- Jul 4, 2019
I meant to write...I use skier_pete’s charts to help guide my choices... one of multiple factors to make my DVC point buying decisions with regards to my sleep-around points (SAP). Another is the “Most Economical Resort Ranking” compiled by a large resaler. Finally, re-selling my current SAP in 10-15 yrs time is likely when my youngest is off to college. Based on historical trends, I would be able to either fund the purchase of “new” exclusive-use points to fit our “new” booking patterns or buy the “new” “most-economical SAP”.I think using skier_pete's charts to make those decisions is not wise unless you don't mind staying at your home resort or whatever is available when you book. Skier_pete's charts are excellent, but they are a snapshot in time - and over the fifteen plus years I've owned, those patterns have changed drastically. I don't know what they will look like five or ten years from now - nor does anyone else. DVC is for the long term - buying a resort now because its cheap and you never intend to stay there and one bedrooms are always available at seven months when you travel won't work if five years from now one bedroom points are lowered to increase demand for those units and Disney puts an event smack dab in your favorite season.
While true, we don’t know with certainty exactly what things will look like five or ten years from now, we all can only make our best predictions based on the data we have now. There is one thing I can predict with high confidence (to paraphrase an astute observation): prices for DVC direct sale points today will be the cheapest I will see going into the future. Today’s average prices will be lower than those in 10-15 years time. Best way to mitigate risk in the face of uncertainty, in my opinion, is flexibility. Luckily, DVC economics affords us that flexibility.