Thoughts on Lowball Offer

[Kickstart]

Thanks ABE4DISNEY and LiquidIce!

I'm thinking prices will trend down over the next year, but I'm happy to pull the trigger now at that price.

Another thing I was considering was trying to find two contracts being sold by the same seller, and making an offer to purchase both contracts.

I confirmed that BL60856 and BL60855 on DVC Resale Market are being sold by the same seller. I was debating making a low ball offer for both of them, but the asking price was high and it would be more points than I'd really want to maintain right now... and I heard back on the contract I ended up going with. But for someone looking for around 300 BLT points - maybe keep an eye on these two and make an offer if they reduce the price.

 

[Kylie_1504]

So do folks here think that $90-95 for AKV is about "right" in the current market (e.g., 160 point contract) and those asking $115+ are over-priced?

Or would you consider $90-95 a "lowball" offer?

If the former, what would you consider to be a "lowball" offer? $80-85?

Do you consider it a "lowball" offer if it's far below asking price, even if the asking price is way too high? Or is it just considered a "lowball" offer it is below the "market" price?

I’m making offers on AKL 160 points for $100 and feel like it’s a fair price but they are not budging for less than $108. I’m cool to wait it out.

 

[sethschroeder]

I was looking at a small BLT contract in my UY that recently popped up (they don't seem to very often) but keep thinking about if I buy direct it would make sense but if I don't buy direct than I will miss out on some killer BLT deals in the next year on larger contracts.

I don't need the points now and with an spring UY I likely can find a loaded contract anyways for when we would go in Jan 2022.

 

[Kickstart]

I've been musing on how ROFR has started back up (maybe not significantly, but it's no longer non-existent), and how my lowball contract is now at risk... and what I would do if it was taken.

Thinking about it is pretty frustrating. I put the effort in to negotiate a great deal and then Disney can take it after sitting on it for 6 weeks. I know I can "go find another deal", but it takes effort and time... plus the 6 weeks of waiting. If the turn-around on ROFR was a couple of weeks it would be easier to stomach. It kind of makes me think Disney uses this to their advantage to persuade potential buyers to buy direct.

Anyway... my point it, sure "they can't take them all", but they can make the process very inefficient to their benefit. If my contract in ROFR ends up being taken I would likely look for another lowball opportunity. But if the next one was also taken, I might throw the towel in and just rent or purchase the smallest possible contract direct and trade in points.

On the flip side.. I'm wondering if I should approach it more proactively. Should I be looking for the next lowball offer now?
Which then got me wondering... what about putting in another offer while I'm waiting on ROFR?

Which then got me wondering:

What is lowest risk resort resale contract to put a lowball offer in on, that has the best potential of coming out above water if I had to rent or flip it? Some options are:

• BWV or GFV - because prices there seem to have corrected more than others in the last year - and likely will "rebound" more when the DVC market comes backe?
• Resorts with lower MF's (GFV, BLT, GCV, SSR) to maximize rental income
• Stick with BLT, since it's the resort I want to own

Thoughts?

 

[poofyo101]

I've been musing on how ROFR has started back up (maybe not significantly, but it's no longer non-existent), and how my lowball contract is now at risk... and what I would do if it was taken.

Thinking about it is pretty frustrating. I put the effort in to negotiate a great deal and then Disney can take it after sitting on it for 6 weeks. I know I can "go find another deal", but it takes effort and time... plus the 6 weeks of waiting. If the turn-around on ROFR was a couple of weeks it would be easier to stomach. It kind of makes me think Disney uses this to their advantage to persuade potential buyers to buy direct.

Anyway... my point it, sure "they can't take them all", but they can make the process very inefficient to their benefit. If my contract in ROFR ends up being taken I would likely look for another lowball opportunity. But if the next one was also taken, I might throw the towel in and just rent or purchase the smallest possible contract direct and trade in points.

On the flip side.. I'm wondering if I should approach it more proactively. Should I be looking for the next lowball offer now?
Which then got me wondering... what about putting in another offer while I'm waiting on ROFR?

Which then got me wondering:

What is lowest risk resort resale contract to put a lowball offer in on, that has the best potential of coming out above water if I had to rent or flip it? Some options are:

• BWV or GFV - because prices there seem to have corrected more than others in the last year - and likely will "rebound" more when the DVC market comes backe?
• Resorts with lower MF's (GFV, BLT, GCV, SSR) to maximize rental income
• Stick with BLT, since it's the resort I want to own

Thoughts?

All the resorts you listed are at risk of buyback.
The ones not at risk are
Aulani
Polynesian
Copper Creek

 

[sethschroeder]

and what I would do if it was taken.

Put in lower offers than you got the first one for.

Disney is not buying them all back, there will continue to be more contracts listed like normally happens every fall, and crowds will continue to be tiny so direct buyers will stay small.

There is going to be a little tick up in ROFR because of the 100 to 125 increase after which it will get fairly quite.

Disney is not going to just buy every contract out there to hold on to for years.

Example they buy 100 contracts sell 10 this month, same next month, and so on. We are talking about that for the next roughly 12 months until WDW is likely filling up again or maybe longer.

If you absolutely need your contract now though you possibly offer a tad more just make sure it goes through. Same with some people just buy direct to avoid the resale delays.

 

[Kickstart]

Thanks...

I don't need a contract now. I would like to use points starting mid 2022, so I have time.

My concern is I think the DVC market may bounce back quicker than our current consensus. It's possible consumer confidence is much better 3-6 months from now. Considering it takes at least two months to find a low ball deal and get to the end of ROFR, that only leaves 1-3 tries to take advantage of the depressed DVC market.

From a consumer confidence viewpoint, this doesn't look as bad as 2009. That may change of course.

 

[poofyo101]

Thanks...

I don't need a contract now. I would like to use points starting mid 2022, so I have time.

My concern is I think the DVC market may bounce back quicker than our current consensus. It's possible consumer confidence is much better 3-6 months from now. Considering it takes at least two months to find a low ball deal and get to the end of ROFR, that only leaves 1-3 tries to take advantage of the depressed DVC market.

From a consumer confidence viewpoint, this doesn't look as bad as 2009. That may change of course.

Honestly there is not much to bounce back from. The price has fluctuated very little in my opinion. A lot of other people have different opinions about the economy and dvc values. The only one that has seen significant change IMO is VGF and it was too high several months ago anyway. The brokers are selling more contracts than ever before. Sure there are some good deals to be had, but that is with anything. Going through the ROFR thread I would say there are still more deals at "market" value than "good/great" deals for the last few months. There have been some very good ones, but for the most part a lot of average ones to me.

 

[Kickstart]

.... The brokers are selling more contracts than ever before. ... Going through the ROFR thread I would say there are still more deals at "market" value than "good/great" deals for the last few months. There have been some very good ones, but for the most part a lot of average ones to me.

I was thinking the same thing, not really seeing many "deals" in the ROFR thread. Considering how long ROFR and point transfers take, I'm surprised there's so much support for the current prices we're seeing. 4-5 months to actually have your points in your account. And now having to be careful not to offer too low of a price so that it doesn't get snatched up at the 1-2 month mark, which will just reset the 4-5 month clock.

 

[sethschroeder]

Thanks...

I don't need a contract now. I would like to use points starting mid 2022, so I have time.

My concern is I think the DVC market may bounce back quicker than our current consensus. It's possible consumer confidence is much better 3-6 months from now. Considering it takes at least two months to find a low ball deal and get to the end of ROFR, that only leaves 1-3 tries to take advantage of the depressed DVC market.

From a consumer confidence viewpoint, this doesn't look as bad as 2009. That may change of course.

So low ball offers may stop being accepted but if you look at historical ROFR you will see prices don't really change that quickly upwards. Worst case is $2-$3/point extra but the upside is you save $10-$20/point.

Its all about risk tolerance for yourself and if you want to cash in on the slightly depressed contracts on certain resorts.

I am likely buying direct myself but I have offered on a couple resale contracts that I would be fine with getting and ignoring getting a direct contract.

 

[My3kids1989]

I feel rude offering 30$ less than asking. But I think $135 is really high for AKL. They will probably tell me to stick it.

 

[ldo]

I feel rude offering 30$ less than asking. But I think $135 is really high for AKL. They will probably tell me to stick it.

That's a crazy price unless it's a really small contract. IMHO, 150+ AKV points market rate is about $104-112 (max) depending on loaded/stripped. Some brokers have unrealistic listing prices. I was a seller a few weeks ago. It seems pricing might have ticked up a bit. But, when I listed with a well-known broker (who said $105 was about market rate) at $108, I got ZERO full price offers, but several offers at $100-104. My floor was $105, which I accepted. It was a nonloaded/nonstripped 160 point contract with 2 month delayed closing (reason why I was willing to discount off of $108).

 

[Sandisw]

I feel rude offering 30$ less than asking. But I think $135 is really high for AKL. They will probably tell me to stick it.

I did that in the spring And while we didn’t come to an agreement, they did come down at least halfway in most cases.

 

[Royal Consort]

Some sellers have unrealistic expectations and perceive market price to be lowballing. I made an offer on a 160 point subsidized Aulani contract that was listed at $129. Offered $94 which wasn't countered and then $104 which I thought was fair and heard nothing back from the broker. Contract is still sitting there obviously.

 

[Liquidice]

It isn't rude to offer something reasonable but below what the market price is. Perhaps it is considered rude if you were going offer a price 50% off or something - but it seems like brokers / sellers are often listing prices higher than what the seller is willing to let points go for. If you go through the ROFR thread you'll get an idea of the market price - and then start somewhere below that. Maybe 10% off or so the market price. Worse case - the seller isn't interested and they will decline the offer, and you move on to the next contract. If you want an accepted offer, up the price a bit closer to the market price or just go and offer at the market price.

But if a listing is priced too high and the seller does not want to come down - I would just move on. Its possible the seller is not in a rush to sell (kind of like the "Pay me to move" price on zillow).

 

[CastAStone]

I feel rude offering 30$ less than asking. But I think $135 is really high for AKL. They will probably tell me to stick it.

The 100 point one on DVCRM?

YOLO might as well try. It’s still clearly a sellers market for AKV and VGC so they’ll probably get at least $118 from someone if they’re willing to wait it out.

If you’re talking about the 160 point one on DVCRM, lowball away, there’s a ton of 160 point inventory out there at far better prices.

 

[My3kids1989]

That's a crazy price unless it's a really small contract. IMHO, 150+ AKV points market rate is about $104-112 (max) depending on loaded/stripped. Some brokers have unrealistic listing prices.

I think so too, it’s 100 so i would think
it’ll get a counter.

The 100 point one on DVCRM?

YOLO might as well try. It’s still clearly a sellers market for AKV and VGC so they’ll probably get at least $118 from someone if they’re willing to wait it out.

If you’re talking about the 160 point one on DVCRM, lowball away, there’s a ton of 160 point inventory out there at far better prices.

Hopefully they won’t want to haha

I’ve got points I want for this year, I’m looking for SAP but SSR feels so meh idk why seems like everyone is happy with it. I guess I want to chase the concierge unicorn.

I’m not in a huge hurry but I started shopping April and I still don’t have points so if I want something by next year I feel like I should start shopping.

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

I was thinking the same thing, not really seeing many "deals" in the ROFR thread. Considering how long ROFR and point transfers take, I'm surprised there's so much support for the current prices we're seeing.

Just my two cents, but I think that there are a good number of veteran DVCers who are taking the opportunity to add on during this dip.

We initially purchased in 2009-2011...during the recession when prices were AMAZING....and we have always regretted not buying more. Also, I'm sure you are aware that in the past decade DVC prices have increased exponentially--not at all at the rate that I thought, and prices are getting even more INSANE. So this was our opportunity to scoop up some extra points while there was at least a decent market dip.

Finally, I have experienced a paradigm shift in my DVC thinking. Now I compare to the direct prices a great deal more and think, "Hey, this is $100 cheaper than direct." (Btw, I think direct can make sense if you are close in resale price to the direct price especially to get those benefits, but direct BCV at $235? I will take my $135 price any day over that.)

You are right though, the deals aren't as good as they used to be.

However, I bet that as Disney prices climb again, I will probably wish that I had purchased even more!

 

[lovethesun12]

Honestly there is not much to bounce back from. The price has fluctuated very little in my opinion. A lot of other people have different opinions about the economy and dvc values. The only one that has seen significant change IMO is VGF and it was too high several months ago anyway. The brokers are selling more contracts than ever before. Sure there are some good deals to be had, but that is with anything. Going through the ROFR thread I would say there are still more deals at "market" value than "good/great" deals for the last few months. There have been some very good ones, but for the most part a lot of average ones to me.

Honestly I don't know what to think anymore. This statement is true based on what I have seen too. But on the other hand, I have had brokers tell me (in the manner this was discussed I believe the comments to be honest) that sellers are taking large losses in the market right now. I've also seen many of the contracts I was interested in months ago (mostly 150+) still on the market at their list prices.

It does depend on the resort you are watching as well. Either way I know from my current contract in ROFR that I need to wait for the rest. I feel unsettled.

 

[MICKIMINI]

There always seems to be a 2-3 month lag for prices to go down and I think we may be at the "top" for this summer season. Funny how prices seem to go up overnight. I'm watching several low point contracts (under 100) that have been listed for several weeks which tells me the skyrocketing asking prices may have peaked. They are each about $20 over what would have been considered a strong asking price back in June (seems like years ago). My guess is the owners have declined several offers already. I'll continue to watch (for analysis only) to see if they go UA, get reduced or I talk DH in another contract!