@sgerto - if that's your "Tuesday" plan on TP.com for November 13, I'm happy to have our Disneyland guy, Guy, run through that to see how it actually works in the parks. Let me know if you're interested, and if Guy needs to do anything special about walking times, breaks, etc, that are not part of the plan.
Some stats on our Disneyland predictions, which use a 1-to-10 scale for estimating wait times:
Disneyland estimates are +/- 1.14 over the past week.
+/- 1.07 over the last 30 days
+/- 1.18 over the last quarter
+/- 1.24 for all of 2018
The predictions are exactly right about 27% of the time. We're +/- 1 over 63% of the time this year.
For DCA: +/- 2.00 over the last week
+/- 1.23 over the last 30 days
+/- 1.12 over the last quarter
+/- 1.35 for all of 2018
Exactly right 24% of the time, and have been +/- 1 on 60% of dates.
I don't think it's possible to predict wait times to any closer than +/- 0.90 on our scale. Disney's own posted wait times aren't accurate enough to get below that.
If you wanted to compare that to just guessing: Suppose you just said every day of the year was going to be a '6' at Disneyland (the most common crowd level seen so far in 2018), you'd be right about 21% of the time, and +/-1 about 51% of the time. Not as good as the calendar.
That's not really
guessing, of course - we've already defined the wait time ranges, the distributions, and the scale; also I picked the most accurate "guess" possible. But for the sake of comparison, ignore all that.