having been on the Magic in mid October and the Wonder in September I can tell you that that the ships are most certainly not always full.

Second, it is much, much easier to have high %s of full cabins when your fleet is small. The bigger you get, the harder that becomes and Disney is no different. If anything, they have a higher challenge to deal when adding capacity because the universe they target (people willing to pay a significant premium for a cruise) is finite, and the growing empty nest element of that market is less interested in the Disney "kids" positioning (which is why you find those people in spades on Celebrity and Cunard).

Again, when it's all said and done this boils down to ROI. The Iger mandate is to maximize capital returns. Unless cruises are the best way to do that, the incentive to put billions more into that business just doesn't exist.

The last 3 cruises I've been on there have been signs in the terminal and the gs counters saying sorry no upgrades ship is full. I'm going again in July. If I see the sign I'll take a pic of it and post it.