Well, the question was "When [will] the crowds at Galaxy's Edge will shrink down?" That link outlines the answer to that question. <shrug> This is a reality that settled in once we had been a DVC member for ten or fifteen years. Crowding doesn't matter. We'll be back next year and the year after that, and we're committed to return even in recessions when other guests will be hunkering down on staycations. Despite the unfortunate circumstances, eventually we'll "enjoy" lower crowding for a few years, and so that is when we will visit the attractions with insanely long waits now.
Thanks for expanding the rationale on your link; it now makes more sense to me.
The link provides a, not necessarily the, answer to crowd levels predicted at SWGE. I see several bucket of potentials related to guest and crowd levels.
Bucket 1: In a more thriving economy, WDW guests will be able to afford to travel from afar (non local) to visit SWGE.
Bucket 2: In a more struggling economy (less disposable income), some guests will think they can afford to visit SWGE and are willing to leverage liquid assets to visit.
Bucket 3: As Florida continues to grow in population (#3 in the country and near nation leading pace), there will be enough locals that will help offset economic losses from bucket 1.
Bucket 4: Expanding on bucket #2, there will be those guests that are willing to leverage those liquid assets knowing full well they cannot afford to visit SWGE, but want to showcase they were among the first to visit.
Bucket 5: As you say, DVC members are committed to the contracts. With the new DVC resorts coming online very soon (and plans for Reflections), there could be enough of these members to keep SWGE at WDW packed for quite some time.
Bucket 6: Exactly as you said, a recession will effect the crowd levels holistically.
That's all I can think of right now, but I'm sure there are other "buckets" of guests that I am missing.