Running some numbers and have questions.

[toontoy]

Hey all, with all the DVC talk and the DVC shows and things I wanted to look into some things. I am looking at Beach club in particular and was looking at the points chart and it looks like a 1 bedroom is 255 points a week during the Dream season which is when we typically travel.

I have been running some numbers and its not adding up for me. I am wondering what I am missing. This is what I have
the contract expires in January of 2042 so 2041 is the last use year. This leaves approx 21 years left for most contracts with 2020 points only I have been looking at. The average cost is $135 per point. This breaks down to a point cost per year of $1639.29. The Maintenance fee looks like its just under $7.00 for this year at 6.9415. so for the first year if the maintenance fee didn't increase the week would cost $3409.37

This is where I am puzzled and for this year I found the weeks we would go and with tax it was hovering right around $3700 on disneyworld.com. This is with the promo we have noticed last year and this year. Is the one bedroom the worst value when buying or am I missing something. We usually always travel in a 1 bedroom as we have a 3 year old and studious do not work and a 2 bedroom seems to much for 3 people.

 

[Lumpy1106]

In a word, inflation. The room is $3700 this year, how about next year, or in 10 years?

Otherwise, yes, you have brought up the problem I see approaching with the 2042 resorts.

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

We regularly stay in 1BRs for the W/D convenience but they are the least cost-effective type of room however we have found that they are still usually a bit less than paying cash.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

BCV is a small resort, and popular. This drives up the cost of points in resale although it's a short-time resort. Even a 1BR is hard in Dream season if you do not have home resort, because whatever remains get gobbled up early at 7 months. People want SAB in summer. February is a little easier.

But because it's a 2042 resort, the value is approaching a point of diminishing returns.

I never recommend buying a 2042 to "play the field" for DVC for a new purchaser. You buy 2042 resorts now solely for home resort advantage, and recognize that you're paying a premium to stay there.

 

[jarestel]

DVC is really just a prepaid vacation plan where you lock in your accommodation costs for, in your case, the next 21 years at today's prices. It's certainly possible to save some $$$ with DVC but increases in MFs will erode some of those savings as will booking more frequent trips with DVC than you did pre-DVC. It mostly boils down to "do you want to pay Disney now or later"?

 

[clutter]

If you substitute other resorts with later expiration dates, the cost goes down. A 1BR savannah view at AKV is just under $2,600, for instance.

The other thing to factor in is whether you plan to keep it until it expires. (Although with only 21 years remaining, that's more likely than with 37 or 40 years remaining.) I purchased BCV back in 2007. When my dd got into her teens, in 2013, I sold that contract for within maybe $100 (including closing costs) of what I'd paid for it. So I had a number of years of vacations for literally the cost of the MFs. I've kept some smaller ones for me.

 

[jerseyduke]

Without running the numbers, I would say beach club is a terrible buy.
It is way too expensive for a 2042 resort.

A few years back, the DVC sales information at the Kiosks said "save up to 70% on future vacations". Then they raised the price, and all that marketing material then read 50%.
This was back when points where like 170$ - for 50 years. Disney must use some formula for this, and my guess is that if you plugged the beach club numbers into it, there would be no savings - even at resale prices. Certainly not with direct prices - that is just insanity!

The only case I think you can "save" or that makes the BCV a good buy is if you plan on keeping it for about 5 years. I think it should still have some resale value with 15 years left. The depreciation of the contract and the dues paid have a decent chance (I think) of being less than cash to rent the same room.

Our of curiosity, did you use a value for return on investment over the next 20 years of the upfront purchase price as well? That would shrink the savings you came up with even more.

I love the beach club. I have been able to switch out to it for the past few dapper day spring weekends, and even once for food and wine. More points are on my horizon, and even with my love of BC, I would not buy there. For my April 4 day weekend, I book at one of my home resorts, then try to switch. If I can not I will consider paying cash for the Beach club.

I can not see paying more than 120 per point for a 2042 resort (that is a number off of the top of my head)

 

[Madame]

Without running the numbers, I would say beach club is a terrible buy.
It is way too expensive for a 2042 resort.

A few years back, the DVC sales information at the Kiosks said "save up to 70% on future vacations". Then they raised the price, and all that marketing material then read 50%.
This was back when points where like 170$ - for 50 years. Disney must use some formula for this, and my guess is that if you plugged the beach club numbers into it, there would be no savings - even at resale prices. Certainly not with direct prices - that is just insanity!

The only case I think you can "save" or that makes the BCV a good buy is if you plan on keeping it for about 5 years. I think it should still have some resale value with 15 years left. The depreciation of the contract and the dues paid have a decent chance (I think) of being less than cash to rent the same room.

Our of curiosity, did you use a value for return on investment over the next 20 years of the upfront purchase price as well? That would shrink the savings you came up with even more.

I love the beach club. I have been able to switch out to it for the past few dapper day spring weekends, and even once for food and wine. More points are on my horizon, and even with my love of BC, I would not buy there. For my April 4 day weekend, I book at one of my home resorts, then try to switch. If I can not I will consider paying cash for the Beach club.

I can not see paying more than 120 per point for a 2042 resort (that is a number off of the top of my head)

Yes, but the problem is that BCV is hard to get as a rental, so you're playing the 7 month game as a renter and up against owners with whom BCV is also extremely popular at 7 months. You can't rent BCV on a consistent basis even during less popular times (maybe a 1 bd, but not consistently).

 

[jerseyduke]

I have no rental experience, is it difficult to find points at 11 months? I can not see it being hard to get a 1 bedroom anywhere at 11 months, but you obviously do need the points.

From January 13th on in 2020 1 bedrooms at the beach club are 100% available. So at the 7th month mark, yes its a crap shoot.

If you want it guaranteed, I guess you have no choice.

But I do not see how you can crunch the numbers and come up with beach club DVC being a way to "save money", even on the resale market. My assertion was purely a mathematical one.

 

[Madame]

I have no rental experience, is it difficult to find points at 11 months? I can not see it being hard to get a 1 bedroom anywhere at 11 months, but you obviously do need the points.

From January 13th on in 2020 1 bedrooms at the beach club are 100% available. So at the 7th month mark, yes its a crap shoot.

If you want it guaranteed, I guess you have no choice.

But I do not see how you can crunch the numbers and come up with beach club DVC being a way to "save money", even on the resale market. My assertion was purely a mathematical one.

Many like myself bought BCV at a high rate with the intentions of staying there the majority of the time. I won't rent my BCV points and I assume I am not alone. If you visit the rental sites the majority of points for rent are SSR, AKV, OKW. I've rented my SSR points, but always at the 7 month window. BW, AKV, BRV all in spring/summer. No BCV though, because even the 1bds are gobbled up at the 7 month point quickly by other owners who want but do not own at BCV.

ETA most renters are looking for studios as well. They rent to save money. Once you get into 1bd territory your savings diminish quickly. A quick look at Disney pricing for BCV shows why even at $130ish pp, owning at BCV will save you money.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

It can be hard to get BCV points in home resort as a renter. Demand is higher than supply.

 

[CarolMN]

...........(snip)........................I can not see paying more than 120 per point for a 2042 resort (that is a number off of the top of my head)

Sadly, the way ROFR is going, one wouldn't be able to get BCV at $120 pp. Disney has been taking those. Probably be looking at upper 130's at a minimum and even those would have a risk of getting taken.

 

[toontoy]

What are the typical dues increases, it seems like they hover around 12% or so. I have noticed room rates have been increasing about the same. The other resorts I am debating are the Poly and the Bay lake tower. I usually book vacations a year in advance since I travel quite often for work and thats planned out well before then. how much cheaper are the other resorts?

 

[crvetter]

Sadly, the way ROFR is going, one wouldn't be able to get BCV at $120 pp. Disney has been taking those. Probably be looking at upper 130's at a minimum and even those would have a risk of getting taken.

Most at 140 were being taken too recently. Mine stripped until 2020 was taken at 140 and a few others around that range was taken. It seems 140-145 is about a 50% of passing. For the number of resales (according to DVC Resale Market) BCV is the highest buy back rate.

 

[crvetter]

What are the typical dues increases, it seems like they hover around 12% or so. I have noticed room rates have been increasing about the same. The other resorts I am debating are the Poly and the Bay lake tower. I usually book vacations a year in advance since I travel quite often for work and thats planned out well before then. how much cheaper are the other resorts?

12% is way too high. Here is a post about the average dues increase for each resort from inception of that particular resort and the average annual increase from 2017. BCV and BWV are some of the most expensive resorts on the resale market when consider 2042 expiration and purchase price.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...discussion-information.3750009/#post-60623368

 

[jerseyduke]

The ROFR boards kind of suggest that even 140 is a crap shoot to pass.
Of course not that Disney can move the UY around, and has the direct price of what, 225? they are going to get more aggressive with ROFR.

(And there is NO WAY anyone is saving money buying a 2042 resort at 225 a point)

If you are unable to get the desired room with cash (booking or rental) then "savings" is really a moot argument - you have to buy DVC, or you can not have it, and that;s all she wrote. (Who is "she" anyway?)

I love the BC, it is probably on my top 3 list. It is just when factoring in return on investment of the principle, inflation, time value of money, etc, etc, I can not make the numbers work for me and a studio.

On the flip side, if it is a savings at 145. If that is the case, Disney gave the VGF away at 150 considering it has an extra 20 years on the contract.

 

[toontoy]

I think I will have to look at the monorail resorts and do some more math. I really like the beach club and have stayed multiple times, but just couldn't manage to get the numbers to work.

Thanks everyone for your help and input, it seems like I wasn't missing anything.

 

[GoofyCoaster]

I think I will have to look at the monorail resorts and do some more math. I really like the beach club and have stayed multiple times, but just couldn't manage to get the numbers to work.

You’re not alone. Beach club is one of our favorite resorts and we couldn’t make the resale numbers work either. The price per point and point requirement was high relative to the number of years left on the deed.

I think most who purchase Beach Club now are doing it for love of the resort and location, not because it’s a deal. It’s where they want to stay and the home resort advantage is needed.

$225pp direct is hard to fathom. But people are still buying even at that price - new BC deeds from DVD are showing up on the comptroller site.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Also, the monorail resorts, you pretty much have to look at resale to make the numbers make sense.

 

[Henwen88]

BCV is a funny one. I am one of those people who bought there specifically to stay there (in Oct/Nov, and occasionally June). I loved the resort, but never could find these 'deals' that people refer to... they were there, but never for the room I wanted or the dates I needed. I got a hotel side convention room rate once for 8 nights and was hooked (was like $200/night). We needed larger units, so discovered the villas but still did not own any DVC, so paid cash (thru CRO, ugh) in the $8000 range for a 2 BR. (This was 2010-2012ish).

On that trip I discovered DVC and bought resale SSR for pretty much the price of my last vacation the following year. However, years later we still could not get that long weekend we wanted for food and wine in BCV, so I caved and paid way more than I wanted (at the time) for a BCV 100 pointer. Figured that money was flushed down the drain due to age of contract, etc., but it looks like it has appreciated around $40-50/pp since then.

You can try to apply all the logic in the world (trust me, I did too) but sometimes DVC defies all explanation. I think we ignore the very large emotional component. I know within the past year, I have been waffling almost weekly about selling my 2 larger contracts (oh yeah, I had to buy VGF too b/c I couldn't get the rooms I wanted there either, lol), but something keeps pulling me back in. Then DVC management will do something to tick me off again, but that's another story....